January 10 11 2009 the winter storm that clipped the tri state
Sponsored Links
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
1 / 35

January 10-11 2009: The Winter Storm that “Clipped” the Tri-State PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 46 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

January 10-11 2009: The Winter Storm that “Clipped” the Tri-State. Patrick Maloit Richard Castro NOAA/NWS Upton, NY. Warning Decision Making Process 12z cycle 9 January 00z cycle 10 January – what changed 12z cycle 10 January – what changed What Actually Happened ?.

Download Presentation

January 10-11 2009: The Winter Storm that “Clipped” the Tri-State

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


January 10-11 2009: The Winter Storm that “Clipped” the Tri-State

Patrick Maloit

Richard Castro

NOAA/NWS

Upton, NY


Warning Decision Making Process

12z cycle 9 January

00z cycle 10 January – what changed

12z cycle 10 January – what changed

What Actually Happened ?

Overview


Warning Decision Making Process

How soon is too soon for a warning?

Is the event on a weekend?

Once a watch/warning is up, how much do you change it?

How much and what has changed from the previous thinking


Warning Decision Making Process

Looking at the data

Are the features well captured by the observational network?

Model comparison/confidence

All about similarities and differences


12z Cycle on Friday January 9, 2009


Water Vapor, and 500 mb Heights and Vorticity 12z 9 Jan 2009


GFS/ECMWF/NAM500 Hgt 12z 9 Jan

Sat

0z Jan 10

Fri

12z Jan 9


GFS/ECMWF/NAM500 Hgt 12z 9 Jan

Sun

0z Jan 11

Sat

12z Jan 10


GFS/ECMWF/NAM500 Hgt 12z 9 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 12


GFS/ECMWF/NAMMSLP 12z 9 Jan

Sat

0z Jan 10

Fri

12z Jan 9


GFS/ECMWF/NAMMSLP 12z 9 Jan

Sun

0z Jan 11

Sat

12z Jan 10


GFS/ECMWF/NAMMSLP 12z 9 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 12


ECMWF500 MBHgt/Vort and300 mb PV - 12z 9 Jan

Sat

12z Jan 10


ECMWF500 MBHgt/Vort and300 mb PV - 12z 9 Jan

Sun

00z Jan 11


ECMWF500 MBHgt/Vort and300 mb PV - 12z 9 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11


GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Hgt 12z 9 Jan

Sun

06z Jan 11

Sun

00z Jan 11


GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Hgt 12z 9 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11


GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Temp 12z 9 Jan

Sun

06z Jan 11

Sun

00z Jan 11


GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Temp 12z 9 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11


NAM Time/Hgt - LGA 12z 9 Jan


NAM Time/Hgt - JFK 12z 9 Jan


GFS/ECMWF/NAM24 Hr QPF 12z 9 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11


The Afternoon Forecast – 9th

Already had Watch in effect for entire CWA

The fact it was a weekend necessitated going to Warnings this package

Thermal Profile was warning/advisory line delineator


Snowfall Forecast pm of 9th


The Afternoon Forecast – 9th

Winter Storm Warnings

All of Southern Connecticut, The Lower Hudson Valley, Northeast New Jersey, Nassau County, Northern Suffolk County, NW City Boroughs (including Queens)

Winter Weather Advisories

Southern Suffolk County and Brooklyn + Staten Island


00z Cycle on January 10, 2009


Water Vapor, and 500 mb Heights and Vorticity 00z 10 Jan 2009


GFS/ECMWF/NAM500 Hgt 0z 10 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11


GFS/ECMWF/NAMMSLP 0z 10 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11


GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Hgt 0z 10 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11

Sun

00z Jan 11


GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Temp 0z 10 Jan

Sun

06z Jan 11


GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Temp 0z 10 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11


The Morning Forecast – 10th

Based on thermal profiles, adjusted all Long Island and NYC, as well as Southern NE NJ Zones to an Advisory

Warmer thermal profile also resulted in slight decrease in amounts


Snowfall Forecast am of 10th


The Morning Forecast – 10th

Winter Storm Warnings

All of Southern Connecticut, The Lower Hudson Valley, Northern Northeast New Jersey

Winter Weather Advisories

NYC, Long Island, Southern Northeast New Jersey


  • Login