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MERGE – Presentation to EMF 21

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MERGE – Presentation to EMF 21. Alan S. Manne, Stanford University Richard G. Richels, EPRI. Stanford University December 2003. Features of MERGE . Intertemporal computable general equilibrium model Perfect foresight 9 regions Time periods: decades from 2000 through 2150

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MERGE – Presentation toEMF 21

Alan S. Manne, Stanford University

Richard G. Richels, EPRI

Stanford University

December 2003

features of merge
Features of MERGE

Intertemporal computable general equilibrium model

Perfect foresight

9 regions

Time periods: decades from 2000 through 2150

Bottom-up model of energy supplies; top-down model of electric and nonelectric energy demands

Tradeables: oil, gas, carbon emission rights

Technical progress: both learn-by-doing and exogenous

Three greenhouse gases: co2, ch4 and n2o

Tradeoffs between gases based on “efficiency” prices rather than gwp

Website: www.stanford.edu/group/MERGE

features added specifically for emf 21
Features Added Specifically for EMF 21

Second basket of gases: short- and long-lived f-gases (slf, llf)

Baseline emissions of four non-co2 gases from EPA through 2020

Extrapolated emissions growth: linear at rates projected between 2000 and 2020

Marginal abatement cost curves of four non-co2 gases from EPA

Extrapolated technical progress

Carbon sinks – afforestation - cumulative quantities as well as annual growth and decline limits

Reported the five long-term scenarios requested by EMF; mostly global rather than regional results

marginal costs of abatement technical progress multipliers for all gases but co2
Marginal Costs of Abatement – Technical Progress Multipliers for all Gases but CO2

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2010

2050

2100

control cases
Control Cases
  • In reference case, temperature increases by 3.2 degrees C between 2000 and 2100.
  • Alternatively, limit the radiative forcing increase to 4.5 watts/square meter. Between 2000 and 2100, this leads to a temperature increase of about 2.5 degrees C.
  • Limit temperature increase to 0.2 degrees C per decade from 2020 onward. This leads to an extremely high value for carbon emission rights during the early decades.
  • Compare two abatement cases: energy-related CO2 only vs. all greenhouse gases plus afforestation.
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