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How well can we predict the unpredictable climate?

How well can we predict the unpredictable climate? Environment and security seminar, Oslo, 8 Dec. 2004 Prof. Olav Orheim, Director, Norwegian Polar Institute. Content of this presentation The overall climate picture Uncertainty - the ”loaded dice” and can we insure against the risk?

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How well can we predict the unpredictable climate?

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  1. How well can we predict the unpredictable climate? Environment and security seminar, Oslo, 8 Dec. 2004 Prof. Olav Orheim, Director, Norwegian Polar Institute

  2. Content of this presentation The overall climate picture • Uncertainty - the ”loaded dice” and can we insure against the risk? • Lack of knowledge and IPY 2007-2008

  3. We are the first generation that influences global climate and the last generation to escape the consequences Norwegian Glacier Museum, 1991

  4. Natural climate changes_ CO2 level in 2004

  5. CO2 leads CH4 which leads temp. Source: EPICA team. Nature, 10 June 2004

  6. Source: Meteorologisk Institute, Oslo, November 2004

  7. Predicting the unpredictable climate The greenhouse effect is certain - without it no humans! Uncertainties for the future include: Balance between natural and human effects, including variations in output of the sun. Feedbacks, including clouds, albedo, snow and ice, vegetation, carbon storage, atmosphere/ocean interaction Averages can be predicted – not single events. This is the ”loaded dice”

  8. Comparing observed and projected changes 1990’s -2090’s Winter (D,J,F) 1954-2003 Winter (D,J,F)

  9. Southern Europe July/August temperatures, as deviation from 1961-1990 mean. * below is 2003 summer Observed (black) and climate models (colour)Source: Stott, Stone, Allen. Nature, 2. Dec. 2004

  10. Daily mortality, B-W, GermanyPer 100 000 people. Note 2003 heatwave Source: Schär and Jendritzky, Nature 2 December 2004. B-W = Baden-Wurttemberg, Sozialministerium

  11. The Greenland Ice Sheet Satellite Data Documents the Changes

  12. Insuring against climate change? Association of British Insurers in October 2004: ”Global economic losses caused by natural weather catastrophies have increased 10-fold over past 40 years.” ”Damage now increasing 2-4%/year from changing climate.” Mainly floods, storms,avalanches Sea level now rising 2 mm/year, Holland sinks 2 cm/year The Pentagon weather nightmare (“Abrupt climate change”) “The day after tomorrow”

  13. Understanding and Projecting the Changes in the Oceanic Conveyor Belt is a Critical Question for Science

  14. Note Downward Trend beginning in late 1970’s Nine (9) Models Source: Cubasch et al. 2001

  15. Observations so far show no weakening of the ocean transport

  16. International Polar Year 2007-2008 • An intense burst of activity combining, ground observations and satellites, to give a data set for improving climate models and predictions • A permanent legacy of improved Arctic cooperation • Arctic/Antarctic ocean teleconnections – thermohaline circulation and the climate of lower latitudes

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