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SOCIAAL KAPITAAL EN WELVAART. Prof. Em. Wim Moesen Centrum voor Economische Studiën Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Seniorenuniversiteit UHasselt 21 september 2009. INHOUD. SOCIAAL KAPITAAL EN ECONOMISCHE WELVAART Transmissiemechanisme METEN EN VALIDEREN Empirische bevindingen

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Sociaal kapitaal en welvaart

SOCIAAL KAPITAAL EN WELVAART

Prof. Em. Wim Moesen

Centrum voor Economische Studiën

Katholieke Universiteit Leuven

Seniorenuniversiteit UHasselt

21 september 2009


Inhoud
INHOUD

  • SOCIAAL KAPITAAL EN ECONOMISCHE WELVAART

    • Transmissiemechanisme

  • METEN EN VALIDEREN

    • Empirische bevindingen

  • STERKTEN- ZWAKTENANALYSE

    • Beleidsconclusies


SOCIAAL KAPITAAL

FORMELE INSTELLINGEN

(wetten, regels, organisaties…)

INFORMELE INSTELLINGEN

(normen, conventies, taboes…)

CULTURELE WAARDEN


WELVAART

ECONOMISCHE PERFORMANTIE

VERTROUWEN

SOCIAAL KAPITAAL


Transmissiemechanisme
TRANSMISSIEMECHANISME?

  • Vermindert transactiekosten

  • Verhoogt productiviteit

Macro-economische

performanties

Vertrouwen


Francis FUKAYAMA (1995)

“Trust: the social virtues and economic prosperity”

BENADERING VAN DE TRANSACTIEKOSTEN

  • Douglas NORTH (1993)

  • Oliver WILLIAMSON (1975, 1979, 1985)



Maatschappelijk kapitaal en vertrouwen
MAATSCHAPPELIJK KAPITAAL EN VERTROUWEN

Maatschappelijk kapitaal

= cultuur van de maatschappij

Met - formele beperkingen

grondwet, wetten,…

- informele beperkingen

morele waarden, attitudes,…

Beïnvloedt vertrouwen in de maatschappij

Vertrouwen in de publieke sector

Beïnvloedt economische performantie


Meten en valideren
METEN EN VALIDEREN

  • DATA ECONOMISCHE PERFORMANTIE

  • DATA CULTURELE WAARDEN

  • BEVINDINGEN


De constructie van een composiet index voor de meting van performantie
DE CONSTRUCTIE VAN EEN COMPOSIET-INDEX VOOR DE METING VAN PERFORMANTIE

  • SCOPE: WELKE INDICATOREN?

  • NORMALISERING: HOE HERSCHALEN?

  • AGGREGATIE: WELKE WEGING?


Synthetische indicator van macro economsiche performantie
SYNTHETISCHE INDICATOR VAN MACRO-ECONOMSICHE PERFORMANTIE PERFORMANTIE

TINBERGEN

REELE GROEI

LOPENDE REKENING

BETALINGSBALANS

WERKLOOSHEID

INFLATIE


Vertrouwen in publieke sector economische performantie
VERTROUWEN IN PUBLIEKE SECTOR & ECONOMISCHE PERFORMANTIE PERFORMANTIE

Meetinstrumenten: economische performantie

Groei BBP

Inflatie

4 factoren

Wekloosheidsgraad

Saldo op lopende rekening

Simep

Limep

2 maatstaven

Ongewogen

Gewogen

Met saldo

Lopende rekening

Simep 4 / Limep 4

2 families

zonder saldo

Lopende rekening

Simep 3 / Limep 3


Data culturele waarden
DATA CULTURELE WAARDEN PERFORMANTIE

  • Twee indicatoren:

  • Vertrouwen in publieke sector: synthetische maatstaf

    • Favoritisme

    • Onafhankelijkheid rechterlijke macht

  • 5 ingrediënten Corruptie

  • Regeringsverbintenissen

    • Vertrouwen in eerlijkheid van politici

  • (2) Werkethiek (arbeidsmotivatie, loyauteit,…)



  • Empirics graphical
    EMPIRICS: GRAPHICAL PERFORMANTIE



    Global Competitiveness Report 2008-2009 PERFORMANTIE

    What is competitiveness?

