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Alan S. Manne, Stanford University

Richard G. Richels, EPRI

Stanford University

December 2003

Features of MERGE

Intertemporal computable general equilibrium model

Perfect foresight

9 regions

Time periods: decades from 2000 through 2150

Bottom-up model of energy supplies; top-down model of electric and nonelectric energy demands

Tradeables: oil, gas, carbon emission rights

Technical progress: both learn-by-doing and exogenous

Three greenhouse gases: co2, ch4 and n2o

Tradeoffs between gases based on “efficiency” prices rather than gwp

Website: www.stanford.edu/group/MERGE

Features Added Specifically for EMF 21

Second basket of gases: short- and long-lived f-gases (slf, llf)

Baseline emissions of four non-co2 gases from EPA through 2020

Extrapolated emissions growth: linear at rates projected between 2000 and 2020

Marginal abatement cost curves of four non-co2 gases from EPA

Extrapolated technical progress

Carbon sinks – afforestation - cumulative quantities as well as annual growth and decline limits

Reported the five long-term scenarios requested by EMF; mostly global rather than regional results

Control Cases

- In reference case, temperature increases by 3.2 degrees C between 2000 and 2100.
- Alternatively, limit the radiative forcing increase to 4.5 watts/square meter. Between 2000 and 2100, this leads to a temperature increase of about 2.5 degrees C.
- Limit temperature increase to 0.2 degrees C per decade from 2020 onward. This leads to an extremely high value for carbon emission rights during the early decades.
- Compare two abatement cases: energy-related CO2 only vs. all greenhouse gases plus afforestation.

Ratio of Efficiency Prices to GWP’s ( 4.5 watts/square meter – multigas )

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