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Using locational marginal prices to estimate real-time emissions from electricity use. IEEE Alternate Energy Presentation May 3, 2012 URS Corp., Southfield, MI Michelle Rogers & Ian Hutt. Team Background. Michelle Rogers

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Ieee alternate energy presentation may 3 2012 urs corp southfield mi michelle rogers ian hutt

  • Using locational marginal prices to estimate real-time emissions from electricity use

IEEE Alternate Energy Presentation

May 3, 2012

URS Corp., Southfield, MI

Michelle Rogers & Ian Hutt


Team background

Team Background

  • Michelle Rogers

    • Master’s student at Wayne State studying Civil & Environmental Engineering

    • B.S. Chemical Engineering from Michigan State

  • Ian Hutt

    • Electric Engineer at Commonwealth Associates, Inc

    • Expertise in electrical power systems & power marketing


Team background1

Team Background

  • Other Team Members:

    • Wayne State: Dr. Carol Miller, Dr. Caisheng Wang, Dr. McElmurry, Tim Carter

    • Commonwealth Associates: Stephen Miller

    • TYJT: AwniQaqish, Steve Jin, Carrie Smalley


Outline

Outline

  • Introduction to the project

  • How project was started

    • Purposes of development

  • How it works

    • LMP

    • Marginal Generating Unit

    • Emissions

  • Application for water distribution systems

  • Wider applications: household electricity use

    • HERO smartphone App


Introduction

Introduction

  • Algorithm estimates real-time emissions based on locational marginal price (LMP)

  • Started as a project for sustainable water delivery

  • Also has wider implications / uses


Why was this project started

Why was this project started?

  • GLPF, Great Lakes Protection Fund grant

    • Grant title: “Real-Time System Optimization for Sustainable Water Transmission and Distribution”

    • Purpose: minimize environmental impacts to the Great Lakes

    • Optimize energy use in water system distribution (pumping)


Why was this project started1

Why was this project started?

  • GLPF, Great Lakes Protection Fund grant

  • Became clear that emissions, not just energy use, was the key in minimizing environmental impact

  • Not all energy use is equal (from emissions standpoint)

    • Emissions vary with type of generation fuel

    • Depends on time and location


Applications

Applications

  • Not all energy use is equal (from emissions standpoint)

    • Any power user that has ability to vary timing of energy use could save emissions

    • Timing does not affect economics, but could still affect emissions

    • Industrial or commercial users that have storage capacity (like compressed air or pumps)


Methodology

Methodology

  • Use LMP to predict the marginal fuel type

  • Calculate emissions associated with that fuel type for a specific area


Locational marginal prices

Locational Marginal Prices

  • LMPs available from MISO

    • (Midwest Independent System Operator)

  • LMPs for select Commercial Pricing Nodes (CPNs) available every 5 minutes


Ieee alternate energy presentation may 3 2012 urs corp southfield mi michelle rogers ian hutt

Locational Marginal Prices

  • LMPs based on marginal cost of supplying the next increment of electric demand at a specific location

  • LMP Accounts for:

    • generation marginal cost (fuel cost)

    • physical aspects of transmission system (constraint in transmission lines)

    • Cost of marginal power losses


Locational marginal prices1

Locational Marginal Prices


Locational marginal prices2

Locational Marginal Prices


Locational marginal prices3

Locational Marginal Prices

  • Key Assumptions:

  • Any change in electricity use is small enough to not affect generation mix

  • LMP cost takes into account electrical transmission constraint

  • Model predicts the marginal unit type


Locational marginal prices4

Locational Marginal Prices

  • LMP Accounts for:

    • physical aspects of transmission system (constraint in transmission lines)

    • Within a small focus area, can assume constraint in the physical transmission system = ~ zero

    • Cost of marginal power losses

    • Assume marginal power losses = ~ zero

    • Generation marginal cost (fuel cost)

    • Left with LMP = ~ fuel cost


Ieee alternate energy presentation may 3 2012 urs corp southfield mi michelle rogers ian hutt

Locational Marginal Prices

  • LMP = ~ fuel cost

Price ($/MWh)

