Weather Forecast and Applications: Challenge, Value and Communication:

1. Weather Forecast and Applications: Challenge, Value and Communication: Aida Diongue-Niang Senegal Meteorological Agency

2. Weather Forecasting: Forcaster’s tasks observations Model analyses Analysis of the current meteorological situation Ensemble prediction Systems, single or multi-model one or more Deterministic Models outputs: poor’s man ensemble Examination of the Future Evolution of the atmosphere and choice of the most likely scenario Experience Description of the evolution of the atmosphere and the expected weather Monitoring and Updating USERS DECISION MAKERS Decision on issuing warning in case of severe weather Distribution of products to end-users Verification

3. Question: How to ensure effective use of weather/climate information in decision making ?

4. New paradigm:End-to-end forecasting Users and decision makers

5. Users • Traditional • Aviation: however end-to-end process • Marine activities • Agriculture /Water resources • Mainly short range to complement seasonal forecast for daily activities and water resources management • High demand for Medium range to Intraseasonal • Emerging • Health : air quality, water-borne disease, malaria, meningitis? • Energy • Growing • Vulnerable Community , environment • flooding, dust, high wind, heat waves, marine hazards, etc

6. NatCatSERVICE Natural catastrophes in Africa 1980 – 2009 Number of events Number Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) MunichRE

7. NatCatSERVICE Weather catastrophes in Africa 1980 – 2009 Percentage distribution 1,500 Loss events 295,000 Fatalities Overall losses* US$ 18.7bn Insuredlosses* US$ 1.8bn Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement) Climatological events(Extreme temperature,drought, forest fire) Meteorological events (Storm) *in 2009 values *in 2009 values • Small Percentage of losses insured: high vulnerability of affected people

8. High-impact weather effects • Significant losses due to high-impact weather (and climate extremes) • Increase of extremes (IPCC, AR4, 2007). • Increase of negative effects related to high-impact weather and climate extremes: Demographic pressure, high urbanization, marginal settlement, economic competitiveness (e.g. energy, hydroelectric dams, etc), ecosystems change • The use of weather forecasts and a good level of preparedness can help to reduce the adverse effects

9. Risk assessment Community Involvement Response capacity

10. Actions required (THORPEX-Africa Science Plan) • i) Design: The user should be involved in the design of the products to make sure it’s tailored to his needs. • ii) Content: the users should be able to find the forecast information related to and relevant for his particular activity. • iii) Dissemination: the users must receive the information on time to make decisions. • iv) Communication: the format of forecast products have to be tailored to the users leading to easier and quicker understanding and interpretation. • v) Recognition: The products should be made in a way that users recognize as high value input in their decisions. • vi) Response: Evidence that users adapt their activity to the given information should be documented. Decision schemes will thus be developed. • vii) Evaluation: The user should be able to evaluate the products based on his own rationale and need, which is a feedback into the forecast system. • Different type of users, different interest, different capacity • Need to workout wich each type of users • Challenging for NMSs in term of resources, organization, involvemement

11. Thanks for your attention