Offender Population Forecasts

1. Offender PopulationForecasts

2. Studies by JLARC in 1980s • The Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission (JLARC) first reviewed the Department of Corrections’ (DOC) forecasting procedures in 1985 and reported weaknesses in the methods used by DOC to forecast the inmate population. • A 1987 JLARC report recommended changing the forecasting process. • “The process for producing and validating the forecasts should be expanded to include more participants. Such a process would ensure that key actors in the criminal justice system have input into the forecast. Moreover, such a group would promote general understanding of the forecast and the assumptions which drive it.” Source: An Overview of Expenditure Forecasting in Four Major State Programs, JLARC (2000)

3. Virginia utilizes consensus forecasting An open, participative process that brings together policy makers, administrators and technical experts from all branches of state government Department of Corrections Department of Juvenile Justice Department of Criminal Justice Services Department of Planning & Budget Compensation Board Supreme Court of Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission Virginia Commonwealth University Parole Board State Police Members of Senate Finance and House Appropriations Staff of Senate Finance and House Appropriations Commonwealth’s Attorney representative Police Chief representative Sheriff representative Regional jail representative

4. Virginia utilizes consensus forecasting • Policy Advisory Committee • Reviews the projections and selects a forecast for each population • Considers the impact of recent trends and newly adopted legislation • Approves adjustments to forecasts as it deems appropriate Technical Advisory Committee Examines trends in reported crimes, arrests, court caseloads, etc. Develops multiple forecast models Scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards Proposes forecasts with the best set of statistical properties Liaison Work Group Reviews projections proposed by the Technical Committee Requests additional data or analysis as needed Recommends forecasts to the Policy Committee w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w Chaired by Barry Green, Director, DJJ Chaired by Secretary John Marshall Chaired by Meredith Farrar-Owens

5. Four Offender Forecasts Are Produced Local-responsible (LR) prisoner population Prisoners confined in local and regional jails (excluding state and federal prisoners) State-responsible (SR) inmate population Inmates housed in DOC prison facilities and state-responsible inmates housed in jails Juvenile correctional center (JCC) population Juveniles committed to the state Juvenile detention home (JDH) population Juveniles placed in local facilities

6. Technical Advisory Committee • Two analysts from two different agencies work independently to develop competing forecast models. • Confidence in the official forecast is bolstered if the different methods used by the two agencies converge on the same future population levels. • The Technical Committee scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards. • Forecasts with the best set of statistical properties are recommended to the Liaison Work Group. • The Technical Committee also examines trends in reported crimes, arrests, court caseloads, etc., and provides this information to the Liaison Work Group and Policy Committee.

7. National and State Trends

8. National trends in jail populations • From June 2007 to June 2008, the nation’s jail population increased 0.7%, the smallest annual rate of growth in 27 years. • Some of the largest jails in the South and Northeast saw declines from June 2007 to June 2008: • Charlotte/Mecklenburg Co. - 5% • Atlanta/Fulton Co. - 3% • New York City - 2% • Washington DC - 2% • Baltimore + 2% Sources: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/press/pimjim08stpr.htm http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/jim08st.pdf http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/pim08st.pdf

9. National trends in prison populations • From January through June 2008, the nation’s prison population increased by 0.8%, compared to 1.6% during the same period in 2007. • Sixteen states reported decreases in their prison populations from January to June 2008. The rate of growth slowed in 18 other states. • Some states in the South and Northeast experienced a decline in their prison population from January to June 2008: • New York - .7% • Maryland - .6% • Georgia - .4% • North Carolina + 3% Sources: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/press/pimjim08stpr.htm http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/jim08st.pdf http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/pim08st.pdf

10. Violent Index Crime Rates in Virginia, 2002 – 2008 Crimes per 100,000 population Note: 2008 figures are preliminary. Source: Virginia State Police Incident-Based Crime Reporting Repository System as analyzed by the Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center (July 20, 2009)

11. Property Index Crime Rates in Virginia, 2002 – 2008 Crimes per 100,000 population Note: 2008 figures are preliminary. Source: Virginia State Police Incident-Based Crime Reporting Repository System as analyzed by the Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center (July 20, 2009)

12. Arrests of Adults (Age 18+) in Virginia, 2002 – 2008 Drug Property Number of Arrests Violent Source: Virginia State Police Incident-Based Crime Reporting Repository System as analyzed by the Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center (July 22, 2009)

13. Drug Arrests in Virginia by Drug Type, 2004 – 2008 Marijuana field test kit implemented Note: 2008 figures are preliminary. Source: Virginia State Police Incident-Based Crime Reporting Repository System as analyzed by the Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center (July 20, 2009)

