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Cognitive Psychology & Military Weather Forecasting. Earl Hunt Susan Joslyn. Larger context. Briefings vs. forecasting Communicating forecast to customer Time pressure/time sharing Weather analysis in conjunction with other duties Automate portions of briefing process. Time Pressure.

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Cognitive psychology military weather forecasting l.jpg

Cognitive Psychology & Military Weather Forecasting

Earl Hunt

Susan Joslyn


Larger context l.jpg
Larger context

  • Briefings vs. forecasting

  • Communicating forecast to customer

  • Time pressure/time sharing

    • Weather analysis in conjunction with other duties

    • Automate portions of briefing process


Time pressure l.jpg
Time Pressure

People: filter information

  • Salient or available (Sieber, 1974)

  • Negative (Svenson, Edland, & Slovic, 1990; Wright, 1974)

    Forecasters: "problem of the day" (Pilske et al, 1997) Pattern matching (Klein, & Calderwood, 1991) co-occurrences of atmospheric events


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Information overload

  • Facilitate encoding and integration of decision-relevant information

  • Forecasters mental model

    (Hoffman, 1991, Trafton et al., 2000, Pilske et al, 1997)

    Hypotheses

    Forecasting funnel

    Qualitative model from quantitative information

    Numerical models to check qualitative model

    Spatial, Temporal dimensions

    Cause & effect

    Model model


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Questions Step 1

1) What are the currently used sources of information? For what tasks are they used?

2) What are the components and structure of the mental model? How do information sources inform the model?

3) What are the procedures or steps for common forecasting tasks.


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Related work

Miyamoto & Jones (2001), Preliminary results from human systems

Miyamoto, (1999), Human Systems Study on use of meteorological and oceanographic data to support naval Air Strike

Trafton, Kirschenbaum, Tsui, Miyamoto, Ballas, Raymond (2000), Turning pictures into numbers: Extracting and generating information from complex visualizations


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Pilot Study

  • Expert Forecaster

  • Forecast: temperature, winds, cloud cover, precipitation and thunderstorm

    • 4 cities,

    • the next morning

  • 40 minutes

  • Tape recorded verbalized thoughts


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Process

  • Orderly, routine

  • Set forecast of parameter as goal

  • Evaluated evidence

  • Made decision

  • Moved on to next parameter

  • Classic expert foreword reasoning


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Analysis

  • Individual numbered statements

  • Coded

    • statement type

      • decision

      • pre-decision change in the mental model

      • post decision verification (confirmatory or disconfirm)

      • change decision

    • mental model

      • causal

      • temporal element

      • model

    • information source

      • station report,

      • satellite and radar imagery,

      • numerical model information,

      • prior knowledge ( general principles or local climate


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First Parameter Forecast

  • OKC: Temperature

    53% (17/32) of statements

  • Pittsburgh:Precipitation

    49% (22/45) of statements

  • Fargo :Precipitation

    42% (19/45) of statements


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Precipitation & Thunderstorms

29% (48/165) of statements

Qualitative 4-D mental model

Source # of statements

Satellite 3

Radar 8

Model: Eta 8

Model: Aviation 4

Model: MM5 2

Station Report 4

Station Report: Surrogate 4

Local weather knowledge 3

General weather knowledge 2

Climate chart 1

Previous forecast 1


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Cloud cover

12% (20/165) the statements

Qualitative from qualitative & quantitative

Source # of statements

Satellite 4

Model: Eta 2

Model: Aviation 1

Station Report 1

Local weather knowledge 2


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Temperature

31% (51/165) of statements

Source # of statements

Satellite 1

Model: ETA 12

Model: Aviation 3

Model: NGM 1

Model: MM5 5

Station Report 6

Station Report: Surrogate 5

Local weather knowledge 3

General weather knowledge 2



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Winds

20% (33/165) of the statements

Numerical models consulted early (reliable)

Sequential quantitative reasoning

Source # of statements

Model: Eta 6

Model: Aviation 5

Model: MM5 5

Station Report 6

Local weather knowledge 2

General weather knowledge 1


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Take Home Message

  • Forecasting process/mental model may vary with task

  • Compatible display format will facilitate encoding and synthesis & decrease information overload


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