economic impacts on transportation of the us canada border
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Economic Impacts on Transportation of the US/Canada Border. Transportation leadership you can trust. Workplan & Expected Study Outcomes. presented to Border Transportation Working Group presented by Michael Fischer Cambridge Systematics, Inc. April 22, 2008. Overview of Project.

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economic impacts on transportation of the us canada border

Economic Impacts on Transportation of the US/Canada Border

Transportation leadership you can trust.

Workplan & Expected Study Outcomes

presented toBorder Transportation Working Group

presented byMichael FischerCambridge Systematics, Inc.

April 22, 2008

overview of project
Overview of Project
  • Main objective of study is to assess the impact of delay at border crossings and resulting changes in user benefits and broad macroeconomic measures
  • Key issues:
    • Definition and measurement of delay
    • Trends of delay patterns at border crossings
    • Breakdown of impacts across different modes
      • Truck traffic
      • Passenger vehicles [if data available]
    • Outputs of analytical task are user dis-benefits by mode and macroeconomic impacts
progression of study tasks
Progression of Study Tasks

Task 1: Work Plan

  • Phase I: Methodology and Background Research
    • Collection of available/relevant data
    • Assessment of trends
    • Case study comparisons
    • How can impacts be measured and modeled using economic impact tool?
  • Phase II: User Dis-benefits and Macroeconomic Impacts
    • Employment
    • Income
    • GDP

Task 2: Overview of Trade Data

Task 3: Literature Review

Task 4: Development of Methodology

Task 5: User Dis-benefits & Macroeconomic Impacts (TREDIS)

task 1 detailed work plan
Task 1: Detailed Work Plan
  • Workplan defines the specific tasks and deliverables of Phase I
  • Deliverables are technical memoranda for each task and a final report that combines individual documents
  • Workplan outlines how individual tasks will feed into each other and allow for the quantifiation of economic impacts of border delay
task 2 overview of economic trade data
Task 2: Overview of Economic Trade Data
  • Aggregate Economic and trade data obtained from a variety of sources [Global Insight, Statistics Canada, BTS, US Census, etc]
    • Trade data by commodity & time series
    • Border Crossing Information
    • Data measured in dollars [trade] and vehicle movements [traffic] differentiated by surface mode
    • Passenger trip purpose unlikely to be available
  • Aggregate trade forecasts between US and Canada to be obtained from Global Insight
task 3 literature review
Task 3: Literature Review
  • Literature review captures previously completed studies on border delay and transportation costs
  • Emphases gathered from previous studies:
    • Selected methodologies
    • Available and collected data
    • Outputs from previous studies [performance measures]
    • Impacts of new border security measures on delay
    • Typical cost of delay based on previous studies
  • Task will guide the development of the methodology [Task 4] and calibration of economic model [Task 5]
data requirements
Data Requirements
  • Literature review allows for assessment of available data sources and how data was used in other studies
  • Methodology includes separate impacts for passenger and truck traffic
  • Source of any passenger traffic data is still uncertain whereas data exists on truck traffic
  • Development of Methodology will determine specific data requirements for economic model
    • Definition of “delay” at the border
    • Congested vs. free flow conditions
    • Changes in traffic performance measures [VMT, VHT]
data requirements cont
Data Requirements [cont.]
  • Truck data for different ports of entry will likely be obtained from ATRI
    • Data can be differentiated by time-of-day and distance from border
    • Data obtained for main border points of entry
  • ATRI/Qualcomm data on truck traffic
    • Captures approximately 10% of truck traffic in US
    • Average day measure of delay compared to uncongested conditions [peak vs. off-peak]
    • Reliability Index
  • Access to data as part of FHWA data sharing process
task 4 development of methodology
Task 4: Development of Methodology

Increased travel time as a result of delay

  • Scope of Methodology:
    • Population and Employment
    • Business and Industry
    • Tourism and Visitor Industry
  • Impacts differentiated
    • Passenger Impacts
    • Freight Impacts
  • Measurement of Impacts using TREDIS

Higher user dis-benefits, such as travel costs for passengers and businesses

Passengers alter trips & business experience lower productivity

Higher product prices and resource costs

Macroeconomic Impacts on GDP, Employment, Income

task 4 development of methodology cont
Task 4: Development of Methodology [cont.]
  • Definition of Study Area
    • Consideration of four different regions handling in excess of 70% of all truck traffic
      • Michigan/Ontario
      • New York/Ontario
      • Lacolle/Champlain
      • Pacific Highway
  • Each border crossing region is likely to have a different mix of passenger and freight traffic, and different mix of commodities
  • Different sensitivities to recurrant and non-recurrant delays
task 4 development of methodology cont1
Task 4: Development of Methodology [cont.]
  • Measurement of impacts based on microeconomic theory
  • Border delays affect households and businesses by increasing their respective direct and indirect travel costs and therefore cause shifts in supply/demand
  • Passenger trips may be altered which will affect consumption expeditures at travel destination
  • Passengers have different sensitivities depending on purpose of travel [commuting, leisure, vacation, business]
  • Impact on commuters as a result of delay affects the access to labor pool by employers
task 4 development of methodology cont2
Task 4: Development of Methodology [cont.]
  • Businesses experience impacts as a result of delay:
    • higher costs
    • lower productivity
    • Impact also felt on reliability due to just-in-time delivery schedules
  • Depending on relative cost and price elasticities, impacts increase wages and subsequently product prices
  • Changes in product and resource markets [labor & materials] impacts overall trade patterns
  • Exchange rate fluctuations provide additional complication
task 5 estimation of economic impacts phase 2 currently not included in wp
Task 5: Estimation of Economic ImpactsPhase 2 – currently not included in WP
  • Inputs to model are travel-related changes resulting from new [security] policy or changing in infrastructure
  • TREDIS is based on:
    • Travel Cost Response Module [VHT and VMT turned into user benefits]
    • Market Access Response Module [measures changes in accessibility and connectivity]
    • Economic Adjustment Module [estimated indirect and induced effects]
    • Benefit Cost Module [accounting of all benefits/costs and computation of B-C ratios]
  • Evaluation of different scenarios possible
what will we learn from this analysis
What will we learn from this analysis?
  • Determination of the economic impacts of delay on freight and passenger traffic
    • Estimation of wait time/delay
    • User dis-benefits
  • Impacts on different type of travellers
    • Freight [Impacts by industry]
    • Passenger [vacation, recreational, commuting, business]
  • Trends in border delays and future projections
decision points and next steps
Decision-points and next steps
  • Revision of detailed workplan
  • Development of specific schedule & timeframe for tasks deliverables
  • Adjusted cost estimate
  • Obtain feedback and direction from Transportation Border Working Group regarding:
    • Other sources of critical data for analysis
    • Direction & outputs of study