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MERGE – Presentation to EMF 21PowerPoint Presentation

MERGE – Presentation to EMF 21

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MERGE – Presentation toEMF 21

Alan S. Manne, Stanford University

Richard G. Richels, EPRI

Stanford University

December 2003

Features of MERGE

Intertemporal computable general equilibrium model

Perfect foresight

9 regions

Time periods: decades from 2000 through 2150

Bottom-up model of energy supplies; top-down model of electric and nonelectric energy demands

Tradeables: oil, gas, carbon emission rights

Technical progress: both learn-by-doing and exogenous

Three greenhouse gases: co2, ch4 and n2o

Tradeoffs between gases based on “efficiency” prices rather than gwp

Website: www.stanford.edu/group/MERGE

Features Added Specifically for EMF 21

Second basket of gases: short- and long-lived f-gases (slf, llf)

Baseline emissions of four non-co2 gases from EPA through 2020

Extrapolated emissions growth: linear at rates projected between 2000 and 2020

Marginal abatement cost curves of four non-co2 gases from EPA

Extrapolated technical progress

Carbon sinks – afforestation - cumulative quantities as well as annual growth and decline limits

Reported the five long-term scenarios requested by EMF; mostly global rather than regional results

Marginal Costs of Abatement – Technical Progress Multipliers for all Gases but CO2

$/tce

2010

2050

2100

World Carbon Sinks: Cumulative Difference Multipliers for all Gases but [email protected] $100/ton

Regional Multipliers for all Gases but CO2Population Projections

Per Capita GDP Multipliers for all Gases but CO2

GDP Projections Multipliers for all Gases but CO2

Carbon Emissions – Reference Case Multipliers for all Gases but CO2

Global Radiative Forcing Percentages Multipliers for all Gases but CO22000-2100 - reference case

slf

2%

llf

~0%

n2o

15%

ch4

8%

co2

75%

Control Cases Multipliers for all Gases but CO2

- In reference case, temperature increases by 3.2 degrees C between 2000 and 2100.
- Alternatively, limit the radiative forcing increase to 4.5 watts/square meter. Between 2000 and 2100, this leads to a temperature increase of about 2.5 degrees C.
- Limit temperature increase to 0.2 degrees C per decade from 2020 onward. This leads to an extremely high value for carbon emission rights during the early decades.
- Compare two abatement cases: energy-related CO2 only vs. all greenhouse gases plus afforestation.

Temperature Increase from 2000 Multipliers for all Gases but CO2

Present value of control costs Multipliers for all Gases but CO2

Efficiency price of carbon - 4.5 watts / square meter Multipliers for all Gases but CO2

Efficiency price of carbon – 0.2 degrees C per decade Multipliers for all Gases but CO2

Ratio of Efficiency Prices to GWP’s Multipliers for all Gases but CO2 ( 4.5 watts/square meter – multigas )

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