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The Power to Reduce CO 2 Emissions The Full Portfolio WSPE Discovery Conference. April 23, 2009 Dan Bartel, EPRI Senior Account Executive. About EPRI. Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity.

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The power to reduce co 2 emissions the full portfolio wspe discovery conference

The Power to Reduce CO2 EmissionsThe Full PortfolioWSPE Discovery Conference

April 23, 2009

Dan Bartel, EPRI

Senior Account Executive


About EPRI

Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity

  • Founded in 1973 as an independent, nonprofit center for public interest energy and environmental research.

  • Objective, tax-exempt, collaborative electricity research organization

  • Science and technology focus--development, integration, demonstration and applications

  • Broad technology portfolio ranging from near-term solutions to long-term strategic research


Large and Successful R&D Collaboration

  • More than 450 participants in over 40 countries

    • Over 90% of North American electricity generated

  • 66 technical programs

    • Generation

    • Power Delivery and Utilization

    • Nuclear

    • Environment

    • Technology Innovation

  • 1600+ R&D projects annually

  • 10 to 1 average funding leverage

  • Research is directed to the public benefit

  • Limited regulatory, judicial and legislative participation


Basic

Research

&

Development

Collaborative

Technology

Development

Integration

Application

Technology

Commercialization

National Laboratories

Universities

EPRI

Suppliers

Vendors

EPRI’s Role

Depends Upon The Specific Technology or Discipline


The Bottom Line – It’s Not a Silver Bullet, It’s Silver Buckshot: Using Technology to Reduce Carbon Emissions

  • There is substantial potential for reducing U.S. electricity sector CO2 emissions.

  • Decarbonizing the electricity sector will be expensive, but availability of a full portfolio of low-cost, low-carbon technologies can substantially reduce costs to the nation’s economy.

  • No one technology will be a silver bullet – a portfolio of technologies will be needed.

  • A low carbon-emitting electric sector is critical to decarbonizing the rest of the U.S. economy at a manageable cost.

  • Much of the needed technology isn’t available yet – substantial R&D, demonstration is required.

  • The economic and environmental benefits of a full portfolio of low-emitting technologies far outweigh the costs of RD&D investment.


Assess the technical potential for reducing electricity sector emissions
Assess the Technical Potential for Reducing Electricity Sector Emissions

  • Aggressive, successful RD&D

  • 2030 horizon

  • Compare to EIA 2007-2008

  • No economic, policy barriers to deployment

PRISM

  • Compare limited and full technology portfolios

  • Full portfolio approximates PRISM assumptions

  • 2050 horizon

  • Generic CO2 emissions reductions policies

  • Lowest-cost technology portfolio that meets policy

  • Inflation adjusted, constant 2000 $

Economic Analysis (MERGE)

Technology Pathways

  • 2030 horizon

  • Use existing technology roadmaps where possible

  • Focus on 4 major technology conclusions from PRISM

  • Timing and sequence of major RD&D activities

  • Preliminary estimate of RD&D funding needs


EPRI PRISM (2007) Sector EmissionsCO2 Reductions … Technical Potential*

* Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible.

EIA Base Case 2007


CO Sector Emissions2 Reductions … Technical Potential from Electricity Sector

Projected CO2 Emissions in 2030

(due to economic and population growth)

CO2 Emissions Today

Efficiency in Homes and Business

Wind Power

Nuclear Power

Advanced Coal

CO2 Capture & Storage

Solar and PHEVs

On a Path to De-carbonize the Electricity Sector


EPRI Prism – 2008 EIA with Energy Bill Sector Emissions

  • Higher fuel prices

  • Lower GDP, load growth rate

  • More renewables, nuclear

EIA Base Case 2008

EIA Base Case 2007

Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible


Generation mix
Generation Mix Sector Emissions

2007 U.S. Electricity Generation Mix

Non-Hydro Renewables, 2%

Conventional Hydropower, 7%

EPRI “Prism” Projected 2030 Generation Mix

Nuclear, 21%

Non-Hydro

Renewables, 9%

Conventional

Hydropower

5%

Coal

w/o CCS

39%

Natural Gas, 18%

Petroleum, 1%

Coal, 51%

EIA 2008 with Energy Bill – Projection for 2030

Coal, 58%

Non-Hydro Renewables, 5%

Conventional Hydropower, 6%

Nuclear

29%

Nuclear, 19%

Natural Gas

5%

Advanced Coal

w/CCS, 13%

Natural Gas, 11%

Petroleum, 1%


Key technology challenges
Key Technology Challenges Sector Emissions

  • Smart grids and communications infrastructures to enable end-use efficiency and demand response, distributed generation, and PHEVs.