    The World Competitiveness Report definescompetitiveness as the set of institutions,policies, and factors that determine thelevel of productivity of a country


    Global Competitiveness Report 2008-2009 PERFORMANTIE

    Problems when constructing aComposite Indicator

    • Problem of scope

    • 2. Problem of normalisation

    • 3. Problem fo weighting


    The index is composed of 12 pillars measuring PERFORMANTIEdifferent aspects of an economy’s competitiveness

    • Basic Requirements

  • I. Institutions

  • II. Infrastructure

  • III. Macroeconomic stability

  • IV. Health and primary education

    • Efficiency Enhancers

  • V. Higher education and training

  • VI. Goods market efficiency

  • VII. Labor market efficiency

  • VIII. Financial market sophistication

  • IX. Technological readiness

  • X. Market size

    • Innovation and sophistication factors

  • XI. Business sophistication

  • XII. Innovation

    • Key for

    • factor-driven

    • economies

    • Key for

    • efficiency-driven

    • economies

    • Key for

    • innovation-driven

    • economies


    Survey methodology PERFORMANTIE

    • The hard data indicators used in the GCI arenormalized on a 1- to 7- scale

    • Official public sources are often insufficient forpainting an accurate picture of a country’s businessoperating environment.

    • -> Executive opinion survey: Soft Data


    Executive Opinion Survey PERFORMANTIE

    • Survey conducted by Partner Institutes- Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School exclusively for Belgium

    • Overall, 12.297 business leaders were questioned in a 134 national economies

    • Average of 90 responses per country- Belgium received 109 responses!

    • - Random selection based on sector share in national GDP


    Belgium’s Competitiveness Rank: 2001-2008 PERFORMANTIEGrowth Competitiveness Index (Old series)

    Global Competitiveness Index (New series)



    Important changes 2008-2009 vs. 2007-2008 PERFORMANTIE

    • No changes in top 4, Singapore enters top 5

    • France, the UK and the Netherlands were already better ranked than Belgium and are characterized by major improvements. Germany stays ahead of Belgium.

    • Improvements in China whereas India fell to the 50th place


    Pillar Rankings higher than our 19th position PERFORMANTIEWhich pillars pushed us forward?


    Pillar Rankings lower than our 19th position PERFORMANTIEWhich pillars pulled us backward?






    The most problematic Factors PERFORMANTIEfor doing business in Belgium

    • Restrictive labour regulations (19,2 % of responses)

    • Tax rates (17,3% of responses)

    • Inefficient government bureaucracy (12,2% of responses)

    • Tax regulations (11,1% of responses)

    • Inadequately educated workforce (9,8% of responses)


    Vertrouwen in belgische overheidsinstellingen
    VERTROUWEN IN BELGISCHE OVERHEIDSINSTELLINGEN PERFORMANTIE

    Gezondheidszorg 82,6

    Onderwijs 77,9

    Sociale zekerheid 69,4

    Politie 55,4

    Overheidsadministratie 46,1

    Parlement 39,1

    Justitie 36,4

    (Bron: European Values Study, 2000)


    Vertrouwen in instellingen 2002
    VERTROUWEN IN INSTELLINGEN (2002) PERFORMANTIE

    Onderwijs 79,1%

    Gemeentelijke administratie 52,5%

    Vlaamse Administratie 40,4%

    Gerecht 30,1%

    (Bron: Instituut voor de Overheid, Werken aan de Overheid)


    Trust in institutions
    TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS PERFORMANTIE

    Eurobarometer 2003


    One of the most problematic factors for doing business PERFORMANTIE

    in Belgium

    Inefficient government bureaucracy

    Trust in Belgian institutions


    Government effectiveness PERFORMANTIE

    Data on Government Effectiveness

    → borrowed from World Bank:

    Kaufmann et al., ‘Governance Matters’, (edition 2007)

    - Survey data for 212 countries

    - Composite indicator


    Global PERFORMANTIEcompetitiveness versus government effectiveness



    Global Competitiveness Index PERFORMANTIE

    versus budget size

    .






    Output of countries

    D

    FDH best practice frontier

    H

    F

    B

    G

    A

    C

    xo, yo

    E

    Input

    Non-parametric approach


    Non-parametric approach of countries

    Budget size corrected for:

    - Small open economy (Dani Rodrick, 1998)

    - Small family size


    The quality of government of countries

    The quality of government is related to (correlation coefficient)

    - The strictness of the budgetary procedures 0.66

    (12 EU-countries)

    - The trust in other people 0.62

    (23 OECD-countries)

    - The trust of foreigners 0.89

    (19 EU-countries)


    Contents of happiness
    CONTENTS OF HAPPINESS of countries

    Subjective well-being

    + personality characteristics

    + socio-demographic factors

    Human well-being

    + health

    + education

    Economic welfare

    + employment

    + inflation

    GDP

    Regrettables


    Life satisfaction 1999 2000 ruud veenhoven tilburg university
    LIFE SATISFACTION (1999-2000) of countriesRUUD VEENHOVEN, TILBURG UNIVERSITY

    CORRELATIONS WITH

    Control of corruption .85

    Rule of law .85

    Government effectiveness (World Bank) .83

    Political voice and accountability .78

    Membership voluntary organisations .63

    Health expenditures per capita .60

    Trust in official institutions .55

    Trust in people .54


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