Why Population Matters

1. Why Population Matters An introduction Population Matters 135-137 Station Road, London E4 6AG +44(0)20 8123 9116 www.populationmatters.org enquiries@populationmatters.org Patrons: Sir David Attenborough OM CH CVO CBE ● Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta ● Professor Paul Ehrlich ● Dr Jane Goodall DBE ● Professor John Guillebaud ● Susan Hampshire OBE ● Dr James Lovelock CBE ● Professor Aubrey Manning OBE ● Professor Norman Myers CMG ● Chris Packham ● Sara Parkin OBE ● Jonathon Pomitt CBE ● Lionel Shriver ● Sir Crispin Tickell GCMG KCVO Population Matters is the working name of the Optimum Population Trust. Regd. charity no. 1114109. Regd. company no. 3019081. Regd. office as above.

3. Summary • Current world consumption levels are already unsustainable • Per capita consumption and population are still rising rapidly and sustainable business practices are limited • We need to address all three factors to bring supply and demand for resources and biodiversity into long term balance

4. Introducing Population Matters • Founded in 1991 as the Optimum Population Trust and the only UK population concern group • Campaigns for stabilisation and gradual population decrease globally and in the UK to sustainable (optimum) levels • Conducts lobbying, media activity, on line and local campaigning • Patrons: David Attenborough, Partha Dasgupta, Professor Paul Ehrlich, Jane Goodall, Susan Hampshire, John Guillebaud, James Lovelock, Aubrey Manning, Norman Myers, Sara Parkin, Chris Packham, Jonathon Porritt, Lionel Shriver and Crispin Tickell • Funded from members and donations: you can join from £20 pa (£5 concessions) at www.optimumpopulation.org

5. Why does it matter? “No generation has a freehold on this earth. All we have is a life tenancy, with a full repairing lease.” - Margaret Thatcher

6. How well are we looking after our planet? “Populations of tropical species are plummeting and humanity’s demands on natural resources are sky-rocketing to 50 per cent more than the earth can sustain The 2010 (Living Planet) report finds that our demand on natural resources has doubled since 1966.” WWF 13th October 2010

7. How well are we looking after ourselves?

8. ..and then there’s climate change • Uncertain rainfall – droughts and desertification • Melting glaciers – loss of water for irrigation • Changing temperatures – loss of crops and wild life/ sea life • Rising sea levels - flooding

9. Population - historical

10. Population - religious For every one person alive at the time of Jesus Christ, there are 35 alive today

11. Population – 1960 to 2050

12. Resources are limited • Fresh water is finite and degradable • Fertile soil is finite and degradable • Energy at current prices is finite • The climate and the seas are degradable • Plant life and minerals are finite • Wildlife and sea life are finite and degradable • Quality of life is degradable • These resources are interdependent

13. Things aren’t great now Millennium Development Goals by 2015 • Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger • Achieve universal primary education • Promote gender equality and empower women • Reduce child mortality rate • Improve maternal health • Target 5B: Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health • Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases • Ensure environmental sustainability • Develop a global partnership for development

14. Development has two pros and cons Demographic transition Consequences of growth Economic development Economic development Pollution and loss of habitat Health Higher energy use Population stabilisation + - Longevity Reproductive health Higher resource use High input western diets Gender equality

15. For good… Contraception Conservation Renewable energy Desalination plants Efficient resource use New materials New technologies Or ill Logging Bottom trawling Sonar based fishing High input monoculture Mass air travel Patio heaters Technology has pros and cons, too

16. Growth happens till limits are reached • Sexual impulse is strong and instinctive • Sexual intercourse often leads to reproduction unless this is obstructed • Individuals will seek to: • procreate • prosper • prolong their lives • Population and consumption will grow unless constrained by artificial or natural means

17. UN Population Projections to 2050 (log scale) 3 billion is a big difference! It’s the size of the entire world population in 1960. 11 9 8

18. Growth by continent (log scale) World Asia Africa Latin America Europe North America

19. What drives consumption? Lifestyle/ living standards Government and business practices Number of people What can we do about it? Live a green lifestyle Encourage sustainable behaviours Fund access to family planning and have fewer children We must take responsibility for our actions and for the world we live in Is having many children irresponsible and unethical?

