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Challenges and Changes The Next Chapter in the Health Reform Debate November 30, 2010 Joseph R. Antos, Ph.D. Wilson H. Taylor Scholar in Health Care and Retirement Policy American Enterprise Institute. Health programs drive the federal deficit. Federal spending as a percentage of GDP.

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Challenges and Changes

The Next Chapter in the Health Reform Debate

November 30, 2010

Joseph R. Antos, Ph.D.

Wilson H. Taylor Scholar in Health Care

and Retirement Policy

American Enterprise Institute


Health programs drive the federal deficit
Health programs drive the federal deficit

Federal spending as a percentage of GDP

Source: Author’s calculations based on CBO, “The Long-Term Budget Outlook,” December 2007.


The new exchange subsidy
The new Exchange subsidy

Source: CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook, June 2010


Is this sustainable
Is this sustainable?

Medicare/GDP (%)

11.18%

Prior Law

10.70%

Alternative

6.37%

Current Law

Source: www.cms.gov/ReportsTrustFunds/downloads/2010TRAlternativeScenario.pdf


The fourth health entitlement
The fourth health “entitlement”

$ Billions

Tax breaks for other health spending

Tax breaks for private insurance

Source: JCT, Tax Expenditures for Health Care, July 30, 2008


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