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Tsunami Hazards on the East and Gulf Coasts

Tsunami Hazards on the East and Gulf Coasts. Dr. Annie Kammerer, P.E. NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research RIC 2009. Overview. Research Goals Overview of program Available products. Research Goals. Better understanding for all US coasts Development of a source database

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Tsunami Hazards on the East and Gulf Coasts

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  1. Tsunami Hazards on the East and Gulf Coasts Dr. Annie Kammerer, P.E. NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research RIC 2009

  2. Overview • Research Goals • Overview of program • Available products

  3. Research Goals • Better understanding for all US coasts • Development of a source database • Integration of landslide modeling • Input for probable maximum tsunami (PMT) hazard levels • PTHA (probabilistic) where appropriate • Incorporation into regulatory guidance

  4. NRC RESEARCH Pacific Coast East Coast Hawaii Gulf Coast

  5. Damage comes from… • Wave inundation • Drawdown (important for plants) • Floating debris • Scour

  6. 1 Distant Earthquakes 10 100 Local Earthquakes Recurrence Interval (yr) (annual probability of exceedence)-1 1000 Volcanoes Landslides 10000 Asteroid Impact 1 10 100 1000 Size of Tsunami (m) Idealization of size-frequency relationship of tsunami sources Power et al., 2005

  7. Sources Addressed • Near-field seismic • Far-field seismic • Near-field landslide • Far-field landslide • NOT: • Asteroid Impacts • Volcanic

  8. Research Plan • Data collection, review of current state of knowledge, interpretation of data, basic modeling (completed - first USGS report) • Targeted field work, additional analyses, additional modeling (second USGS report) • Updating NOAA models for landslide sources, global modeling • Hazard map development • PTHA

  9. Data collection, review of current state of knowledge, interpretation of data, basic modeling (2008) ML082960196 (IJMG special publication)

  10. Near Field Landslides

  11. Currituck Landslide

  12. Currituck Landslide -40 -20 0 20 40 Meters 0 100 200 300 KM

  13. Existing Data

  14. Far-Field Landslide Sources EUS • Cumbre Vieja, Canary Islands • Glaciated margins of northern Europe and Canada • Storegga landslide, Norway • Eastern Scotian margin (0.15 MYA) • 1929 Grand Banks landslide • The mid-Atlantic ridge

  15. Canary and Hawaiian Islands

  16. Lituya Bay 1,700 feet

  17. Far-Field Seismic Sources • West of Gibraltar • 1755 Lisbon • 1761 Earthquake and Tsunami • The Northeast Caribbean • Puerto Rico Trench • Hispaniola Trench • Northern Panama

  18. Far-Field Seismic Sources Caribbean Plate

  19. Modeling Sources

  20. Southern Caribbean Subduction Zone

  21. Global Modeling & Mapping • NOAA to use UGSG source information to add landslide capability that works with global (MOST) model • NOAA modeling addresses “linear” part of analyses • Site-specific inundation modeling performed separately

  22. Advanced Methods • PTHA = Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments • Focus of significant US research efforts • Techniques analogous to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), which are the basis of US NRC seismic hazard guidance

  23. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard

  24. Questions

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