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Cellular and Wireless Technology Update

Cellular and Wireless Technology Update. AICC Meeting, Washington, DC. 2018-09-06. Syed Zaeem Hosain (“Z”), CTO and Founder, Aeris +1(408) 557-1905, @AerisCTO, Syed.Hosain@aeris.net. Agenda. Who is Aeris A few slides on our company Global Cellular and IoT Technology trends USA Cellular

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Cellular and Wireless Technology Update

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  1. Cellular and WirelessTechnology Update AICC Meeting, Washington, DC. 2018-09-06 Syed Zaeem Hosain (“Z”), CTO and Founder, Aeris +1(408) 557-1905, @AerisCTO, Syed.Hosain@aeris.net

  2. Agenda • Who is Aeris • A few slides on our company • Global Cellular and IoT • Technology trends • USA Cellular • Technology longevity • Global and USA LPWA and 5G • When and where • Questions

  3. Aeris Is … Presence HQ: Silicon Valley (San Jose) Ops: San Jose, Chicago, UK, India, Japan NOCs: San Jose, Las Vegas, London, & Delhi Numbers Global service in 180 countries 6th largest in Cellular IoT globally > 1.5 Billion messages per day Markets Connected Cars, Fleets, Health Care, Financial, Industrial IoT, Utilities Cloud-based Datacenter Call Center Aeris Datacenter Support Center

  4. Globally, Aeris Is 6th Largest Number of cellular IoT connections Source: Machina Research, 2017

  5. Aeris Overview From Device to Network to Application Additional Vertical Solutions Fleet Telematics Solutions Data In/Out DataTransport Storage andManagement DataTransformation Presentation and Action Connected Vehicle Solutions Monetization Sensors, Devices Connectivity Storage & management Analytics Application development Tools Rating & billing Security The broadest IoT platform in the industry – spanning network to application

  6. Global Cellular Technology Cellular connections (including M2M and IoT) Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, Jun 2017

  7. Global IoT Predictions – Machina Research • Numbers continue to be staggeringly large • 30 billion devices, 7 billion cellular and LPWA by 2025

  8. Global Mobile IoT Predictions – Cisco • 31% of Mobile M2M devices are LPWA in 2021 • Cellular and LPWA M2M Growth Source: Cisco VNI Mobile 2017

  9. Top 7 Carriers in USA – Q2 2018 • Rest are small • #5 and below, combined, are less than Aeris numbers Source: Fierce Wireless Report, Aug 2018

  10. Top US Carriers Current Technology ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 Dates beyond 2018 subject to change – dual arrows show likely range 2G GSMGPRS / EDGE 3G GSM HSPA / HSPA+ 4G LTE LTE / LTE Adv. 2G CDMA 1xRTT / 1x Adv. 3G CDMA EV-DO Rev. A/B

  11. USA and Canada • Technology longevity • USA • 2G GPRS removed in 2016 (AT&T) + end of this decade (T-Mobile) • 3G HSPA till end of 2020 (AT&T) + early next decade (T-Mobile) • 2G 1xRTT till end of 2019 to 2021 (Verizon) + early next decade (Sprint) • 3G EV-DO removed by end of this decade … perhaps early next decade • 4G LTE continues through end of next decade (through end of 2027 by AT&T) • Canada • Similar schedule as USA (sometimes moves faster) • 2G GPRS removed before end of this decade • 2G / 3G CDMA removed by end of this decade • 3G HSPA removed early next decade … perhaps sooner • 4G LTE deployed in cities and towns

  12. Mexico + LATAM • Tends to follow US and Canada strategy • Mexico • 2G GPRS removed by end of this decade … perhaps later • 3G HSPA removed early-to-mid next decade … perhaps sooner • 4G LTE still being deployed in many areas • LATAM follows North American trends • 2G GPRS through end of decade … possibly early next decade • 3G HSPA through mid next decade (but limited coverage) • 4G LTE still being deployed in many areas

  13. Europe • Was Late to LTE (compared to USA) • Fairly uniform across Northern EU • Mostly “single-nation” carriers – congestion not like USA • 2G GPRS available through middle of next decade • 3G HSPA (where available) through early next decade • 4G LTE available in all cities, towns and highways • Southern EU has slower expansion • Economic constraints slowing 4G LTE expansion • 2G GPRS available through middle of next decade • 3G HSPA (where available) through early next decade • 4G LTE deployments catching up to Northern EU

  14. APAC • Different from country to country • China • Committed to 2G / 3G CDMA / GSM through mid / end next decade • 4G LTE is not common outside cities • Japan, South Korea • Rapid deployment of next-gen technologies … always • CDMA / GSM replaced soon … by end of this decade • Australia • 2G GPRS already removed • 3G HSPA expansion slowed by 4G LTE deployments • India and Rest of APAC • 2G GPRS available through early-to-mid next decade … with exceptions (e.g., Singapore) • 3G HSPA (where available) through mid next decade • 4G LTE deployments now accelerating

  15. Two Categories Of LPWA technologies Proprietary LPWA (Sigfox, Ingenu, LoRa, etc.) • Unlicensed spectrum deployments • Public commercial, and private networks • Achieving full coverage is expensive • LoRa is seeing some success Standards LPWA (CAT-M, NB-IoT, EC-GSM, etc.) • Licensed spectrum deployments • Service networks from MNO’s • Costs subsidized by smartphone users • CAT-M and NB-IoT will be successful

  16. Comments • LPWAN technologies for some IoT apps • Sigfox and LoRa seeing some success outside USA • Sigfox in EU and other regional deployments; LoRa private networks growing • Sigfox and Ingenu [mostly] unsuccessful within USA • Capital / operation costs enormous for full USA coverage • LoRa starting to see national deployment in the USA • Senet deploying their own application; Comcast working on a national deployment • Carriers are deploying CAT-M, NB-IoT (and 5G) • Integrates well with their existing cellular infrastructure

