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Travel Costs . Lecture 16 October 27, 2004 12-706 / 73-359. Admin / Announcements. Early Course Evals Midsemester Grades Done (80% A/B - else C,D) Done to encourage you to keep working hard. Value - travel time savings. Many studies seek to estimate VTTS Can then be used easily in CBAs

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Travel Costs

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Travel Costs

Lecture 16

October 27, 2004

12-706 / 73-359


Admin / Announcements

  • Early Course Evals

  • Midsemester Grades Done (80% A/B - else C,D)

    • Done to encourage you to keep working hard


Value - travel time savings

  • Many studies seek to estimate VTTS

    • Can then be used easily in CBAs

  • Book reminds us of Waters 1993 (56 studies)

    • Many different methods used in studies

    • Route, speed, mode, location choices

    • Results as % of hourly wages not a $ amount

    • Mean value of 48% of wage rate (median 40)

    • North America: 59%/42%


Government Analyses

  • DOT (1997): Use % of wage rates for local/intercity and personal/business travel

    • Personal: 50% for local, 70% intercity

    • Business: 100% for all trips

    • These are the values we will use in class

  • Income levels are important themselves

    • VTTS not purely proportional to income

    • Waters suggests ‘square root’ relation

    • E.g. if income increases factor 4, VTTS by 2

Office of Secretary of Transportation, “Guidance for the Valuation of

Travel Time in Economic Analysis”, US DOT, April 1997.


Government Analyses

  • Typically 40-60% of hourly rate in CBAs

  • US (FHA) 60% - Canada 50%

  • Again, travel versus leisure important

    • Wide variation: 1:1 to 5:1!

  • Income levels are important themselves

    • VTTS not purely proportional to income

    • Waters suggests ‘square root’ relation

    • E.g. if income increases factor 4, VTTS by 2


Introduction - Congestion

  • Congestion (i.e. highway traffic) has impacts on movement of people & goods

    • Leads to increased travel time and fuel costs

    • Long commutes -> stress -> quality of life

    • Impacts freight costs (higher labor costs) and thus increases costs of goods & services

    • http://tti.tamu.edu/inside/hdv/programs/ama/mobility/study/report.stm (TTI report)


Literature Review

  • Texas Transportation Institute’s 1999 Annual Mobility Report

    • 15-year study to assess costs of congestion

    • Average daily traffic volumes

    • Binary congestion values

      • ‘Congested’ roads assumed both ways

    • Assumed 5% trucks all times/all roads

    • Assumed 1.25 persons/vehicle, $12/hour

    • Assumed roadway sizes for 3 classes of roads

    • Four different peak hour speeds (both ways)


Results

  • An admirable study at the national level

  • In 1997, congestion cost U.S. 4.3 billion hours of delay, 6.6 billion gallons of wasted fuel, thus $72 billion of total cost

  • New Jersey wanted to validate results with its own data


New Jersey Method

  • Used New Jersey Congestion Management System (NJCMS) - 21 counties total

    • Hourly data! Much more info. than TTI report

  • For 4,000 two-direction links

    • Freeways principal arteries, other arteries

  • Detailed data on truck volumes

  • Average vehicle occupancy data per county, per roadway type

  • Detailed data on individual road sizes, etc.


Level of Service

  • Description of traffic flow (A-F)

    • A is best, F is worst (A-C ‘ok’, D-F not)

  • Peak hour travel speeds calculated

    • Compared to ‘free flow’ speeds

    • A-C classes not considered as congested

    • D-F congestion estimated by free-peak speed

  • All attempts to make specific findings on New Jersey compared to national

  • http://www.njit.edu/Home/congestion/


Definitions

  • Roadway Congestion Index - cars per road space, measures vehicle density

    • Found per urban area (compared to avgs)

    • > 1.0 undesirable

  • Travel Rate Index

    • Amount of extra time needed on a road peak vs. off-peak (e.g. 1.20 = 20% more)


Definitions (cont.)

  • Travel Delay - time difference between actual time and ‘zero volume’ travel time

  • Congestion Cost - delay and fuel costs

    • Fuel assumed at $1.28 per gallon

    • VTTS - used wage by county (100%)

    • Also, truck delays $2.65/mile (same as TTI)

  • Congestion cost per licensed driver

    • Took results divided by licenses

    • Assumed 69.2% of all residents each county


Details

  • County wages $10.83-$23.20 per hour

  • Found RCI for each roadway link in NJ

    • Aggregated by class for each county


New York

City

RCI result:

Northern counties

generally higher

than southern

counties


TRI result:

Northern counties

generally higher

than southern

counties


Avg annual

Delay =

34 hours!

Almost a work

Week!


Effects

  • Could find annual hours of delay per driver by aggregating roadway delays

    • Then dividing by number of drivers

  • Total annual congestion cost $4.9 B

    • Over 5% of total of TTI study

    • 75% for autos (190 M hours, $0.5 B fuel cost)

    • 25% for trucks (inc. labor/operating cost)

    • Avg annual delay per driver = 34 hours


Future

  • Predicted to only get worse

    • Congestion costs will double by 2015


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