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Greetings from Caritas Bangladesh Climate Change Situation and Impact in South-Asia Anwara Begum, PhD Director, Fisheries Program Caritas Bangladesh and Board Member, CANSA General views of South Asia Asia Largest and most populous continent

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Greetings from

Caritas Bangladesh


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Climate Change Situation and Impact in South-Asia

Anwara Begum, PhD

Director, Fisheries Program

Caritas Bangladesh

and

Board Member, CANSA


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General views of South Asia

Asia

Largest and most populous continent

46 countries, covering 30% of world’s land and 60% of population

South Asia

8 countries, population 1.6 billion and likely to exceed 2.26 billion by 2050

70% people live in rural area, 75% poor, depend on Agriculture/NR disproportionately affected by Climate Change

Monsoon is the most significant event in South Asian economic calendar


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Cont..

3/5 of cultivable land is rain fed, hence timely arrival of rain is crucial

The Himalayas are the home to the regional glaciers - melting creates flood risk; long run could create water shortage, this risk cut across borders. (Glaciers retract in Nepal can flood Bangladesh)

Increase in temperature will accelerate snow melting which coinciding with the summer monsoon, contribute to flood disasters in Himalayan catchments.


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Climate Change Context of South Asian

Highly vulnerable to climate change among the sub regions of Asia

Key biophysical vulnerabilities to climate change, vulnerability and extreme events in South Asia vary widely across the region due to differences in physical, social and economic circumstances

Climate disorder affects every sector of society includes - agriculture, water, health, coastal zone, biodiversity, ecosystem, socio-economic development.


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Cont....

Exploitation of natural resources associated with rapid urbanization, industrialization, economic development led to air- water pollution, land degradation and other environmental problems

Geographic location with high poverty, population density has rendered South Asia vulnerable to the impact of climate change.


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Climate change impact on one sector may have impact on other segment of economy.

Example:

Agriculture

Industry

Biodiversity

Coastal zone management

Parts of South Asia - becoming drier due to more heat and evaporation, uneven precipitation, weather pattern change.

Cont....

Water


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Ocean warming increasing cyclone, tornado. water surge segment of economy.

SLR due to melting – impacting live and livelihood of millions of poor people

Example:

Aila - 25th May, 2009

- washed away Coastal embankments

- 271 died, 40,000 people lost home/assets, now living on broken embankments at high risk

Cont....


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Agriculture segment of economy.

In South Asia

Agriculture is the primary occupation, employing 60% of the labour force.

Per capita growth in agricultural productivity is less than 2%, kept pace with population growth, lower than East Asia, pacific and Latin America.

By 2050, crop production will be reduced by 30%, food security will be under threat.

Temperature already approaching the limits of crop tolerance. Any further increase would lead to decline in productivity. Rain fed Agriculture is especially vulnerable to climate.


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Long-term change in temperature and rainfall have direct implication on agricultural yields.

Rain – onset, duration magnitude.

Extreme weather events like floods, drought, cyclone directly damage crops.

In Bangladesh between 1991 and 2000, 93 disaster recorded, huge lose of agro-production.

Scarcity of surface water, decreasing ground water level will affect agriculture, fisheries, and other livelihood options.

Cont....


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Temperature increase - soil loss - moisture, fertility, microbial function.

SLR/Salinity intrusion-crop failure, less production, loss of fertile costal lands

Unpredictable farming condition - Farmers traditional crop calendar will have disruption.

Increase incidence of pest and vector borne diseases.

Cont....


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Impact on Agriculture is location specific- within the region/ country/ parts of the country

Short duration, heavy rain - hill slide, stone slide - sudden crop damage.

One degree rise in temperature will decrease 10% yield of rice.

Higher temperature during flowering of rice will reduce grain number, size and quality.

Substantial loss will be occurred in rain-fed wheat.

Cont....


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2.5 region/ country/ parts of the country0C or more increase will drop in yield in non irrigated wheat and rice.

By 2100 net production of SA is projected to decrease 4-10% (under most conservative scenario)

Impact of climate change on Asian marine Fisheries occurs - will be disturbed as it depends on water chemistry and food chain.

Inland Fisheries will be adversely affected by lower availability of oxygen in high temperature, timing, amount of precipitation affects spawning, growth rate, growing period.

Cont....