  17. Global Status – CAT-M Launches As of April 2018 Orange • Belgium SingTel • Singapore Sprint • USA Telstra • Australia Turkcell • Turkey Verizon • USA AT&T • USA, Mexico Dialog Ataxia • Sri Lanka Etisalat • UAE KDDI • Japan KPN • The Netherlands

  18. Global Status – NB-IoT Launches As of April 2018 Dialog Ataxia • Sri Lanka Etisalat • UAE FarEasTone • Taiwan Korea Telecom • South Korea LGU+ • South Korea M1 Singapore • Singapore 3 • Hong Kong China Mobile • Hong Kong China Mobile • China China Telecom • China China Unicom • China Chunghwa Telecom • Taiwan

  19. Global Status – NB-IoT Launches As of April 2018 Telstra • Australia True Corporation • Thailand Turkcell • Turkey Velcom • Belarus SingTel • Singapore Vodafone • Spain, Australia, Netherlands, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Czech Republic, Turkey Mobitel • Sri Lanka Orange • Belgium TDC • Denmark T-Mobile • Austria, Germany, Greece, Poland, Slovakia, Netherlands, USA Telia • Finland, Norway Telecom Italia • Italy

  20. Top USA Carriers and Standards LPWA • LTE CAT-M available or in progress (exception: T-Mobile) • Verizon and AT&T state they full CAT-M coverage in all native markets • T-Mobile has not yet officially supported CAT-M • Sprint started deployment last summer … complete by end of 2018 • NB-IoT also available or in progress (exception: AT&T) • Verizon has stated they will support NB-IoT in 2019 • AT&T is testing NB-IoT … and will probably deploy in 2019 • T-Mobile states full NB-IoT in their footprint now • Sprint will deploy in their footprint in 2019 • Other Standards LPWA technologies • Will not make the cut, since … GSMA is only talking CAT-M and NB-IoT

  21. Coverage Note: By country … not RF coverage Source: GSM Alliance

  22. Challenges Driving 5G Why Is It Needed? Avalanche of Traffic Volume • Expansion of mobile broadband • Additional traffic from IoT • “1000x increase in ten years” Scale of Connected Devices • Number of IoT Devices growing dramatically • “30 Billion by 2025” – Machina Research Diversity in Use Cases & Requirements • Augmented and Virtual Reality apps • Connected & Autonomous Car communications • Small data from sensors

  23. 5G Use Case Projections Source: GSMA Intelligence

  24. 5G Spectrum Policy New spectrum discussions active • Takes time to finalize / test what may be usable for new technologies • Re-farming existing spectrum not as easy in the near future World Radio Congress (WRC-19) • WRC-15 set the objectives for planning for new spectrum • Selecting and harmonizing additional bands for 5G at WRC-19 is key for mobile industry 5G needs significant additional spectrum for performance • Spectrum above 6 GHz is a good possibility… more globally • Centimeter and Millimeter wave bands are under consideration Sub 1 GHz needed for in-building penetration • Low-power IoT devices (e.g., sensors) need reasonable penetration

  25. Global Spectrum Range of 5G Trials Source: GSMA Intelligence

  26. ITU Timeline for 5G Timeline / process in the works Source: ITU-R

  27. Key Accelerated Timelines Global 5G Efforts Source: GSMA Intelligence

  28. 5G Adoption in 2025 By Country/Region, excluding Cellular IoT Source: GSMA Intelligence

  29. 5G Customer Adoption Timeline in the USA Projected Connections – excluding Cellular IoT Source: GSMA Intelligence

  30. 5G and IoT Futures Set expectations correctly Some IoT applications Benefited by 5G • High data-rate, low-latency communications • Enabling high-performance for new applications Low-power, Low-data-rate Transports • Available today (LTE CAT-M, NB-IoT) • Long battery life is key to massive IoT growth 5G Will Take Time to Achieve Coverage • Fixed-location “last mile” use cases starting now • Use by many IoT apps is still years away

  31. Questions? +1 (408) 557-1905, @AerisCTO, Syed.Hosain@aeris.net USA: info@aeris.net+1 (408) 557-1993 EU: eu_info@aeris.net+44 118-315-0614 India: india_info@aeris.net+91 01206-156100

  32. 4G and 5G Projections Subscribers to 2040 Source: Intel

  33. 5G Service Requirements Bandwidth and Latency Requirements of Potential 5G Use Cases

  34. 5G Network Innovation Multi-Radio Access Technology Virtualized Heterogeneous Network Source: Intel

  35. Technical Requirement Objectives Few ms E2E 10 years 1000x data volume 50/500 B devices Up to 10Gbps 1000x higher mobile data volumes 10-100x higher number of connected devices 10-100x typical end-user data rates 5xlower latency 10xlonger battery lifefor low-power devices Source: GSMA Intelligence

  36. IMT-2020 Key Requirements Source: GSMA Intelligence

  37. 4G and 5G Deployment Options Stand-Alone (SA) and Non-Stand-Alone (NSA), with New Radio (NR) and 5G Core (5GC) Source: GSMA Intelligence

  38. Overview of Migration Steps Source: GSMA Intelligence

  39. Migration from EPS to NSA Option 3 Adding 5G New Radio (NR) to Existing 4G Networks Source: GSMA Intelligence

  40. Migration from NSA Option 3 to NSA Option 7 and 5 More Complex Case Source: GSMA Intelligence

  41. SK Telecom Migration Plan Farthest Ahead of All Carriers Source: GSMA Intelligence

  42. Key Differences Between 4G Core (EPC) and 5G Core (5GC) Source: GSMA Intelligence

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