  • A grid infrastructure with the capacity and reliability to operate with 20-30% intermittent renewables in specific regions.

  • Significant expansion of nuclear energy enabled by continued safe and economic operation of existing nuclear fleet; and a viable strategy for managing spent fuel.

  • Commercial-scale coal-based generation units operating with 90+% CO2 capture and storage in a variety of geologies.

Advanced Electricity Technologies needed to achieve “Prism” profile

Achieving “Prism” profile will require aggressive public and private sector RD&D programs and accelerated commercial deployment


Evaluate the economic impact of developing advanced technologies to reduce emissions
Evaluate the Economic Impact of Developing Advanced Technologies to Reduce Emissions

  • Aggressive, successful RD&D

  • 2030 horizon

  • Compare to EIA 2007

  • No economic, policy barriers to deployment

PRISM

  • Compare limited and full technology portfolios

  • Full portfolio approximates PRISM assumptions

  • 2050 horizon

  • Generic CO2 emissions reductions policies

  • Lowest-cost technology portfolio that meets policy

  • Inflation adjusted, constant 2000 $

Economic Analysis (MERGE)

Technology Pathways

  • 2030 horizon

  • Use existing technology roadmaps where possible

  • Focus on 4 major technology conclusions from PRISM

  • Timing and sequence of major RD&D activities

  • Preliminary estimate of RD&D funding needs


MERGE Model Overview Technologies to Reduce Emissions

  • A Model for Evaluating Regional and Global Effects of GHG reduction policies

  • Global intertemporal optimization model

  • Nine regions (USA, Western Europe, China, India, etc.)

  • Each country or group of countries maximizes its own welfare

  • Top-down model of economic growth and energy use

  • Process model of energy sector technology:

    • Electric Generation

    • Non-Electric Energy

  • Capable of representing a variety of greenhouse gas control scenarios

  • Captures economy-wide impact of carbon policy

One of three models used by US Climate Change Science Program and in many other international and domestic studies


Assumed u s economy wide co 2 constraint
Assumed U.S. Economy-Wide CO Technologies to Reduce Emissions2 Constraint

9

Starting Point is Current Intensity Target

8

7

2010 Cap to 2020

6

5

Billion Tons CO2 per year

4

3% decline

3

2

1

0

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

  • PRISM electric sector CO2 profile most closely modeled by economy-wide constraint which:

    • Caps emissions at 2010 levels until 2020

    • Requires 3% decline beginning in 2020


Electricity Technology Scenarios Technologies to Reduce Emissions


U.S. Electric Generation – Full Portfolio Technologies to Reduce Emissions

The vast majority of

electricity supply is CO2-free

Wind

Hydro

Gas and non-captured coal are the only supply options paying a CO2 cost

Nuclear

Gas

Public Policy (RPS) can modify this economic allocation

Coal with CCS

Coal


With a less de-carbonized supply, electricity load Technologies to Reduce Emissionsmust decline to meet the CO2 emissions target

Gas (with half the CO2 of coal) pays a significant CO2 cost

U.S. Electric Generation – Limited Portfolio

Biomass

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Coal


Co 2 emission cost economy wide
CO Technologies to Reduce Emissions2 Emission Cost – Economy Wide

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

With a de-carbonized electricity supply,

other parts of the economy pay a CO2 cost…

not the electricity sector

$/ton CO2*

Limited

Full

Year

*Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$


Co 2 emission cost economy wide1
CO Technologies to Reduce Emissions2 Emission Cost – Economy Wide

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

With a less de-carbonized supply,

the electricity sector pays a significant

CO2 cost…along with other sectors

$/ton CO2*

Limited

Full

Year

*Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$


Wholesale electricity price
Wholesale Electricity Price Technologies to Reduce Emissions

180

4.0

160

3.5

140

3.0

120

2.5

100

2.0

80

1.5

60

1.0

40

0.5

20

0

0.0

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

In the Full Portfolio the price of electricity has a low CO2 cost component and increases less

Limited

Index Relative to Year 2000

$/MWh*

Full

Year

*Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$


Increase in real electricity prices 2000 to 2050
Increase in Real Electricity Prices… Technologies to Reduce Emissions2000 to 2050

+260%

+45%

Both Scenarios meet the same economy-wide CO2 Cap*

*Economy-wide CO2 emissions capped at 2010 levels until 2020 and then reduced at 3%/yr



Full technology portfolio reduces costs of a co 2 emissions reduction policy by 60
Full Technology Portfolio Reduces Costs of a CO Natural Gas Consumption and Price2 Emissions Reduction Policy by 60%

0.0

Cost of

Policy

Full Portfolio

+ PHEV Only

Limited Portfolio

+ CCS Only

+ Nuclear Only

+ Renewables Only

+ Efficiency Only

-0.5

Change in GDP Discounted Through 2050

($Trillions)

Reduction in Policy Cost with

Advanced

Technology

$1 Trillion

-1.0

-1.5

Value of R&D Investment


Research development and demonstration is a good investment

$1,000B Natural Gas Consumption and Price

$30B

Research, Development and Demonstration is a good investment!!!