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Health region/ country/ parts of the country

Climate change will bring new challenges for maintaining health as many major diseases are climate sensitive

Vector for disease like malaria, diarrhea, cholera, dengue are highly climate sensitive, could become more pervasive with rising temperature.

Decline yield, food availability could lead to malnutrition, push to other diseases, South Asia- ½ of the children - aged 0- 5 years are malnourished.

A warmer climate will increase air pollution, increase respiratory and air borne diseases.

Flood, water surge, cyclone - will cause transmission of diseases through unclear / stagnant water.


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With increased rainfall, areas with inadequate sanitation, diarrhea disease, cholera, dysentery, typhoid occurrence will increase: Example: - Flooding west Bengal in 2007, 276 death from cholera

Air pollution and rising ozone level exacerbate chronic illness such as cardiovascular disease and asthma

Temperature extremes - heat stroke cardiovascular, respiratory disease, heat wave affect poor and out door laborers

Rising temperature - spreading of disease and pest, a threat for agriculture.

Cont....


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Water diarrhea disease, cholera, dysentery, typhoid occurrence will increase: Example: - Flooding west Bengal in 2007, 276 death from cholera

Climate change will have effect on water

- Surface

- Underground

Sea/Ocean

Will affect drinking, irrigation and hydro -power production.

More floods will degrade drinking water, damage crops, livestock.

Sea level rise will affect ground water aquifers.

Higher altitude area :Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan temperature will rise 1.50C - 2.50C by 2050, less rain.


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By 2050 Annual run off in the Brahmaputra is projected to decline by 14% and Indus by 27%.

Heavy monsoon rain will bring in flash flood in South Asia

Hill slide, stone slide, problems in water shade management

Himalayan ice melting will cause more floods, after 2/3 decades water scarcity will occur in the linked rivers-Ganga, Brahmaputra and Jamuna.

Floods are likely to intensify causing major problem in Bangadesh, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh of India.

SLR will degrade coastal aquifers, create drinking/irrigation problem.

Cont....


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Ecosystem and Biodiversity decline by 14% and Indus by 27%.

Climate change impacts on productivity and resilience of ecosystems, critical for life, sustaining environmental scenario, i.e., water shed protection, soil fertility and carbon sequestration.

Plant and animal will be at risk of extinction example: wetland, forest.

20-30% of species will be at risk of extinction if warming continues at its current rate.

Mangrove forest will decline. Consequence will make the region susceptible to storm, waves river erosion, loss of biodiversity.


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Climate change will accelerate damage to fresh water ecosystem such as lakes, marshes and rivers.

Ocean chemistry is changing more than 100 times rapidly than it was during last 2100 years. Since industrial revolution, Oceans became 30% more acidic will cause coral bleaching, sea fish birds will be under threat.

Climate change will affect on the future distribution, productivity and health of forest throughout SA, ultimately will reduce ecosystem quality.

Cont....


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Sea level rise ecosystem such as lakes, marshes and rivers.

Maldives-96% islands occupy less than 1 km of land 80% of the country lies below 1m of sea level, could create existential threat.

60 million of people of SA will be at risk of coastal flood.

Seal level rise threatens the existence of many small island and development prospects of coastal communities. IPCC projection for 2100 range from 9 to 88 cm.

A Tourist Centre of Maldives


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Sea level rise ecosystem such as lakes, marshes and rivers.

SLR is a concern for coastal urban areas (Khulna, Karachi, Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai, Cochin).

Fertile delta system threatened by inundation, salinity intrusions: Example - Bangladesh.

Salt water intrusion in low lying agricultural plains and water resources could lead to localized food insecurity, spread of water related diseases and contamination of fresh water resources.


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Parts of east coast (Bangladesh and Orissa) vulnerable to storm and surges.

Low lying islands (the Maldives, Coastal area of Srilanka and chars and islands in Bangladesh) stand most to loose by SLR.

Pakistan/India current rise 1mm/year. Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable, estimates 0.3 to 1.5 meters by 2050.

Cont....


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Bangladesh has direct inundation impact storm and surges.

Rising sea levels in particular, pose a growing threat to the communities in low-lying coastal areas of SA countries

Some countries could loose large area of land for both habitat and food production

SLR could force millions of people to relocate/migrate

BY 2100 about 30 million people of Bangladesh will be climate migrant

Cont....


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Thanks storm and surges.


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