20. Our critics feel strongly about us… • “The barmy Malthusians at OPT” – David Aaronovitch • “(PopOffsets)…offers a way for elitist racists to feel ethical in their quest to exterminate the third world masses.”- climategateTV • “The odious OPT is a zombie-like Malthusian organisation devoted to the cause of human depletion.” – Frank Furedi • “…this red herring of population…” – Duncan Green, Oxfam • “Unequal distribution is the problem. The malthusianists/ proto-fascists in the OPT would have you believe otherwise...”- Andy Hewett, Green Party • “here is a message … to the population control freaks … mind your own reproducing business.”- Dominic Lawson • “…most of those who are obsessed with population growth are post-reproductive wealthy white men…” – George Monbiot • “(OPT) are talking dangerous nonsense… overconsumption, not overpopulation, is what really imperils the planet. …” - Fred Pearce • “There are ways of 'fighting' climate change that are going to lead to a lot ofoppression, you don't have to be a conspiracy crank to be worried” – Derek Wall, Green Party

21. People Family Women Children Fun Freedom God Third world Poor people Rich people Immigrants Native populations Population Matters are allegedly anti…

22. The “taboo” • Why do many people hate to talk about population? • Philosophical • Historical/ personal • Practical

23. Philosophical basis for taboo • Past predictions did not come to pass • Malthus in 1800s; Ehrlich in 1960s • Selective breeding is unacceptable • Eugenics; Hitler 11m dead; ethnic cleansing • Coercive family planning is unacceptable • India under Indira; Chinese one child policy • Individual/ third world/ women’s rights • We can’t tell people what to do

24. Historical/ personal basis for taboo • Religious tenets – Go forth and multiply • National security – Breed more soldiers • Family economy – Two hand, one mouth • Masculinity – A fertile man is a real man • Children provide - a sense of achievement/ ownership/ companionship/ future accomplishment • Instinct - to procreate and love one’s children

25. Practical basis for the taboo • People won’t respond to an appeal for restraint • Who’ll look after us all when we get old? • Too slow to affect climate change • It’s a distraction from the “real problem” e.g. permissiveness, capitalism, greed, carbon emissions, meat eating etc.

26. How do we respond to these taboos? • State the facts • Focus on now and the future, not the past • Talk about sustainability • Acknowledge role of other solutions • Talk about the practical steps needed

27. Easier - Should we? For developing countries Encourage economic development Encourage gender equality Fund reproductive healthcare For the UK Improve opportunities and education for young women Improve sex education Improve the quality of family planning advice Advertise contraception before the watershed Harder – Should we? Have balanced migration Pay universal child benefit for only the first two children Provide family planning services to teenagers without their parents’ knowledge Require pharmacists to stock the ‘morning after’ pill Allow abortion on request Pay people to delay childbearing be sterilised Impose fines and/ or loss of benefits for ‘too many’ children What approaches are ethical?

28. Easier - Should we? For developing countries Encourage economic development Encourage gender equality Fund reproductive healthcare For the UK Improve opportunities and education for young women Improve sex education Improve the quality of family planning advice Advertise contraception before the watershed Harder – Should we? Have balanced migration Pay automatic tax credit/ benefit for first two children Provide family planning services to teenagers without their parents’ knowledge Require pharmacists to stock the ‘morning after’ pill Allow abortion on request Pay adults to delay childbearing be sterilised Impose penalties for ‘too many’ children green=yes, amber=poss., red=no

29. Countries with lower birth rates have often achieved this without fiscal pressure No. of countries: Average total fertility rate 2005-2010 Source: UN

30. Our key goals • Universal access to reproductive health – 215m women can’t afford or have available modern contraception • Gender equality and social development worldwide to provide the conditions for smaller families • Reducing the incidence of undesired conceptions through better education and healthcare • Asking people to have one or two children rather than three or four for environmental/ sustainability reasons • We accept the important of sustainable lifestyles and business practices

31. Summary • Current world consumption levels are already unsustainable • Per capita consumption and population are still rising rapidly and sustainable business practices are limited • We need to address all three factors to bring supply and demand for resources and biodiversity into long term balance