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French deep - sea hinterlands: Some empirical evidence of the spatial impact of containerisation. David Guerrero IAME, Taipei, September 6th, 2012. Aim of the paper.

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slide1

French deep-sea hinterlands:

Someempiricalevidence of the

spatial impact of containerisation

David Guerrero

IAME, Taipei, September 6th, 2012

aim of the paper
Aim of the paper
  • Understand the evolution of hinterlands in France, a middle-sized country locatedbetween the two main European port ranges: Northern Range and Mediterranean.
  • Build a typology of cargo depending on the size and degree of overlapping of hinterlands
  • Examine the linkbetween hinterland and forelandfor French global ports (Le Havre and Marseilles)
we shouldn t separate hinterland and foreland
Weshouldn’tseparate hinterland and foreland …

“The separation of foreland and hinterland relationships of a port into two neatly labeled packages in previous conceptualization represents a false dichotomy. The flow of commodities from foreland to hinterland, albeit across segments of maritime and landward space and through two ports might be better viewed as a continuum”

Ross Robinson, 1970

… but wedid

geographical framework1
Geographical Framework

French counties

Ports handling French Trade

operational framework
Operational Framework
  • Port authoritiesprovidetheirdemandforecasts, mostlybasedexclusively on port traffic and GDP.
  • Planners and policy-makers stress on the need of a betterunderstanding of territorial issues:
  • Whichregionsgenerate cargo flows?
  • Which ports handle the traffic of regions?
  • Whichregionsshould support port development?

In order to make more accurateforecast…

…justifyinginvestment in port and inland transport infrastructure

slide8
Data

French Foreign Trade Data (non-EU countries)

Hinterland

Foreland

94 counties (French inlandregions)

165 countries (overseas)

10 cargo types

10 cargo types

20 ports*

20 ports*

tons

Imports

Exports

methods
Methods
  • Cluster analysis techniques, in order to make:
    • Typology of ports depending on their hinterlands
    • Typology of regionsdepending on the ports thathandletheir maritime flows
  • Spatial interaction modellingof flowsbetween ports and regions, in order to measure:
    • The effect of distance and size for different types of cargo
    • The degree of overlapping of hinterlands
modelling the spatial distribution of flows
Modelling the spatial distribution of flows

A way to analyse the characteristics of hinterlands for different types of cargo, depending on:

  • Friction (distance decay)
  • Overlapping

Fij = ai Oi * bj Dj * dij-α

Fij: Estimated flow between the origin i and the destination jOi : Total traffic of the origin i Dj : Total traffic of the destination j dij: road distance betweenorigin i and destination j α : Distance decay ai : Equilibrium factor linked to originsbj : Equilibrium factor linked to destination

conclusion containerization has transformed hinterlands but less than expected
Conclusion: Containerization has transformedhinterlands… but lessthanexpected
  • Main cargo flowstake place between ports and local regions
  • The combinedeffect of mass (traffic) and distance accounts for 86% of the variation of total flows, 69% for manufactured cargo flows
  • The restisprobably due to forelanddifferenciation, strategiespursued by transport operators and governments, specificgeographies of niche markets,…
  • In the light of previousworks (Charlier, 1981), French hinterlands are rather stable and pathdependent over the long term.
implications
Implications
  • Immediate hinterlands are not captive. The demand of local shippers must betakenseriously by port authorities.
  • Hinterlands go beyond national borders. This suggests the need for a more cohesiveEuropean port policy (complementarity)
  • Our model quantified distance decay values for several types of cargo. Theseresultsprovideempirical support for making scenarios (i.e. forecasting port traffic, measuringvulnerability of activities and territories in case of stop of port activity)
follow on projects
Follow-on projects

Detailedsectoralanalysis (i.e. wine)

How wineproducers and importersorganizetheir maritime shipments?

Indirect hinterlands

How and where imports are redispatchedinside the country? (French ECHO survey)

slide20
Thankyou

David Guerrero,

Université Paris-Est, Ifsttar, Splott

Le Descartes II

2, rue de la Butte Verte

93166 Noisy-le-Grand, France

Tél. +33 (0)1 45 92 56 85

Fax. +33 (0)1 45 92 55 01

www.ifsttar.fr

[email protected]

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