2050 global energy l.jpg
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 16

2050 Global Energy PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 98 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

2050 Global Energy. Institute of Energy Strategy General Director Prof . , PhD V.V. Bushuev 5 th International Energy Week Moscow , 25 th October 2010. Global cycles & dynamics. Liberalization Postindustrial development 1980-2000 th. Industrial & ecological development

Download Presentation

2050 Global Energy

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


2050 global energy l.jpg

2050 Global Energy

Institute of Energy Strategy

General Director

Prof., PhD V.V. Bushuev

5th International Energy Week

Moscow, 25th October 2010


Slide2 l.jpg

Global cycles & dynamics

Liberalization

Postindustrial development

1980-2000th

Industrial & ecological development

State regulation

2020-3030th

Industrialization

State regulation

1950-1960th

Crisis of virtual economy

2008-2010th

Crisis of the industrial phase 2050th

The Great Depression 1930th

Energy crisis of 1970th

Battle for resources after the Cold war

1


Global energy consumption dynamics l.jpg

Global energy consumption dynamics

Crisis of the 2050th

Crisis of the 2010th

Global primary energy consumption, btce

Crisis of the 1970th

Crisis of the 193th

Electricity & petrol

Gas & nuclear

New energy sources

Coal

Renewables

2


Globakl energy scenarios 2050 l.jpg

Globakl energy scenarios 2050

Reference scenario

Innovative scenario

Global primary energy consumption, btce

Divergence 2030th

Crisis of the 2050th

Stagnation scenario

Crisis of the 2010th

3


Energy efficiency global energy scenarios l.jpg

Energy efficiency & global energy scenarios

Global GDP, trln 2009 USD, PPP

Global energy consumption, btoe

Fact

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

- Energy-intensive

- Energy savings

- Energy efficiency

4


Energy sector shift to the developing countries l.jpg

Energy sector shift to the developing countries

Global energy consumption, btoe

CO2 emission, billion tonnes

Fact OECD

Reference scenario, OECD

Stagnation scenario, OECD

Innovative scenario, OECD

Fact non-OECD

Reference scenario, non-OECD

Stagnation scenario, non-OECD

Innovative scenario, non-OECD

5


Slide7 l.jpg

  • Radical car fleet changes are possible

  • Gybrids & electric vehicles – up to 80% of car fleet in 2050

Oil consumption, mln tonnes

Key trends in oil industry

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

Motor vehicle

Electricity & heating

Others

Other transport

Chemicals

6


Slide8 l.jpg

Oil prices: wave dynamics by neural modeling

  • Downwards trend

  • From commodity market to service & technology market

  • Volatility reduction

  • The end of oil business

Долл. 2009 г. за баррель

Fact

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

7


Slide9 l.jpg

  • Inevitable trends:

  • Shift to the developing countries

  • The share of unconventional gas rises

  • The share of LNG rises

Gas consumption, bcm

Key trends in gas industry

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

EU

China

US

India

Other OECD

Russia

Other non-OECD

8


Slide10 l.jpg

Globalization VS regionalization

International trade in oil consumption, %

International trade in gas consumption, %

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

9


Slide11 l.jpg

  • Faster growth

  • Fuel competition

  • Renewables and new energy sources

  • Large potential market - electric vehicles

  • Innovation scenario - "Electric World"

Electricity consumption, bln mWh

Key trends in electricity sector

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

EU

China

US

India

Other OECD

Russia

Other non-OECD

10


Slide12 l.jpg

Renewables capacity additions, GW

bln mWh

Renewable electricity consumption

Key trends in renewables:

maximum uncertainty and growth

2050

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

Fact

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

Other OECD

Russia

EU

China

US

India

11

Other non-OECD

Renewables, %


Slide13 l.jpg

Energy consumption by source, 2010 = 100%

Динамика потребления энергии, млрд т н.э.

Reference scenario - carbon-intensive

Geopolitics + consumption growth + technological inertia

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Renewables

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Oil

Coal

Renewables (right axis)

Gas

Nuclear

12


Slide14 l.jpg

Energy consumption by source, 2010 = 100%

Динамика потребления энергии,

млрд т н.э.

Stagnation scenario - renewable

Energy savings + climate policy+ renewables

Gas

Nuclear

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Renewables

Oil

Coal

Renewables (right axis)

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

14


Slide15 l.jpg

Innovative scenario –renewables & nuclear

Energy efficiency + smart energy sector+ market of technologies

Динамика потребления энергии, млрд т н.э.

Energy consumption by source, 2010 = 100%

Gas

Nuclear

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Renewables

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Oil

Coal

Renewables (right axis)

13


Thank you for your attention l.jpg

Thank you for your attention!

Institute of Energy strategy

www.emergystrategy.ru

Tel. (495) 698-52-34

Е-mail: [email protected]


  • Login