LMP at time ti

Hydro & Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Oil


Fuel prices

Fuel Prices

  • LMP = ~fuel cost

  • Find fuel price data (EIA – public sources)

    • Heat Rate (efficiency) of each plant:

    • Weighted average of monthly fuel price calculated from plant fuel purchases

    • Cost of electric generation computed:


Fuel prices1

Fuel Prices

  • Get price ranges for Fuel types

    • For Example: DTE Power plants in SE Michigan

  • LMP  Marginal Generator Type  Air Emissions


Emission rates

Emission Rates

  • LMP  Marginal Generator Type  Air Emissions

  • Measured Air Emissions Data from EPA’s eGRID

    • (Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database)

    • Data on thousands of power plants in the US

  • Sort by EGCL code (Electric Generating Company, Location-Based)

    • i.e., all of DTE-operated plants in SE Michigan


Emission rates1

Emission Rates

  • Calculate average emission rate for entire area for each fuel type

  • Example, Detroit Edison: (2008 data)

  • LMP  Marginal Generator Type  Air Emissions


Application for water distribution systems

Application for water distribution systems

  • GLPF Grant: “Real-Time System Optimization for Sustainable Water Transmission and Distribution”

  • Emissions estimation algorithm used in optimization program for pumping stations.

  • Two pilot water systems:


Hydraulic model

Hydraulic Model

  • Use EPANet hydraulic models

  • Input:

    • Pipe length

    • Pipe diameter

    • Demand at each node

    • Diurnal demand pattern

    • Pump power

    • Pump efficiency curves

    • Elevation

    • Tanks and reservoirs


Hydraulic model1

Hydraulic Model

  • City of Monroe


Hydraulic model2

Hydraulic Model

  • DWSD


Sustainable water transmission

Sustainable Water Transmission

  • Need to combine:

  • Hydraulic Model + Emissions Estimation Model

  • PEPSO: Pollutant Emissions Pump Station Optimization

  •  Uses hydraulic model to output optimized pumping schedule

    • Optimization based on:

      • Emissions

      • Energy Cost

      • Pressure constraints in system


Pepso input load hydraulic model

PEPSO Input: Load Hydraulic Model


Pepso input load pressure monitoring nodes

PEPSO Input: Load Pressure Monitoring Nodes


Pepso input select commercial pricing nodes cpns

PEPSO Input: Select Commercial Pricing Nodes (CPNs)


Pepso input select pollutants of interest

PEPSO Input: Select Pollutants of Interest


Pepso output

PEPSO Output

  • Energy use per hour for each pump station.

  • Pounds of pollutant emissions per hour for optimized operation of each pump station.

  • Pressure violations, if any.


Pepso output1

PEPSO Output


Sustainable water transmission1

Sustainable Water Transmission

  • PEPSO will be used to evaluate many scenarios

    • High/low demand

    • Different pollutants

    • Availability of raised storage

    • Optimization based on cost vs. emissions

  • Use as a tool to make policy and operational recommendations


Reaching a broader audience the hero app

Reaching a broader audience: the HERO app

  • HERO = Home Emissions Read-Out

  • (LMP  Marginal Generator Type  Air Emissions)

  • Applying this concept to household energy use

  • App for smart phones


Ieee alternate energy presentation may 3 2012 urs corp southfield mi michelle rogers ian hutt

HERO

  • Uses location to determine marginal emissions in real-time

  • Knowledge of current emissions empowers consumers to reduce emissions just by changing the timing of electricity use


Hero input

HERO Input

  • HERO can automatically find nearest CPN based on phone’s GPS

  • User also has choice to pick location from map


Hero output

HERO Output

  • Current, Past, and Projected Future emissions

  • CO2, NOX, SOX, Mercury, Lead


Hero output1

HERO Output

  • User can view more to see background information on CO2, NOX, SOX, Mercury, Lead

  • Environmental Effects, Human Health Effects

  • Example: NOX & SOX


Hero status

HERO Status

  • Still under development

  • Preliminary version should be finished in Fall

  • After small test audience makes recommendations, fix all bugs, then beta version release in Google Play App Store


Questions

Questions?


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