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Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications Forum Gainesville, Florida October 19, 2001. Presentation Overview. What Prompted This Project? What were our Objectives?

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Choices for the future a presentation on the willamette valley alternative transportation futures project transpor

Choices for the FutureA Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications ForumGainesville, FloridaOctober 19, 2001


Presentation overview

Presentation Overview

  • What Prompted This Project?

  • What were our Objectives?

  • How did we carryout the Project?

  • What did we Learn?

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Origins of oregon s land use program

Origins of Oregon’s Land Use Program

  • Concerns over:

    • loss of farm and forest land

    • sprawl

    • environmental impacts of growth

  • Senate Bill 100

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Key provisions of sb 100

Key Provisions of SB 100

  • 19 Planning Goals dealing with a range of issues including:

    • housing, transportation, urbanization, farm and forest land

  • Establishment of Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB’s)

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Beyond sb 100

Beyond SB 100

  • Move beyond focus on UGB “Islands”

  • Willamette Valley Efforts

    • Partnership for Valley Future Conference (Oregon Progress Board) - 1994

    • Willamette Valley Transportation Strategy - 1995

    • Willamette Valley Livability Forum - 1996

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


The wvlf is a voluntary consortium of over 80 members

The WVLF is a Voluntary Consortium of Over 80 Members

  • Forum Purpose - Help Valley residents and decision-makers find and promote solutions to growth and development issues in the Valley

  • Forum Goals:

  • Share information

  • Make connections

  • Build a vision

  • Advise state and local officials


Opportunity

Opportunity

Pacific Northwest Ecosystem Research Consortium

Willamette River Basin Case Study

1000 Friends of Oregon

Willamette Valley Alternative Futures Research Project

ODOT’s Development of Statewide Model

Alternative Transportation Futures Project


Purpose

Purpose

1) Take a long-range look at the future of land use and transportation in Oregon’s Willamette Valley.

2) Identify policy choices to avoid or minimize future impacts of growth on transportation.

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Guided by a 14 member project steering committee

Guided by a 14-member ProjectSteering Committee

Robert Liberty, 1000 Friends of Oregon

Bob Russell,OHUA

Richard Brandman, Metro

Susan Brody, WVLF

Marcia Kelley, MWACT

Tom Schwetz, LCOG

Mike Propes, Polk County

Joan Baker, EPA

Jon Chandler, OBIA

Chris Hagerbaumer,OTRAN

Bob Cortright, DLCD

Gary Johnson, ODOT

Ed Gallagher,Governor's Comm. Dev. Office

Craig Greenleaf, ODOT

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Approach

Approach

  • Used state-of-art computer modeling techniques

  • Simulated effects of alternative land use and transportation policies over the next 50 years for 11,500 Sq Mi Valley and State as a whole

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Integrated statewide computer model

Integrated StatewideComputer Model

Analytical tool to help understand complex interactions among Oregon’s economy, land use patterns, and transportation system

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Scope of integrated model

Scope of Integrated Model

  • Designed to address the policy concerns in Oregon such as the effects of:

    • Land use and transportation policies on population and employment distributions;

    • Land use on travel behavior;

    • Highway capacity increases on travel behavior and land use;

    • Transit investments on highway use; and

    • Changes in the state’s population and economy on transportation and land use.

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


122 analysis zone structure

122-Analysis Zone Structure

Not high definition – the model’s resolution lends itself to regional levels of analysis, rather than evaluations of short-distance trips.

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Economic submodel calculates overall economic activity

Economic Submodel Calculates overall economic activity

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Location submodel allocates population and employment growth

Location Submodel Allocates population and employment growth

A

B

C

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Transportation submodel calculates travel resulting from movement of goods svcs

Transportation Submodel Calculates travel resulting from movement of goods/svcs

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Policy choices considered

Policy Choices Considered

  • Land available for development

  • Investments in highways and transit

  • Cost of driving

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Evaluated seven scenarios

Evaluated Seven Scenarios

  • Created scenarios with distinct differences to facilitate evaluation of results

  • Evaluated each to the year 2050 in 5-year increments

  • Used same statewide population and employment forecasts

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Framework for scenarios

Mile Tax

Compact Dev

Demand

System

Improvements

Transit

& Hwy

Management

Land Use

Measures

Hybrids 1&2

Framework for Scenarios

No Action

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


What have we learned

What have we learned ?

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


There s no silver bullet

There’s No Silver Bullet

Whatever we do, an additional 1.7 million people will result in increased traffic congestion levels.

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Choices for the future a presentation on the willamette valley alternative transportation futures project transpor

We can have an effect on just how crowded highways will become in years ahead.

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Choices for the future a presentation on the willamette valley alternative transportation futures project transpor

Combining compact development, increased transit service, additional highway lanes, and higher driving costs reduces 2050 traffic congestion levels in half.

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Choices for the future a presentation on the willamette valley alternative transportation futures project transpor

Other Key Findings

  • Transit:

    • Transportation pricing increases transit ridership.

    • Increasing the frequency and convenience of public transit encourages more use.

  • Freight:

    • The hybrid approach also provides the greatest benefit for truck freight mobility

    • Congestion impacts truck freight movement to a greater extent than passenger travel.

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Effects on population and employment distribution

Effects on Population and Employment Distribution

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Choices for the future a presentation on the willamette valley alternative transportation futures project transpor

Expanding public transit concentrates jobs in major urban centers while pulling population to outlying cities.

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Expanding highways draws both people and jobs to outlying cities

Expanding highways draws both people and jobs to outlying cities.

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Overall findings

Overall Findings

  • No single approach (more efficient land use, infrastructure investments, or roadway pricing) is as effective in keeping traffic moving as is a balanced combination of these approaches (Hybrids).

  • The model results confirm the interconnection between the economy, land use and transportation and reinforce the importance of regional approaches for transportation planning.

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Wrap up

Wrap-up

  • Process Lessons

  • Criticisms

  • Things to improve

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Process lessons

Process Lessons

  • Changes the Nature of the Planning Question

  • Difficulty exporting the “Aha”s

    • Process is Experiential

  • Brings home the limits of public policy

  • Value is in exploring broader causes and effects

  • Decision aiding, not decision making

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Criticisms

Criticisms

  • Complex relationships defy modeling for current conditions, let alone Fifty years out for a whole state

  • Highly abstracted results are easily misused/misunderstood by interest groups

  • Avoids more difficult and detailed planning needed in the short run

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Choices for the future a presentation on the willamette valley alternative transportation futures project transpor

Next Generation

Effort currently under way to improve robustness of statewide model by: Increasing geographic resolution (i.e., more analysis zones) and expanding detail of transportation network Accounting for freight transported by rail and barge.Adding capabilities to evaluate peak congestion periods Representing economic interactions between Oregonand rest of the nation.

Alternative Transportation Futures:

A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum


Choices for the future a presentation on the willamette valley alternative transportation futures project transpor

For more information, visit the Willamette Valley Livability Forum’s web site at:www.wvlf.org/atf.html


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