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The Pre-VOCALS Model Assessment (PreVOCA). Matt Wyant Chris Bretherton Rob Wood, Univ. of Washington Roberto Mechoso, UCLA ...and most important... Participating modeling groups. PreVOCA.

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the pre vocals model assessment prevoca

The Pre-VOCALS Model Assessment (PreVOCA)

Matt Wyant

Chris Bretherton

Rob Wood,

Univ. of Washington

Roberto Mechoso, UCLA

...and most important...

Participating modeling groups

slide2

PreVOCA

GOAL: Assess the forecast skill and biases of global/ regional model simulations of SE Pacific boundary-layer clouds on diurnal and longer timescales.

WHAT? Daily hindcasts for October 2006 over the SE Pacific.

WHO? 14 modeling groups using regional and global models, including climate models run in forecast mode.

STATUS: Results near submission.

NEXT: A second phase focusing more on cloud-aerosol interaction and chemical transport based on VOCALS-REx period Oct-Nov 2008 will be announced shortly.

www.atmos.washington.edu/~robwood/PreVOCA/index.html

analysis
Analysis

Monthly mean

Diurnal cycle

Synoptic variability

slide11

UChile WRF

COAMPS

IPRC

Obs

pinv

UKMO

EC-oper

NCEP

october soundings at imet buoy location

85W sounding comparisons

Global

forecast

Climate

Regional

October soundings at IMET BUOY location

Sharpness of inversion challenges even the highest-resolution models

mean boundary layer depth along 20s
Mean Boundary Layer Depth Along 20S

Most models have too low an inversion near the coast.

slide14

Diurnal Composite LWP

TMI climo from

Wood et al. (2002) GRL

18

12

24

6

0

Hour (local)

slide15

Diurnal Composite Low Cloud Fraction

EECRA compiled by Sungsu Park

18

12

24

6

0

Hour (local)

slide16

‘Upsidence’ Wave

20S 75W

20S 80W

20S 85W

MM5

November 14-28 2001

Garreaud and Munoz (2004)

w at 800hPa

from prevoca to voca

From PreVOCA to VOCA...

VOCA: Similar protocol to preVOCA using REx observations from 15 Oct -15 Nov 2008

More focus on chemical transport, aerosol concentrations and reff vs. in-situ and CALIPSO data.

We will send out a detailed protocol in summer 2009. All modeling groups are welcome (with or without chemical transport modeling capability).

conclusions
Conclusions
  • Much scatter in PBL/Sc properties, esp. among regional models: an issue for aerosol-cloud interaction?
  • Mean biases are the most important error.
  • UKMO and ECMWF models performed best overall, correctly capturing most geographic and temporal variations in PBL depth/structure and cloud cover.
  • VOCALS SE Pacific datasets are wonderful tools for assessing and improving cloud and aerosol simulations.
  • We welcome other models to participate in VOCA.
vocals
VOCALS

The VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study

  • A multiyear study of boundary layer cloud, aerosol, and upper ocean heat/constituent transport
  • WHOI stratus flux-reference buoy at 20S 85W (2000+)
  • Annual instrumented cruises in austral spring (starting with EPIC 2001 stratocumulus cruise).
  • Regional Experiment (REx) in Oct.-Nov. 2008, including 4 aircraft based in northern Chile, two ships, coastal site:
  • Satellite data analysis of cloud properties
  • Atmosphere and ocean modeling (LES to global).
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