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Special Winter Weather Briefing 2/3/2011 – 4 PM slides: www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing. Keith Stellman. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana. Overview. Tonight/Friday Arctic air in place across the region

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special winter weather briefing 2 3 2011 4 pm slides www srh noaa gov shv briefing

Special Winter Weather Briefing2/3/2011 – 4 PMslides:www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

Keith Stellman

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

overview
Overview

Tonight/Friday

Arctic air in place across the region

Upper level system moves in and draws moisture in from the gulf over the cold air.

Accumulations of 1-3 inches snow/minor sleet accumulations possible I-20 Corridor and south (Winter Weather Advisory area) Tyler>Longview>Shreveport>Magnolia>El Dorado and points south.

Ice accumulations of 0.25-0.50 inches possible…(Winter Storm Warning area) Lufkin->Nacogdoches>Natchitoches->Winnfield>Monroe>Columbia>Colfax>Jena

Beginning this evening 6 pm ending by 6 pm Friday. (Winter precipitation north of the Winter Storm Warning area may begin a little later than 6 pm this evening.)

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

big picture
Big Picture

Arctic Surface High

H

Strong Upper Level

Low Pressure Area

Today

L

L

L

Friday

Tngt

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

current radar temps 3 15 pm
Current Radar/Temps – 3:15 PM
  • Temps still at or below Freezing

Initial precip band moving north

sleet snow freezing rain dilemma temperature profile at midnight jena
Sleet/snow/Freezing rain Dilemma Temperature profile at Midnight- Jena
  • High Res models suggest Freezing Rain in Jena with warm nose at 1000-5000 ft (Southeast)
  • Cold nose helps rain freeze quickly

Freezing line

Surface Tempeatures 28-32

Height

sleet snow freezing rain dilemma temperature profile at midnight monroe
Sleet/snow/Freezing rain DilemmaTemperature profile at Midnight- Monroe
  • High Res models suggest Mix with more Freezing Rain
  • Warm nose not as prevalent but deep enough to melt the snow into sleet/FZRA

Freezing line

Surface Tempeatures 27-30

Height

sleet snow freezing rain dilemma temperature profile at midnight natchitoches
Sleet/snow/Freezing rain Dilemma Temperature profile at Midnight- Natchitoches
  • Warm Nose appears and looks deep enough to melt the snow
  • Could either be sleet or freezing rain
  • Toledo Bend->Natchitoches->Jonesboro

Surface Tempeatures 28-31

Freezing line

Height

total liquid equivalent precip amounts 18z high res model run
Total Liquid Equivalent (precip amounts) 18Z High Res Model Run
  • Model has backed off a bit on total amounts
  • Generally > 0.25” of precip in Deep East TX, all of LA except NW.
total liquid equivalent precip amounts model concensus sref
Total Liquid Equivalent (precip amounts) Model Concensus (SREF)
  • Model has reduced amounts slightly as well (0.50 is a max across the Southeast)
  • The 2” line
  • Rouge estimate of the mix line
timing

Heaviest starts occurring

After 9 PM -> 6AM

Timing

6PM-9PM

3PM-6PM

Midnight - 3 AM

3 AM – 6 AM

6 AM – 9 AM

Light snow late morning tapering

Off by ~noon

impacts
Impacts
  • 1-2 inches snow/minor sleet accumulations possible I-20 Corridor and south (Winter Weather Advisory area) Tyler>Longview>Shreveport>Magnolia>El Dorado and points south.
  • Isolated 3” amounts possible further south and east.
  • Lower visibilities after Midnight
  • Ground temps ~40/35 in AR… Precip will stick to bridges/overpasses and main roadways
  • Cold temperatures through Saturday AM to keep it around
  • Ice accumulations of 0.25-0.50 inches possible) Lufkin->Nacogdoches>Natchitoches->Winnfield>Monroe>Columbia>Colfax>Jena
  • Over 0.50” would cause widespread Power outages
    • Only isolated areas in extreme Southeast
  • Instant freeze on all surfaces with temps in the 20s
next conference call

NEXT CONFERENCE CALL:

Next Thursday @ 10 AM www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

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