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Regional Demographics Mid-Missouri Economic Summit Capitol Plaza Hotel Jefferson City, MO June 29, 2007 Bill Elder, Director Office of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA) University of Missouri—Columbia. Population and Economic Change

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Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Regional Demographics

Mid-Missouri Economic Summit

Capitol Plaza Hotel

Jefferson City, MO

June 29, 2007

Bill Elder, Director

Office of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA)

University of Missouri—Columbia


Overview

Population and Economic Change

Demographics of Growth in Mid-Missouri

Trends in Missouri by County

Mid-Missouri Components of Growth

2006 Place Population Estimates

Regional Economic Development Trends

Discussion..

Overview

Wh`

Why what you are doing is so important ……


Population change 2000 2006

Population Change 2000-2006

U.S.: 299,398,484 (6.4%) Missouri: 5,842,713 (4.4%)

Dark Green States > 12 %

Five states

account

for 50% of

the nation’s

population

growth

*

*

*

*

*


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Employment

Employment in Missouri increased by 33,100 from April 2006 to April 2007, seasonally adjusted.

Source: MERIC and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


Opportunities in economic change

“The Perfect Storm”

“The Kauffman New Economy Report”

How Flat is our world?

Opportunities in Economic Change


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Divergent skill distributions

The changing economy

Demographic shifts

Educational Testing Service


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Divergent skill distributions

Flat NAEP scores

High school graduation slacking

Poor literacy and math skills

Race and ethnic gaps


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

The changing economy

Declining manufacturing – more service

Two thirds of job growth has been associated with college-level jobs

College grads earn 51% more than H.S. grads

Earning premiums reward education & skill


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Demographic shifts

Labor force will grow more slowly

Impact of the baby boom..

Dependence on International migration

Increasing Hispanic population – with lower levels of educational attainment


The new economy

Dynamic Markets

Global Competition

Networked Organizations

Flexible Production

Intellectual Property and Knowledge

Digitization – Broadband…

Broad and Changing Skill Sets

Entrepreneurial

Collaborative Relations

“The New Economy”


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Missouri Declined

- 28th in 2002

- 35th in 2007

Is Mid-Missouri part

of the New Economy?


How f l a t the world is depends on where your standing

The World is Flat – “new oil wells”

-- Thomas Friedman

Making Globalization Work

-- Joseph Stiglitz

Networking Diverse Assets, especially human capital…”collaboration” is hard

How f l a t the world is depends on where your standing..


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Camden

Boone

Morgan

Miller

Callaway

Cooper

Osage

Randolph

Cole

Moniteau

Audrain

Howard


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Enrollment ChangeFrom 1.4% to 2.8% in 5 years


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

SOURCE: Census Bureau/NCHS. Projection algorithm, programming by OSEDA

Chart Prepared by: University of Missouri Extension, Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis

24March2006


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Camden

Boone

Morgan

Miller

Callaway

Cooper

Osage

Randolph

Cole

Moniteau

Audrain

Howard


Population change 2000 2006 in mid missouri

Population Change 2000-2006In Mid-Missouri


Regional population change 2000 2006 counties higher than the state rate

Regional Population Change 2000-2006Counties Higher than the State Rate


Regional population change 2000 2006 counties lower than the state rate

Regional Population Change 2000-2006Counties Lower than the State Rate


Components of change

Components of Change


Components of change1

Components of Change


2006 population place estimates

2006 Population Place Estimates

Source: U.S. Census


2006 population estimates

2006 Population Estimates

Source: U.S. Census


2006 population estimates1

2006 Population Estimates

Source: U.S. Census


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Regional Economic Share

2007 Missouri Economic Report

St. Louis

County 21%

Jackson

County 11%

Upper South

Central 3.6%

Central 6.5%


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Upper South Central

Central

Source: MERIC


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

New Businesses

per 1,000 Population, 2006

Source: MERIC


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Retail Share 2005

Source: MERIC, MO Dept. of Revenue, U.S. BEA and U.S. Census Bureau


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Missouri

Projected Employment Growth by Sector 2004-2014

Source: MERIC


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

DED Target Industries

  • Financial Services

  • Life Sciences

  • Automotive

  • Defense/Homeland Security

  • Information Technology

  • Agribusiness

  • Energy

  • Transportation/Logistics


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

DED Target Industries

What’s in store for

Mid-Missouri?


Population change 2000 2006 in mid missouri1

Population Change 2000-2006In Mid-Missouri

Mid-Missouri’s most valuable resources for development is its human capital


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Google MERIC

For additional information …..


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Google OSEDA

For additional information …..


Regional demographics mid missouri economic summit capitol plaza hotel jefferson city mo

Regional Demographics

Mid-Missouri Economic Summit

Questions?

Bill Elder, Director

Office of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA)

University of Missouri—Columbia

Http://www.oseda.missouri.edu


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