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Market Health. Investor’s Business Daily New York City Meetup 8.28.13. For Those of You Who Need a Disclaimer…. We Care…But You Should Care More. SYRIA. TAPERING. DEBT CEILING. SEQUESTER. OBAMACARE. UNEMPLOYMENT. Market in Correction. NASDAQ (weekly). ?.

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Market Health

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Market health

Market Health

Investor’s Business Daily New York City Meetup 8.28.13

For those of you who need a disclaimer

For Those of You Who Need a Disclaimer…

We Care…But You Should Care More

Market in correction







Market in Correction

Four year bull market

NASDAQ (weekly)


2012 Has Two Distinct Rallies

Bull Market Begins 3/12/09 With a 31 Week Rally.

2013 Mostly up with one pullback

Short Choppy Rallies 2010 and 2011.

Four Year Bull Market

Tracking the last rally

Rally Health

  • Follow Through Day: 7/11/13 Failed 8/15/13

  • Day 2 (7/15/13): No Professional Distribution

    • Should not have distribution in the first two days

    • Had a distribution cluster starting day three

  • Day 20 (8/8/13): Price Progress

    • Money making rallies on average show advances of 5.5% or higher by day 20.

    • At 20 days, rally gained only 2.53%

  • Day 40 (9/5/13): Get Off Margin

    • Recent rallies have lasted 8 to 10 week

    • N/A

  • Day 50 (9/19/13): No New Buys

    • Most of the good merchandise comes out -2 to +4 weeks from the start of a new rally. By the 10th week you have to ask why this stock didn’t participate until now.

    • N/A

Tracking the Last Rally

The markets

NYSE New Lows beat New Highs

NYSE stocks above 200 DMA very weak and falling

A/D for S&P weak

NYSE New Lows give early clue to leave

Rally day-looking for a Follow-Thru

Kerry speech halts uptrend

The Markets

NYSE New Lows expand

The markets1


New Highs vs New Lows


New Lows Expand

The Markets

New Highs Dry Up

The markets2


New Highs vs New Lows


The Markets

World markets

  • Germany and Europe are stabilizing

  • India, South Africa and Brazil are melting down

  • Australia and South Korea hurt by Japan’s policies

World Markets



Market health


Fuel prices

Fuel Prices

The big picture

The Big Picture


Kerry Speech

Clustered DDs


Rally Fails

NASDAQ Rally without a FTD

New Rally Attempt Undercut

Bernanke Speech

Sucker’s Rally


S p 500

Regains 50 on low volume

50 Day support broken

S&P 500

Ibd mutual fund index

IBD Mutual Fund Index

Russell 2000 weekly

Small Caps Lead

Russell 2000 (Weekly)

Ibd 85 85 index weekly

CAN SLIM Stocks Remain Strong

IBD 85/85 Index (Weekly)

Ibd 50 weekly

RS Line Remains Strong

IBD 50 (Weekly)

Sectors year to date

Sectors (Year to Date)

Sectors since 7 11 13 ftd

Sectors (Since 7/11/13 FTD)

Industry groups

Broad and diverse set of groups in the top 40.

The bottom 40 are mostly commodity, utility and defensive stocks.

Industry Groups

Sector leaders

All of the Sector Leaders are in 7 sectors

Sector Leaders

Sector leaders1

Sector Leaders have expanded from 15 last month to 18 this month

Half of these are near a buy point:



EVR 44.63


OCN 52.35

PRAA 53.09


QCOR 66.92

SSNC 34.54

VRX 94.32

Sector Leaders

What to do now

If You Haven’t Already

  • Have your plan on paper

  • Cut out losers and laggards

  • Sell any stock that doesn’t have true “Model Book” characteristics

  • Set stops on any remaining position and sell if they’re hit without hesitation

  • Raise Cash

    Set Up Your Wish List

  • Watch for pullbacks and tight areas

  • Watch for new bases

  • Watch for high RS stocks

  • Don’t forget about stocks you had to sell

  • Don’t get complacent

What to Do Now


Rigor and the Pursuit of Excellence

Success: A Lot of Little Things Done Well


Be careful out there

Be Careful Out There

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