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Economics of A.I.

Economics of A.I. Robin Hanson George Mason University. A Fog of Future Possibilities. To Deal With: Focus on big, robust, sharp changes Combine expert knowledge from several fields Beware: experts in A with newspaper level knowledge of B. Types of Views. A.I.-Econ View Combos. Econ.

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Economics of A.I.

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  1. Economics of A.I. Robin Hanson George Mason University

  2. A Fog of Future Possibilities To Deal With: • Focus on big, robust, sharp changes • Combine expert knowledge from several fields • Beware: experts in A with newspaper level knowledge of B.

  3. Types of Views

  4. A.I.-Econ View Combos Econ Amateur Expert Amateur A.I. Expert

  5. Social Science Exists!! Once Express Tech in Econ Terms, Can Say • Tech’s social implications • Given weak regulation • Given particular strong regulation • Likely regulations, given political climate • Likely political climates • Social support of tech innovations • Tech innovations given social support ✔✔✔✔✔ ✔✔✔ ✔✔ ✔ ✔✔✔ ✖

  6. Econ Terms • Utility Functions – what folks want • Like outputs, e.g. ,products, services • Dislike give up inputs, e.g., effort, time • Production Functions - outputs from inputs • Endowments – base inputs, e.g. abilities • Info - who knows how much about what • Deals - trades allowed, contracts enforced

  7. Economics of Robots • Staple of fiction – ancient legends to TV now • If have more of X, do you want Y more (complement) or less (substitute)? • Machine as Substitute to human labor • Predicts wages fall to machine cost • Ricardo 1821, most science fiction • Automation as Complement to human labor • Predicts wages rise as automation costs fall • Wicksell 1923, modern economics consensus • So are robots a substitute or complement?

  8. Human Advantage Useful Mental Tasks Robots Substitute On Task, But Tasks Are Complements Tasks Are Complements Machines Do These Humans Do These Substitute For Task

  9. Human Advantage Useful Mental Tasks A Rising Tide

  10. Human Advantage Useful Mental Tasks A Rising Tide

  11. A Simple Robot Growth Model Assume constant: Seek These

  12. Switch Between Growth Modes Exogenous Tech Endogenous Tech Pre-Robot Post-Robot Learning by doing:

  13. 100x Faster Growth Isn’t Crazy Slow Mid Fast

  14. Error 9.6% 2.0% 1.7%

  15. World Product Growth Rate Could It Happen Again? Industry Farming Hunting Brains

  16. Growth Mode Statistics

  17. Forecasting The Next Mode Sample growth rate transition Date Rate

  18. Industry Shares of US GDP

  19. Factor Shares of Income

  20. Cheap For Robots • Immortality (even so, most can’t afford) • Travel – transmit to new body • Nature – don’t need ecosystems • Wildly differing bodies • Widely varying mental abilities – e.g., run speed • Survive in severe environments • Backups insure against severe events • Labor – work gets less tool intensive

  21. Copies Become Cheap • Malthusian population explosion • Makes rapid economic growth • Robot wages fall to hardware cost • And hardware costs fall fast too • Human wages may fall to robot wages • Depends on human-robot task landscape shape • Not matter if robots slave or free • Only Draconian population or wage laws could stop

  22. Humans Eclipsed • Wages well below human subsistence • Though some humans may find servant jobs • But rich if held non-wage assets • Investments double as fast as economy! • Robot-Human war unlikely if integrated • E.g., lefties don’t war against righties

  23. Human Level Robots Require • Sensors/Actuators (arms/eyes) ~now • Processors <~2040 • Software ?? • Direct code it? Hard! • Learn from brain organization? Eventually? • Simulate particular human brain? Can Do!

  24. Needed To Emulate Brains • Model each brain cell type • Scan – freeze, slice, 2D scan • Computer (very parallel task)

  25. Simulating Dominos • Wave speed, energy are robust • Only a few details matter • Brains seem similar

  26. Emulations Feel Human • Most emulations are of few best humans • First mover advantage to show quality • Remember human life, retain human tendencies • love, gossip, argue, sing, violate, play, work, innovate • More alienated worlds - as farms, factories were • Office work in virtual reality, • Physical work in android bodies • Many humans won’t believe conscious, “is me” • But same social implications, few dozen is plenty

  27. More Implications • Copies rent bodies, or own on loan • Evicted if can’t pay!! • To recoup training investment, copy cabal limit copy wage • Security to prevent bootleg copies • Fast growth discourages transport, encourages local production • Laws hold copies co-responsible • <1cm robots seem feasible • Mind/body sped up with size reduction • 0.2in. tall => Subjective year/day in 24hr/4min • One skyscraper holds billions - is megacity • City radius now is hour travel distance => 10sec

  28. IP rights secure? Regulation fears? Second mover better? Secrets leak fast? What products drive? Rights of Emulation Govt. Slow or Speed? What tech ready last? Computer –> gradual Sim/Model –> sudden Time Line Non-Profit Research For-Profit Research And Development Sell, Maintain, Use

  29. World Product, 10K BC-2K AD Singularities!

  30. World Product, 2 Million BC+

  31. Bigger Brains Millions of Years

  32. Modeling Exponential Sequences Exponential Modes CES Combined Method: Min Doubling Time Factor 1st Date Mode Biggest World Product Factor

  33. Outline • Economic capacity drives tech, wartech • World long-term econ trend mostly steady • Now doubles in ~15 years • So far have seen 2-4 “singularities” when • World econ growth rate increased x150-250 • In much less than a previous doubling time • Next?: by 2100, takes 5 yr, double monthly • Candidate driver: whole brain emulation

  34. Now Price Cost Value Quantity Emulation Supply & Demand Later? Price Value Cost Net Quantity

  35. Design Build Maintain Repair Security Material Energy Capital Labor Time Delay • Lockin • Standards • Price Discrim. • Bundle • Lease/Buy • Differentiate Kinds of Costs • Any brain • Per brain • Per copy • Scale • Scope Kinds of Strategy

  36. Speed Weight Portability Reliability Durability Power needs Environs handle Security Nearness to human behavior, feeling Improve: memory, interface range, bandwidth Kinds of Quality

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