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MERGE – Presentation to EMF 21. Alan S. Manne, Stanford University Richard G. Richels, EPRI. Stanford University December 2003. Features of MERGE . Intertemporal computable general equilibrium model Perfect foresight 9 regions Time periods: decades from 2000 through 2150

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MERGE – Presentation toEMF 21

Alan S. Manne, Stanford University

Richard G. Richels, EPRI

Stanford University

December 2003


Features of merge
Features of MERGE

Intertemporal computable general equilibrium model

Perfect foresight

9 regions

Time periods: decades from 2000 through 2150

Bottom-up model of energy supplies; top-down model of electric and nonelectric energy demands

Tradeables: oil, gas, carbon emission rights

Technical progress: both learn-by-doing and exogenous

Three greenhouse gases: co2, ch4 and n2o

Tradeoffs between gases based on “efficiency” prices rather than gwp

Website: www.stanford.edu/group/MERGE


Features added specifically for emf 21
Features Added Specifically for EMF 21

Second basket of gases: short- and long-lived f-gases (slf, llf)

Baseline emissions of four non-co2 gases from EPA through 2020

Extrapolated emissions growth: linear at rates projected between 2000 and 2020

Marginal abatement cost curves of four non-co2 gases from EPA

Extrapolated technical progress

Carbon sinks – afforestation - cumulative quantities as well as annual growth and decline limits

Reported the five long-term scenarios requested by EMF; mostly global rather than regional results


Marginal costs of abatement technical progress multipliers for all gases but co2
Marginal Costs of Abatement – Technical Progress Multipliers for all Gases but CO2

$/tce

2010

2050

2100


World carbon sinks cumulative difference @ 100 ton
World Carbon Sinks: Cumulative Difference Multipliers for all Gases but [email protected] $100/ton


Regional population projections
Regional Multipliers for all Gases but CO2Population Projections


Per capita gdp
Per Capita GDP Multipliers for all Gases but CO2


Gdp projections
GDP Projections Multipliers for all Gases but CO2


Carbon emissions reference case
Carbon Emissions – Reference Case Multipliers for all Gases but CO2


Global radiative forcing percentages 2000 2100 reference case
Global Radiative Forcing Percentages Multipliers for all Gases but CO22000-2100 - reference case

slf

2%

llf

~0%

n2o

15%

ch4

8%

co2

75%


Control cases
Control Cases Multipliers for all Gases but CO2

  • In reference case, temperature increases by 3.2 degrees C between 2000 and 2100.

  • Alternatively, limit the radiative forcing increase to 4.5 watts/square meter. Between 2000 and 2100, this leads to a temperature increase of about 2.5 degrees C.

  • Limit temperature increase to 0.2 degrees C per decade from 2020 onward. This leads to an extremely high value for carbon emission rights during the early decades.

  • Compare two abatement cases: energy-related CO2 only vs. all greenhouse gases plus afforestation.


Temperature increase from 2000
Temperature Increase from 2000 Multipliers for all Gases but CO2


Present value of control costs
Present value of control costs Multipliers for all Gases but CO2




Ratio of efficiency prices to gwp s 4 5 watts square meter multigas
Ratio of Efficiency Prices to GWP’s Multipliers for all Gases but CO2 ( 4.5 watts/square meter – multigas )


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