CariCOOS – CFMC Where do Fish Larvae Go when Spawned in the ABT? August 24, 2016

1. CariCOOS – CFMC Where do Fish Larvae Go when Spawned in the ABT? August 24, 2016 CFMC 157th Meeting, San Juan PR Jorge E. Capella, Miguel Canals, Estefanía Quiñones, Fabian Garcia and Carlos Sosa

3. AMSEAS and ROMS model output and HF Radar observations (velocity fields) were used to determine the path of dispersal (or particle trajectories) of large numbers of virtual eggs and early larvae from the three marine protected areas (ABT MPAs) off the west coast of Puerto Rico, and from the spawning aggregation region at La Parguera. What did we do? Virtual particles were released at the four source locations from December 1, 2014 to May 31, 205, which covers the spawning season for many commercially important snapper and grouper species including the red hind (Epinephelus guttatus) and the mutton snapper (Lutjanus analis). Surface drifter and ADCP field validation of model and radar time series were performed.

4. Some Specifications • Particle = egg and early larvae • Planktonic stages only (non swimming, non feeding) • 14-day virtual particle trajectories • Floating particles (those from many targeted species actually do) • Target species are deemed to be commercially important, like groupers and snappers • Focus on MPA regional scales, not on small scales • End results expressed as connectivity matrices "All models are wrong but some are useful“, George Box (1978)

5. Previous Work Examples

6. Visualization of a 30-day simulated coral spawning event based on NOAA’s Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) ocean current data starting on August 21, 2011. Schill SR, Raber GT, Roberts JJ, Treml EA, Brenner J, et al. (2015) No Reef Is an Island: Integrating Coral Reef Connectivity Data into the Design of Regional-Scale Marine Protected Area Networks. PLoS ONE 10(12): e0144199. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0144199 http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0144199

7. Something about Currents in the Bajo de Sico • Strong semidiurnal tidal flows • Northward mean • Same general pattern at AlS and TBa

8. AMSEAS – ROMS Models CariCOOS AMSEAS Movie CariCOOS ROMS Movie

9. CariCOOS HFR Network CariCOOS HFR

10. Drifter Trajectories and Validation vs. HFR Full areaMona Passage

11. Particle Tracking Methods • HFR – Random Flight • ROMS – LTRANS • AMSEAS – Local Code • All use Matlab as front end • Particles released continuously at 1-hour intervals from 12/1/14 to 5/31/15 • Thousands of virtual trajectories per method • Particles released during observed spawning aggregations (Dr. Scharer provided this information) • Graphical PTM is being developed by F. Garcia

12. AMSEAS Particle Tracking

13. AMSEAS Particle Tracking

14. ROMS Particle Tracking

15. AMSEAS Particle Tracking

16. AMSEAS Particle Tracking

17. Mesoscale Eddies in the Caribbean Sea Geostrophic Flow - SSHA

18. Particle Densities - AMSEAS

19. Connectivity Matrices - AMSEAS

20. Particle Densities TBa – Spawning - AMSEAS

21. Particle Densities BdS – Spawning - AMSEAS

22. Particle Densities AlS – Spawning - ROMS

23. Preliminary Observations • Consistent particle advection patterns from the three velocity fields: ROMS, AMSEAS and HFR • General meridional particle advection along the west coast of PR, with a northward mean • Westward particle advection along the south-southwest shelf and northwards into the Mona Passage • Westward particle advection upon exiting the Mona Passage • Non-deterministic mesoscale eddies in the Caribbean Sea, particularly anticyclonic eddies, may impede local recruitment from spawning aggregations in the Mona Passage • The three west coast MPAs (ABT) are strongly connected among themselves and with other known fishing grounds in the Mona Passage

24. Questions