Implementing adaptation to climate variability and change in the Pacific

1. 2nd AIACC Asia and the Pacific Regional WorkshopA Risk-Based Approach to Adaptation (ADB Technical Assistance to the Pacific) Presented by:Edy BrotoisworoAsian Development Bank

2. Implementing adaptation to climate variability and change in the Pacific

3. Climate Change Adaptation Program for the Pacific (CLIMAP) IMPLEMENTATION: Asian Development BankIN COOPERATION WITH: Government of FSM Government of the Cook Islands SOURCE OF FUNDING: Canadian Government under the Canadian Cooperation Fund for Climate Change – GHG abatement, carbon sequestration and adaptationCONSULTANT: Maunsell Ltd, in association with: International Global Change Institute (IGCI)

4. Objectives: mainstreaming climate adaptation through integrated risk reduction (CCIRR) into development planning in selected PDMCs and ADB operations • Activities: a. ADB Operations b. Pilot activities (Cook Islands & FSM)

5. Responding to Climate Variability & Change Human Activities Reduce Risk through Greenhouse Gas Mitigation CLIMATE SYSTEM Extreme Events Variability Change TIME Reduce Risk through Disaster Reduction and Adaptation Consequences (Characterize & Evaluate) Raise Risk Threshold through Adaptation Likelihood (Characterize & Evaluate) Learn from Experience Unacceptable Risks Acceptable Risks

6. Is the climate changing?

7. How much warmer will it be? Increase in mean temperature by 2100 3oF

8. 1.3 ft typical emissions 2.8 ft highest emissions 0.5 ft lowest emissions By how much will sea level rise?

9. Past Future

10. Pam Dec 1997 Peni Feb 1990 Gene Mar 1992 Val Dec 1991 Sally Jan 1987 Sea Level – Rarotonga (1977 – 2002)

11. How much wetter will it be?

12. Daily Rainfall – Rarotonga (1929 – 2003)

14. Consequences for Human Health

15. FSM Case Studies

16. CCAIRR Promotes Integration…… …….Mainstreaming “Climate Proofing” is shortand for reducing, to acceptable levels, the risks due to climate variability and change, including extreme events Reflecting Climate Risks in National Development Planning Demonstrated by “Climate Proofing” National Strategic Development Plans Immediate, Project Level Long Term, National Level Reflecting Climate Risks in Landuse Planning, Regulations and Permitting Demonstrated by “Climate Proofing” such instruments as the Building Code, EIA Regulations and Procedures, And Health Regulations Reflecting Climate Risks in Infrastructure Design and Local Level Decision Making Demonstrated by “Climate Proofing” infrastructure and other Development projects “Cimate Proofed” Development Enabling Environment

17. National Strategic Development Plan Climate Proofing FSM’s National Strategic Development Plan • “……… Infrastructure designed, located, built and maintained to avoid unacceptable risks to infrastructure associated with natural hazards, including weather and climate extremes, variability and change.” • “……… Conduct risk assessments at state level and develop national- and state-level guidelines to ensure risks to infrastructure development projects are identified and addressed in a cost effective manner at the design stage.”

18. How will Climate Change Reduce Project Sustainability?

19. Roading Project: Kosrae (FSM) Design Life: 50 yr Design Rainfall: Hourly rainfall with return period of 25 yr Used: 177 mm 2000: 190 mm 2050: 254 mm

20. Climate Change will Increase Road Maintenance Costs

21. How can Project Sustainability be Maintained Despite Climate Change? “Climate Proofing” is shortand for reducing, to acceptable levels, the risks due to climate variability and change, including extreme events

22. Construction Costs:RS4 (6.6 km section to be built) Costs (2004 $US) • Current Design Road Surface $1,254,414 Drainage Works $ 640,233 Total $1,894,647 • Climate Proofed Design Road Surface $1,254,414 Drainage Works $1,151,397 Total $2,405,811 Incremental Cost $511,164

23. Cost-Benefit Analysis:RS4 Section Yet To Be Built Net Present Values: Current Design • No climate change $4,475,200 • With climate change $7,803,064 Climate Proofed Design • With climate change $4,986,364 Internal Rate of Return 11%

24. Incremental Costof Climate Proofing the Road Costs (2004 US$) • To be built section (6.6 km) • US$ 77,449 per km • Built section (3.2 km) • US$ 242,558 per km Higher costs if climate proofing is retroactive

25. Will Addressing Climate Change: Increase project costs? Reduce project viability?

26. Accumulated Costs – RS4 (to be built) Current Design Climate Proofed

27. Climate Change will ReduceCommunity Sustainability Sokehs Federated States of Micronesia

28. Damage Costs Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Costs and Benefits of ReducingFlooding in Sapwohn Village

29. What are the Implications for Government and ADB Operations? Climate Proofing the Strategic Development Plan

30. The Adaptation Mainstreaming Guidelines Mainstreaming Principles Enhancing the Enabling Environment Harmonizing with Sustainable Devopment

31. Some Key Points………. • Despite international efforts to reduce greeenhouse gas emissions, the need to adapt to climate change is inevitable • Climate change will manifest largely as changes in the frequency and consequences of extreme events, rather than as long-term trends in average conditions • Adaptation should be based on effective and efficient risk reduction strategies • Adaptation costs (including incremental costs) and benefits can be quantified. Typically adaptation is a cost effective intervention, especially when implemented at the design stage of a project. Retrospective adaptation incurs far greater costs

32. Some Key Points………. • Requires integration (“mainstreaming”) of adaptation, across time scales and three levels: • National policy: National Strategic Development Plan • Sector policy: Landuse planning, regulation & enforcement • Project planning and implementation