14. While the total number of arrests for index crimes and drug offenses was up by 2.5% in 2008, the number of felony defendants in circuit court declined by 6.2% in 2008. Felony defendants in circuit court New misdemeanor cases in general district court (excluding criminal traffic misdemeanors) increased by 2.2% in 2007 and 2.5% in 2008. New criminal misdemeanor cases in general district court Source: Supreme Court of Virginia (July 20, 2009)

15. Average Monthly Backlog of Forensic Analysis Cases The growth and decline in the case backlog was due primarily to drug cases. * FY2009 average is based on data from July 2008 through January 2009. Source: Department of Forensic Science Workload Summary

16. Trends in drug crime and enforcement may be affecting Virginia’s jail and prison populations • Overall, drug arrests declined more than 6% in 2008. • Cocaine arrests dropped by 26% • Marijuana arrests increased by 1.4% • The average number of drug cases received by the Department of Forensic Science each month declined by 26% from 2006 to 2009. • Total cocaine specimens dropped by 34% from 2006 to 2008. • The number of offenders in jail awaiting trial for felony drug charges declined by 28% between June 2007 and June 2009.

17. Trends in drug crime and enforcement may be affecting Virginia’s jail and prison populations • Federal data suggest reduced availability of cocaine. Law enforcement efforts (e.g., seizures, crop eradication, and border security) and the drug war in Mexico appear to be impacting the ability of traffickers to deliver drugs to the U.S.

18. Local-Responsible Jail Population Forecast

19. Local-Responsible Jail Population FY1999 – FY2009 September 2006 Note: Data are based on the average population for each month reported. Source: Virginia Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center (July 20, 2009)

20. Changes in Local-Responsible Jail Population Categories All categories of the local-responsible jail population decreased in FY2009, except sentenced misdemeanants, which grew by 4.5%. Note: Figures reflect the average population for each fiscal year reported. Source: Virginia Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center (July 20, 2009)

21. Local-Responsible Jail Population FY2007 – FY2009 September 2007 21,027 July 2009 19,512 August 2009 19,555 September 2008 20,505 June 2009 19,355

22. Discussion of the local-responsible jail population forecast Some law enforcement officials around the country are reporting an increase in drug use and/or low-level drug sales, which they link to the bad economic times and layoffs. Will law enforcement efforts and the drug war in Mexico continue to have an impact? • Drug crime and enforcement • Law enforcement resources With tight budgets, police departments may freeze vacancies and reduce paid overtime. This may mean fewer man-hours on patrol and fewer street arrests. • Economy and certain types of crime To what degree will bad economic times be associated with increases in certain types of crimes, such as larceny or domestic violence?

23. Discussion of the local-responsible jail population forecast Budget cuts have resulted in reductions in dollars for drug and mental health treatment for offenders. Some anticipate an increase in recidivism rates. • Substance abuse and mental health treatment In Melendez-Diaz, the US Supreme Court ruled that a forensic analyst generally must testify in person, unless waived by the defendant. During a special session, the General Assembly extended Virginia’s speedy trial requirements to ensure that the analyst is available to testify. This may result in an increase in the length of time defendants remain in jail awaiting trial. • US Supreme Court Decision

24. DCJS & DPB Forecasts: Local-Responsible Jail Population DPB Forecast DCJS Forecast Historical Forecast: Actual:

25. Approved Local-Responsible Jail Population Average of DCJS & DPB Forecasts Historical Forecast: Actual:

26. Local-Responsible Jail Population and Approved Forecast FY2007 – FY2010 Historical Average of DCJS & DPB Forecasts Average of ActualDCJS & DPB Forecasts Jul 2009 19,512 19,523 Aug 2009 19,555 19,718

27. State-Responsible Inmate Population Forecast

28. State-Responsible Prison Population FY2000 – FY2009 Note: Figures reflect June 30 population for each year reported. Source: Virginia Department of Corrections (July 20, 2009)

29. Persons Entering the Unsentenced Awaiting Trial Population with a Felony ChargeFY2006 – FY2009 Source: Compensation Board (August 5, 2009)

30. New Court CommitmentsCY1999 – CY2008 Preliminary Note: Historical data have been updated to reflect the most recent information available from the new data system known as CORIS. Source: Virginia Department of Corrections – CORIS System (September 9, 2009)

31. State-Responsible Prison Population FY2007 – FY2009 May 2008 38,859 July 2009 38,329 December 2008 38,256 July 2007 37,974

32. Approved State-Responsible Inmate Forecast Projected Historical ActualForecast Jul 2009 38,329 38,360 Aug 2009 38,400 38,389 Forecast:

33. Approved State-Responsible Inmate Forecast

34. Technical Probation Violator Population Forecast According to the Department of Corrections, only 53% of habitual probation technical violators are likely divertible; approximately 47% are not good candidates to divert because of security (22%), mental health (15%) or medical reasons (10%). Note: Forecasted figures represent the population as of June 30 of each year.