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2050 Global Energy. Institute of Energy Strategy General Director Prof . , PhD V.V. Bushuev 5 th International Energy Week Moscow , 25 th October 2010. Global cycles & dynamics. Liberalization Postindustrial development 1980-2000 th. Industrial & ecological development

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2050 Global Energy

Institute of Energy Strategy

General Director

Prof., PhD V.V. Bushuev

5th International Energy Week

Moscow, 25th October 2010


Global cycles & dynamics

Liberalization

Postindustrial development

1980-2000th

Industrial & ecological development

State regulation

2020-3030th

Industrialization

State regulation

1950-1960th

Crisis of virtual economy

2008-2010th

Crisis of the industrial phase 2050th

The Great Depression 1930th

Energy crisis of 1970th

Battle for resources after the Cold war

1


Global energy consumption dynamics

Crisis of the 2050th

Crisis of the 2010th

Global primary energy consumption, btce

Crisis of the 1970th

Crisis of the 193th

Electricity & petrol

Gas & nuclear

New energy sources

Coal

Renewables

2


Globakl energy scenarios 2050

Reference scenario

Innovative scenario

Global primary energy consumption, btce

Divergence 2030th

Crisis of the 2050th

Stagnation scenario

Crisis of the 2010th

3


Energy efficiency & global energy scenarios

Global GDP, trln 2009 USD, PPP

Global energy consumption, btoe

Fact

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

- Energy-intensive

- Energy savings

- Energy efficiency

4


Energy sector shift to the developing countries

Global energy consumption, btoe

CO2 emission, billion tonnes

Fact OECD

Reference scenario, OECD

Stagnation scenario, OECD

Innovative scenario, OECD

Fact non-OECD

Reference scenario, non-OECD

Stagnation scenario, non-OECD

Innovative scenario, non-OECD

5


  • Radical car fleet changes are possible

  • Gybrids & electric vehicles – up to 80% of car fleet in 2050

Oil consumption, mln tonnes

Key trends in oil industry

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

Motor vehicle

Electricity & heating

Others

Other transport

Chemicals

6


Oil prices: wave dynamics by neural modeling

  • Downwards trend

  • From commodity market to service & technology market

  • Volatility reduction

  • The end of oil business

Долл. 2009 г. за баррель

Fact

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

7


  • Inevitable trends:

  • Shift to the developing countries

  • The share of unconventional gas rises

  • The share of LNG rises

Gas consumption, bcm

Key trends in gas industry

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

EU

China

US

India

Other OECD

Russia

Other non-OECD

8


Globalization VS regionalization

International trade in oil consumption, %

International trade in gas consumption, %

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

9


  • Faster growth

  • Fuel competition

  • Renewables and new energy sources

  • Large potential market - electric vehicles

  • Innovation scenario - "Electric World"

Electricity consumption, bln mWh

Key trends in electricity sector

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

EU

China

US

India

Other OECD

Russia

Other non-OECD

10


Renewables capacity additions, GW

bln mWh

Renewable electricity consumption

Key trends in renewables:

maximum uncertainty and growth

2050

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

Fact

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

Other OECD

Russia

EU

China

US

India

11

Other non-OECD

Renewables, %


Energy consumption by source, 2010 = 100%

Динамика потребления энергии, млрд т н.э.

Reference scenario - carbon-intensive

Geopolitics + consumption growth + technological inertia

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Renewables

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Oil

Coal

Renewables (right axis)

Gas

Nuclear

12


Energy consumption by source, 2010 = 100%

Динамика потребления энергии,

млрд т н.э.

Stagnation scenario - renewable

Energy savings + climate policy+ renewables

Gas

Nuclear

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Renewables

Oil

Coal

Renewables (right axis)

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

14


Innovative scenario –renewables & nuclear

Energy efficiency + smart energy sector+ market of technologies

Динамика потребления энергии, млрд т н.э.

Energy consumption by source, 2010 = 100%

Gas

Nuclear

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Renewables

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Oil

Coal

Renewables (right axis)

13


Thank you for your attention!

Institute of Energy strategy

www.emergystrategy.ru

Tel. (495) 698-52-34

Е-mail: [email protected]


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