1 / 51

October 22, 2010

Leckey Forum Alliance for Housing Solutions. Housing Trends and the Future Needs For the Region. John C. McClain, AICP Senior Fellow and Deputy Director Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University. October 22, 2010. Intro and How We Got Here

irma
Download Presentation

October 22, 2010

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Leckey Forum Alliance for Housing Solutions Housing Trends and the Future Needs For the Region John C. McClain, AICPSenior Fellow and Deputy Director Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy, George Mason University October 22, 2010

  2. Intro and How We Got Here • The Economic Backdrop • National and Regional • Housing Trends and Outlook • National, Regional, Arlington • The Future Need for Housing • Factors and Challenges Ahead

  3. How we got here

  4. New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate Washington Metro, All Housing Types % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Hanley Wood

  5. The Economic Backdrop

  6. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP Quarters After Trough Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,

  7. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS Sep = + 321 Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA

  8. Initial Unemployment Claims 000s (4-week moving average) 454

  9. U.S. Unemployment Rate % 9.6 % GI Fcst 9.7 9.6 9.1 8.5 7.9 7.3 Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted

  10. U.S. Housing TrendsNew & Existing Home Sales (000s) (000s) Existing (left scale) New (Right Scale)

  11. U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices Nov 2006 – Aug 2010 RECESSION > > > > L.I. C.I.

  12. Consumer Confidence Present Situation 100 Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  13. US GDP and Washington GRP % Washington GRP US GDP

  14. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  15. Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  16. Job Change by SectorAug 2009 – Aug 2010Northern Virginia Total 15,900 (000s) Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  17. Unemployment Rate % U.S. 9.5 6.2 5.1 MSA NVA 4.1 ARL Source: BLS (Not seasonally adjusted)

  18. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Aug 09 – Aug 10 (000s) Washington + 20,500 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  19. The Housing Market Trends and Outlook

  20. U.S. Housing Starts Millions Forecast > > > > > > > > Source: Global Insight

  21. U.S. Existing Home Sales Millions Forecast > > > > > > > > Source: Global Insight

  22. Factors at the National Level • Home Price Declines Have Moderated and in Several Metro Areas are Up Slightly in last 6-9 months • End of home buyer tax credit in June • Foreclosures in 2010 up slightly over 2009 and was up over 2008 – Working them through the system • Household Growth/Formation Has Slowed • US Population Increasing 3 Million Per Year = Need for 1.5 New Housing Units • Housing Starts at Historic Lows, in 2009 = 30% of Need for “Average Year” • The National Discussion Ahead re: Public Policy for Home Ownership

  23. House Price Index ChangeJan 2000 – Jan 2010 % Source: Case Shiller (S&P)

  24. Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through September 2010 12-Month Moving Average

  25. Percent Change in Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2010, MSA % Jan-May, 2006 >100 % Sep = + 2.1% Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  26. Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $311.5K Sep 2010 + 155 % to June 2006 Peak - 27 % from Peak + 5.8 %/yr 99-10 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  27. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  28. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern VirginiaAll Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  29. Housing Affordability Index Washington Metro Area

  30. Foreclosure Trends3rdQuarter Each YearWashington Metro Area Foreclosures/10,000 o-o units * Estimated Source: RealtyTrac and GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  31. Median Sales PriceAll Housing TypesArlington County $ -8% From Peak 11-Yr Avg. = 6.6%/Yr + 150%, 1998-2005, 18%/yr Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  32. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeArlington CountyAll Housing Types % Annual Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  33. Arlington County Existing Sales Statistics - September Average Price Sept 2010 = Feb 2005

  34. Fairfax County Affordable/Workforce Housing ProjectNovember 2006John C. McClain, AICPSenior Fellow and Deputy DirectorCenter for Regional Analysis George Mason University

  35. Job and HouseholdGrowth, 1990 -2005

  36. 1990 - 2005 Households Needed to Supply Workers for Job Growth 124,200 Deficit = 43,200 81,000 Assumes 1.5 Workers per HH

  37. Forecasts of Jobs and Households 2005 -2025

  38. 2005 - 2025 Households Needed to Supply Workers for Job Growth 142,500 Deficit =37,700 104,800 Assumes 1.5 Workers per HH

  39. 2005 Jobs and Wages, Fairfax County

  40. Housing Units Needed by Tenure by Price, 2005 – 2025, Fairfax County

  41. Fairfax CountyRental Housing Affordability: 2005-2010-2025Percent of Rental Units Affordable % Household Income Level

  42. Fairfax CountyFor-Sale Housing Affordability: 2005-2010-2025Percent of Units Affordable % Household Income Level

  43. The Need for Housing in the Washington Region • 2002 GMU Study of the Future Housing Supply and Demand for the Washington Region: • In 2005, a shortage of 43,000 housing units • By 2025, the shortage would grow to 218,000 • Primarily caused by longer commuting in the search for more affordable housing: • In 2000: 230,000 workers commuting from outside the region to work in the region • In 2007: increased to 260,000 workers

  44. Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments • Housing Directors Advisory Committee – “Affordable Housing Goals for the National Capital Region” – 2009 • “The need for affordable housing has reached a critical stage at both the national level and the region at large. Limited access to affordable housing for low- and moderate-income families is a prevalent cross-jurisdictional issue”. • Estimated affordable housing need based on projected growth in employment 2005-2015

  45. Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments • Forecast of job change from 2005 – 2015: 538,000 • Total Housing units needed for workers: 330,000 • Affordable housing unit shortfall: 71,000 • Future shortfall + Current need (HUD): 273,000

  46. Washington Metropolitan Area Housing Requirements, 2010-2030 513,300 Housing Units in millions Housing Units for Non-Resident Workers 700,000 HUs for Resident Workers Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, The Future of the Washington Metropolitan Area Economy, Prepared for The 2030 Group, 2010

  47. The Factors and Challenges Ahead • The bursting of the housing market bubble hasn’t changed the challenge to increase the supply of affordable housing. • There is a clear need for more housing and more housing in the right locations that support healthy economic growth and healthy communities. • There is increasing awareness of the link between the costs of housing and transportation. • Changing preferences: proximity not only to jobs but also amenities…”GenY” and “empty nesters”?

  48. Directions for Solutions • Better planning and zoning strategies that encourage more housing development. E.G., Tysons Corner and Reston rail corridor planning. • Redevelopment in areas of high access to jobs • Affordable dwelling unit ordinances (and applied to mid- and high-rise) • Local Government Initiatives & Local Community and Non-Profit Initiatives

More Related