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Application of CarboSOIL model to predict the effects of climate change on soil organic carbon stocks in agro- silvo -pastoral Mediterranean management systems. Miriam Muñoz -Rojas , Luca Doro, Luigi Ledda , and Rosa Francaviglia.

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Application of CarboSOIL model to predict the effects of climate change on soil organic carbon stocks in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems

Miriam Muñoz-Rojas , Luca Doro, Luigi Ledda, and Rosa Francaviglia


CarboSOIL: a land evaluation tool for soil C assessment

CarboSOIL, a new component of the Agroecological Decision Support System MicroLEIS


CarboSOIL: a land evaluation tool for soil C assessment

Climate regulation

Soil structure

Soil fertility

Water holding capacity

Infiltration capacity

Water use efficiency

Soil biological health


CarboSOIL: a land evaluation tool for soil C assessment

Climate

Winter Temperature

Summer temperature

Annual Rainfall

Soil

N, pH, CEC

Texture

Bulk density

Water Holding Capacity

CarboSOIL

Site

Elevation

Slope

Land use

15 land use types


CarboSOIL: a land evaluation tool for soil C assessment

LAND USE

CLIMATE

SITE

SOIL

INPUT FACTORS

TJJA

PPT

ELEV

SLOP

SERO

DRAI

FCAP

SAND

CLAY

PHWA

CEXC

NITRO

BULK

LULC

CarboSOIL model diagram

TDJF

Mineralisation

Incorporation of residues

Aereation

Nutrientavailability

Biologicalactivity

SOIL PROCESSES

OUTPUTS

SOIL ORGANIC CARBON

0-25, 25-50, 50-75 cm

Respiration

Accumulation / loss

Source: Muñoz-Rojas, 2012


CarboSOIL: a land evaluation tool for soil C assessment

CarboSOILstructure

y = a+ b1x1+b2x2+b3x3+ ---+bnxn

y= SOC ; a= Intercept; b= variables; x= coefficients


Study area assessment

North-eastern Sardinia (Italy) 40°46’N, 9°10’E

  • Mean altitude -285 m

  • Climate- warm temperate with dry and hot summer.

    • Mean annual rainfall of 623 mm (range 367–811)

    • Mean annual temperature 15.0°C (13.8–16.4)

  • Soil type - HaplicEndolepticCambisols, Dystric (WRB)

  • Potential native vegetation - Cork oak forest (Quercussuber L.), converted to managed land with pastures and vineyards in recent years


Study area assessment

Land use transformation

  • Six land uses with different levels of cropping intensification were compared:

  • Tilled vineyards (TV)

  • No-tilled grassed vineyards (GV)

  • Hay crop (HC): oats, Italian ryegrass and annual clovers or vetch for 5 years and intercropped by spontaneous herbaceous vegetation in the 6th year

  • Pasture (PA): 5 years of spontaneous herbaceous vegetation, and 1 year of intercropping with oats, Italian ryegrass and annual clovers or vetch cultivated as a hay crop

  • Cork oak forest (CO)

  • Semi-natural systems (SN): natural re-vegetation of former vineyards (scrublands, Mediterranean maquis and Helichrysum meadows)


Study area assessment

Land use transformation

From left to right clockwise: no-tilled grassed vineyard (GV), grazed hay crop under oats land cover (HC), semi-natural systems with scrubs and Mediterranean maquis (SN), grazed pasture with spontaneous vegetation (PA).


CarboSOIL assessment application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems


CarboSOIL assessment application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems

Input data: variables description and sources


CarboSOIL assessment application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems

Input data: climate change scenarios


CarboSOIL assessment application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems

Assessment of the model performance and comparison between measured and simulated values

where Oi and Si are observed and simulated SOC at ith value, Ō is the mean of the observed data and n is the number of the paired values. The lowest possible value of RMSE is zero, indicating that there is no difference between simulated and observed data.

EF compares simulations and observations on an average level, and can range from - to 1, with the best performance at EF=1.


CarboSOIL assessment application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems

0-25 cm measured SD=14.12

25-50 cm measured SD=19.53

Regression coefficients are significant at p<0.001 and R2 are high, the standard deviation of the measured values is higher than RMSE, and EF is very close to the optimum value.

50-75 cm measured SD=11.09


CarboSOIL assessment application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems

CarboSOIL model predicted an overall increase of SOC stocks in the 2020 climate scenarios in all the soil sections, with the higher increases in the 50-75 cm section, and the smaller in the 25-50 cm soil section.


CarboSOIL assessment application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems

A SOC decreaseis instead expected in the 2050 and 2080 scenarios in the 25-50 cm soil section, more marked in the vineyards in comparison with the other land uses.


CarboSOIL assessment application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems

Oppositely, SOC increases are still expected in the 0-25 cm section and to a more extent in the 50-75 cm section, particularly evident in the vineyards.


Conclusions assessment

  • The model CarboSOIL has proved its ability to predict SOC stocks at different soil depths under different climate change scenarios.

  • Climate change will have a negative impact on SOC stocks in the soil section 25-50 cm, in particular in a long term (2050 and 2080).

  • Important decreases of SOC stocks were found in vineyards.

  • The methodology developed in this research might be easily applied to other Mediterranean areas with available data on climate, site, soil and land use.


Thank you! assessment

Miriam Muñoz-Rojas , Luca Doro, Luigi Ledda, and Rosa Francaviglia


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