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Global Environmental Change and Food Security in IGP Site 1, Gujrat, Pakistan Seminar on ‘GECAFS Research on Food System and Global Environmental Change in Indo- Gangetic Plains (IGP), 5-7 February 2009, New Delhi, India Study site 1: Gujrat Projected Changes in Average Temperature of

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global environmental change and food security in igp site 1 gujrat pakistan

Global Environmental Change and Food Security in IGP Site 1, Gujrat, Pakistan

Seminar on ‘GECAFS Research on Food System and Global Environmental Change in Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), 5-7 February 2009,

New Delhi, India

slide3

Projected Changes in Average Temperature of

Northern and Southern Pakistan

(Corresponding to IPCC A2 Scenario)

6

northern pp pakistan

southern pp pakistan

Northern Pakistan

Southern Pakistan

5

4

3

Temperature Change (°C)

2

1

0

1990s

2020s

2050s

2080s

3

Period

slide4

Projected Changes in Average Precipitation of Northern and Southern Pakistan

(Corresponding to IPCC A2 Scenario

20

northern pp pakistan

southern pp pakistan

Northern Pakistan

Southern Pakistan

15

10

Precipitation Change (%)

5

0

-5

-10

1990

2020

2050

2080

4

Period

some projected changes in river flows due to melting of hkh glaciers as reported in recent studies
Some Projected Changes in River Flows due to Melting of HKH Glaciers (As reported in recent studies)

IPCC TAR (2001):Increased glacier melt in the Himalayas may cause serious floods in Nepal, India and Bangladesh.

World Bank (2006):Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years.

IPCC AR4 (2007):Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.

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