Avoided Cost to U.S. Economy

(2000-2050, present value in 2000 $)

RD&D Investment

(2005-2030, present value in 2000 $)


Summary of Key Messages From MERGE Natural Gas Consumption and Price

  • Very expensive without new technology

  • Much less expensive with new technology

  • Economic benefits much larger than cost of R&D

  • New technology accelerates electrification


What has to be done to develop and deploy the needed technologies
What Has to be Done to Develop and Deploy the Needed Technologies?

  • Aggressive, successful RD&D

  • 2030 horizon

  • Compare to EIA 2007

  • No economic, policy barriers to deployment

PRISM

  • Compare limited and full technology portfolios

  • Full portfolio approximates PRISM assumptions

  • 2050 horizon

  • Generic CO2 emissions reductions policies

  • Lowest-cost technology portfolio that meets policy

  • Inflation adjusted, constant 2000 $

Economic Analysis (MERGE)

Technology Pathways

  • 2030 horizon

  • Use existing technology roadmaps where possible

  • Focus on 4 major technology conclusions from PRISM

  • Timing and sequence of major RD&D activities

  • Preliminary estimate of RD&D funding needs


Transition to Low-Emissions Technologies Technologies?

  • Enabling Efficiency, PHEVs, DER via the Smart Distribution Grid

  • Enabling Intermittent Renewables via Advanced Transmission Grids

  • Expanded Advanced Light Water Reactor Deployment

  • Advanced Coal Plants with CO2 Capture and Storage


Analysis to action
Analysis to Action Technologies?


Building for the future enabling efficiency phevs der via the smart distribution grid
Building for the Future Technologies?Enabling Efficiency, PHEVs, DER via the Smart Distribution Grid

Intelligent devices and automatic energy management widespread.

Major penetration of PHEVs into new light vehicle market.

Deployment of Smart Distribution grids.

Smart Distribution System Demonstrations


Building for the future enabling intermittent renewables via advanced transmission grids
Building for the Future Technologies?Enabling Intermittent Renewables viaAdvanced Transmission Grids

Intermittent renewables could provide as much as 20-30% of generation in some areas.

Deployment ofadvanced transmission grid technologies.

Concentrated Solar Power Plant (CSP)

Advanced 350 MW CAES Demonstration


Building for the future expanded advanced light water reactor deployment
Building for the Future Technologies?Expanded Advanced Light Water Reactor Deployment

Existing nuclear plant licenses extended to 80 years.

First new nuclear plants deployed

ALWR deployment.

All existingnuclear plant licenses extended to 60 years.


Building for the future advanced coal plants with co 2 capture and storage
Building for the Future Technologies?Advanced Coal Plants withCO2 Capture and Storage

Potential CO2 capture retrofits?

All new coal plants capture 90% of CO2

PotentialCO2 capture forNatural Gas Combined Cycle plants?

Commercial availability of CO2 storage.

UltraGen I—Advanced Pulverized Coal Plant (with CO2 Capture)

CO2 Storage Demonstrations

CO2 Capture Demonstrations


The full portfolio lower co 2 lower prices
The Full Portfolio: Lower CO Technologies?2, Lower Prices

+260%

+45%

*Economy-wide CO2 emissions capped at 2010 levels until 2020 and then reduced at 3%/yr


The Bottom Line - It’s Not a Silver Bullet, It’s Silver Buckshot: Using Technology to Reduce Carbon Emissions

  • There is substantial potential for reducing U.S. electricity sector CO2 emissions.

  • Decarbonizing the electricity sector will be expensive, but availability of a full portfolio of low-cost, low-carbon technologies can substantially reduce costs to the nation’s economy.

  • No one technology will be a silver bullet – a portfolio of technologies will be needed.

  • A low carbon-emitting electric sector is critical to decarbonizing the rest of the U.S. economy at a manageable cost.

  • Much of the needed technology isn’t available yet – substantial R&D, demonstration is required.

  • The economic and environmental benefits of a full portfolio of low-emitting technologies far outweigh the costs of RD&D investment.


Image courtesy of Buckshot: Using Technology to Reduce Carbon EmissionsNASA Visible Earth


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