January 10 11 2009 the winter storm that clipped the tri state
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January 10-11 2009: The Winter Storm that “Clipped” the Tri-State. Patrick Maloit Richard Castro NOAA/NWS Upton, NY. Warning Decision Making Process 12z cycle 9 January 00z cycle 10 January – what changed 12z cycle 10 January – what changed What Actually Happened ?.

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January 10-11 2009: The Winter Storm that “Clipped” the Tri-State

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January 10 11 2009 the winter storm that clipped the tri state

January 10-11 2009: The Winter Storm that “Clipped” the Tri-State

Patrick Maloit

Richard Castro

NOAA/NWS

Upton, NY


Overview

Warning Decision Making Process

12z cycle 9 January

00z cycle 10 January – what changed

12z cycle 10 January – what changed

What Actually Happened ?

Overview


Warning decision making process

Warning Decision Making Process

How soon is too soon for a warning?

Is the event on a weekend?

Once a watch/warning is up, how much do you change it?

How much and what has changed from the previous thinking


Warning decision making process1

Warning Decision Making Process

Looking at the data

Are the features well captured by the observational network?

Model comparison/confidence

All about similarities and differences


12z cycle on friday january 9 2009

12z Cycle on Friday January 9, 2009


Water vapor and 500 mb heights and vorticity 12z 9 jan 2009

Water Vapor, and 500 mb Heights and Vorticity 12z 9 Jan 2009


Gfs ecmwf nam 500 hgt 12z 9 jan

GFS/ECMWF/NAM500 Hgt 12z 9 Jan

Sat

0z Jan 10

Fri

12z Jan 9


Gfs ecmwf nam 500 hgt 12z 9 jan1

GFS/ECMWF/NAM500 Hgt 12z 9 Jan

Sun

0z Jan 11

Sat

12z Jan 10


Gfs ecmwf nam 500 hgt 12z 9 jan2

GFS/ECMWF/NAM500 Hgt 12z 9 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 12


Gfs ecmwf nam mslp 12z 9 jan

GFS/ECMWF/NAMMSLP 12z 9 Jan

Sat

0z Jan 10

Fri

12z Jan 9


Gfs ecmwf nam mslp 12z 9 jan1

GFS/ECMWF/NAMMSLP 12z 9 Jan

Sun

0z Jan 11

Sat

12z Jan 10


Gfs ecmwf nam mslp 12z 9 jan2

GFS/ECMWF/NAMMSLP 12z 9 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 12


Ecmwf 500 mb hgt vort and 300 mb pv 12z 9 jan

ECMWF500 MBHgt/Vort and300 mb PV - 12z 9 Jan

Sat

12z Jan 10


Ecmwf 500 mb hgt vort and 300 mb pv 12z 9 jan1

ECMWF500 MBHgt/Vort and300 mb PV - 12z 9 Jan

Sun

00z Jan 11


Ecmwf 500 mb hgt vort and 300 mb pv 12z 9 jan2

ECMWF500 MBHgt/Vort and300 mb PV - 12z 9 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11


Gfs ecmwf nam 850 hgt 12z 9 jan

GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Hgt 12z 9 Jan

Sun

06z Jan 11

Sun

00z Jan 11


Gfs ecmwf nam 850 hgt 12z 9 jan1

GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Hgt 12z 9 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11


Gfs ecmwf nam 850 temp 12z 9 jan

GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Temp 12z 9 Jan

Sun

06z Jan 11

Sun

00z Jan 11


Gfs ecmwf nam 850 temp 12z 9 jan1

GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Temp 12z 9 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11


Nam time hgt lga 12z 9 jan

NAM Time/Hgt - LGA 12z 9 Jan


Nam time hgt jfk 12z 9 jan

NAM Time/Hgt - JFK 12z 9 Jan


Gfs ecmwf nam 24 hr qpf 12z 9 jan

GFS/ECMWF/NAM24 Hr QPF 12z 9 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11


The afternoon forecast 9th

The Afternoon Forecast – 9th

Already had Watch in effect for entire CWA

The fact it was a weekend necessitated going to Warnings this package

Thermal Profile was warning/advisory line delineator


Snowfall forecast pm of 9th

Snowfall Forecast pm of 9th


The afternoon forecast 9th1

The Afternoon Forecast – 9th

Winter Storm Warnings

All of Southern Connecticut, The Lower Hudson Valley, Northeast New Jersey, Nassau County, Northern Suffolk County, NW City Boroughs (including Queens)

Winter Weather Advisories

Southern Suffolk County and Brooklyn + Staten Island


00z cycle on january 10 2009

00z Cycle on January 10, 2009


Water vapor and 500 mb heights and vorticity 00z 10 jan 2009

Water Vapor, and 500 mb Heights and Vorticity 00z 10 Jan 2009


Gfs ecmwf nam 500 hgt 0z 10 jan

GFS/ECMWF/NAM500 Hgt 0z 10 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11


Gfs ecmwf nam mslp 0z 10 jan

GFS/ECMWF/NAMMSLP 0z 10 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11


Gfs ecmwf nam 850 hgt 0z 10 jan

GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Hgt 0z 10 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11

Sun

00z Jan 11


Gfs ecmwf nam 850 temp 0z 10 jan

GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Temp 0z 10 Jan

Sun

06z Jan 11


Gfs ecmwf nam 850 temp 0z 10 jan1

GFS/ECMWF/NAM850 Temp 0z 10 Jan

Sun

12z Jan 11


The morning forecast 10th

The Morning Forecast – 10th

Based on thermal profiles, adjusted all Long Island and NYC, as well as Southern NE NJ Zones to an Advisory

Warmer thermal profile also resulted in slight decrease in amounts


Snowfall forecast am of 10th

Snowfall Forecast am of 10th


The morning forecast 10th1

The Morning Forecast – 10th

Winter Storm Warnings

All of Southern Connecticut, The Lower Hudson Valley, Northern Northeast New Jersey

Winter Weather Advisories

NYC, Long Island, Southern Northeast New Jersey


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