Vivien Foster & Cecilia Brice ñ o-Garmendia , World Bank

1. Vivien Foster & Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia, World Bank

2. Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic: a multi-stakeholder effort

3. Key Message #1 Spending needs are US$18.2 billion a year

4. Think connectivity • Regional connectivity – a network that connects all national capitals and large cities (>250K) to deep water ports and land borders • National connectivity – a network that connects all provincial capitals and medium cities (>25K) to the national capital • Rural connectivity – a network that connects land accounting for 80 percent of current agricultural production value • Urban connectivity – a network that puts all urban inhabitants within 500 meters of a paved road capable of supporting motorized public transport

5. Some sensible targets for catching-up

6. Some sensible targets for catching-up

7. Overall price tag of US$18.2 billion: half for investment, half for maintenance

8. 21 countries (many fragile) would need to spend more than 3 percent of GDP

9. Key Message #2 Existing spending at US$16.2 billion a year much higher than previously thought

10. Spending of US$16.2bn with a capital bias, three quarters domestically financed

11. Most countries are already spending between 1.5 and 3 percent of GDP

12. LICs remain heavily dependent on donors for investment finance

13. Key Message #3 There is a large efficiency gap worth US$3.7 billion a year, but a relatively small funding gap

14. What do we mean by an efficiency gap? • Lack of maintenance creates rehabilitation backlog • 25% of main roads • 40 % of rural roads • Low public sector budget execution ratios (79%) lead to unspent resources • Fuel levies set too low relative to cost of road maintenance • Budget allocations lead to apparent over-spending in some areas

15. Half fail to cover maintenance (and onequarter fail to cover routine maintenance)

16. Only a handful of countries have fuel levies at cost recovery level, for others it is unattainable

17. Institutions impact on quality of main trunk network (with weaker effect for rural roads) Percentage of main road network in good or fair condition

18. The efficiency gap is US$3.6bn a year: only fragile states face major funding gap

19. A number of countries have an efficiency gap in excess of 1 percent of GDP

20. Key Message #4 For those countries, the only way to close the circle is by rethinking the targets

21. Taking more time • For fragile states the 10 year time horizon is not realistic • If inefficiencies could be fully captured, targets could be met with existing spending levels within 31 years for low income fragile states • Without capturing efficiency gains, it would take much longer to reach targets • 50 years for low income fragile states • 22 years for resource rich countries • 14 years for LIC non-fragile

22. How much longer will it take to meet targets with a flat budget if inefficiencies are seized?

23. How much longer will it take to meet targets with a flat budget if inefficiencies are NOT seized?

24. Adopting lower standards can reduce costs of meeting connectivity targets by 40%

25. Key Message #5 Rural road investment strategies need to be more closely aligned with agricultural sector

26. Network would need to triple in length to meet 100% RAI costing US$10bn pa

27. Focus on connecting high value agricultural land makes rural challenge more managable 80% existing agricultural production 80% potential agricultural production

28. Emerging evidence of a virtuous circle linking urban and rural development DEEP RURAL AREAS represent 15% population and 14% of crop production RURAL HINTERLANDrepresent 50% population and 85% crop production 6 hour travel time URBAN CENTER 25% population

29. Key Message #6 Services rather than infrastructure may be the binding constraint

30. High road freight costs driven by high profit margins resulting from market concentration

31. Key Message #7 Urban mobility compromised by inadequate transport services

32. Self-regulated minibus services step into the vacuum caused by demise of large buses • African cities are under-endowed with bus seats and paved roads to run them • Low mobility of urban population due to high bus fares and limited two wheelers • Disappearance of large buses leads to upsurge of informal minibuses • Lack of regulation of minibuses or of integrated metropolitan transport authority, contributes to lower quality of service for passengers

33. Walking is dominant urban transport mode followed by minibuses • With bus fares around US$0.25 per trip most households can barely afford to pay bus fares for a single commuter

34. Key Message #8 In rail, stiff inter-modal competition has eroded viability

35. Concessions help improve performance, but do not solve investment finance problem • About half of SSA’s rail corridors under concession and rising • Concessions impact performance but don’t yield much in the way of investment finance, due to • Low traffic (<500 TU/km in general) • Inter-modal competition • Public Service Obligations • Need to find more realistic models for private sector participation • Prospects for viability of transversal rail links do not look good

36. Rail concessions perform relatively well, but still leave room for improvement

37. Key Message #9 In ports, need to rationalize and improve efficiency

38. Challenge of adapting to modern shipping patterns, but promising developments • Traffic volumes growing at 7% pa • Container highly imbalanced • General cargo continues to play dominant role • But most ports still too small to attract direct calls, need for stronger hub and spoke structure • Containerization skin deep due to weak backward infrastructure links to hinterland • Very limited adoption of landlord model, but good progress with container terminal concessions • Performance short of international standards, many ports continue to rely on ships gear

39. Services provided by ports remain costly and inefficient by international standards

40. Key Message #10 In air transport, infrastructure is not the binding constraint

41. Need to further rationalize market structure and strengthen regulatory oversight • Continental divide with concentration of traffic, hubs, carriers on eastern side • Implementation of Yamassoukro Decision more advanced on western side • Ailing flag carriers and declining connectivity in smaller markets, need to pursue hub approach • Infrastructure is not a major problem, except for air traffic control equipment • Safety remains a huge concern, but more about pilots than about fleets

42. Uneven development of continental air transport networks clearly evident

43. Some cross-cutting conclusions

44. Certain themes recur across modes • Funding gap modest after efficiency gains • Under-maintenance is an endemic false economy • Considerable scope for cost recovery • Low traffic limits viability of transport infrastructure • Limited need for new transport infrastructure • Importance of developing hub-and-spoke structure • Software at least as important as hardware • Services at least as important as infrastructure • Safety is a pervasive (and often human) problem

45. Overview of Data Tools

46. More than just another study: www.infrastructureafrica.org web portal • Library of background documents, including data collection manuals • Transport Spending Needs Model, interactive web-based version • On-line data bases, including input and outputs to RONET II model • Results tables, allowing customized presentation of main findings • Interactive infrastructure atlases allowing creation of customized maps

47. Interactive GIS atlas: e.g. rail traffic, ports and airports

48. Interactive GIS atlas: e.g. road traffic against agricultural potential

49. Interactive GIS atlas: e.g. transport network against ICT network