Gms power grid who gains who loses
Download
1 / 39

GMS Power Grid Who gains, who loses - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 58 Views
  • Uploaded on

GMS Power Grid Who gains, who loses?. Chuenchom Sangarasri Greacen 17 July 2005 Piyawan Resort. MOU Implementation of GMS Power Trade Operation Agreement- Stage 1. Leaders from 6 countries met GMS Summit in Kunming, China 4-5 July 2005. MOU

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'GMS Power Grid Who gains, who loses' - imelda


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Gms power grid who gains who loses

GMS Power GridWho gains, who loses?

Chuenchom Sangarasri Greacen

17 July 2005

Piyawan Resort


Leaders from 6 countries met gms summit in kunming china 4 5 july 2005

MOU

Implementation of GMS Power Trade Operation Agreement- Stage 1

Leaders from 6 countries met GMS Summit in Kunming, China4-5 July 2005


What is

MOU

Implementation of GMS Power Trade Ageement – stage I

What is ?

  • Purpose

    “To set an implementation framework for bilateral power trade between countries with transmission links in accordance with the draft GMS Power Trade Operation Agreement – stage I”

  • For Thailand, EGAT is the designated entity responsible for plan implementation


Asian development bank adb

Norconsult June 2002

Asian Development Bank (ADB)


Indicative master plan on power interconnection in the gms
Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in the GMS

  • Benefits :

    • Exchange energy e.g. during different peak periods

    • Reduce shared reserve margin

    • Maximize efficient utilization of resources in the GMS


Reality of gms power grid expensive risky investment
Reality of GMS Power Grid:expensive, risky investment

  • Costs excluded in analysis:

    • Control center

    • Water usage

    • Regulator & reliability coordination

    • Transitional costs

  • Increased vulnerability: events in Laos/Cambodia determine reliability of Thai Grid

*Cost savings of extended power cooperation scenarios over base case

Source: Comments on Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in GMS Countries by Bretton W. Garrett, P.Eng., Ph.D.


Regional power trade operating agreement in the greater mekong sub region gms rptoa

Regional

Institutions

Regional

Planning

PPA and

Regional

dispatch

Transmission

Tariffs

Performance

Standards

Regional Power Trade Operating Agreement in the Greater Mekong Sub – Region: GMS RPTOA


Goals for stage 1
Goals for Stage # 1

  • PTOA: Bilateral Power Transactions;

  • Tariffs for cross-border transmission facilities;

  • Regional and Operational transmission planning;

  • Putting in place regional institutions: Regional Regulatory Board, Planning Working Groups, Management Committee

  • Recommended:

    • Agree and apply rules for Long-term PPA

    • Arrangements for facilitating building of cross-border transmission facilities.


Stage 2 4
Stage 2-4

  • Stage 2: power trade among more than 2 countries

  • Stage 3: All GMS countries are connected by HV transmission links and independent power producers can sell electricity

  • Stage 4: Complete competitive power trade in Regional Power Pool


Analyses of dr brettron garrett

Analyses of Dr. Brettron Garrett

Transmission expert from BC, Canada

http://www.palangthai.org/en/policy


1. “The most serious concern is the wisdom of committing to an expensive, long-term electricity trade arrangement without certainty of the economic benefits”


Adb s assumptions on benefits of the gms grid
ADB’s assumptions on benefits of the GMS grid to an expensive, long-term electricity trade arrangement without certainty of the economic benefits”

  • Peak sharing can reduce costs, need for reserve margin

  • Lots of cheap hydropower will be built in Laos, Burma and Yunnan, and can displace electricity generation from gas and coal.

  • Competition among different dam projects in the region will drive cost down so consumers will enjoy low, competitive price


Assumption 1 peak sharing

Opportunity for peak reduction to an expensive, long-term electricity trade arrangement without certainty of the economic benefits”

Assumption 1. peak sharing


Assumption 2
Assumption to an expensive, long-term electricity trade arrangement without certainty of the economic benefits” 2

  • Hydropower is cheap

  • Hydropower is plentiful

  • Cheap power from dams will displace power generation from gas and coal plants


Assumption 3 gms grid competitive trade will drive the price down
Assumption to an expensive, long-term electricity trade arrangement without certainty of the economic benefits” 3. GMS grid+competitive trade will drive the price down


Fact 1 peak sharing can reduce peak by only 2 5

Reduce Peak by only to an expensive, long-term electricity trade arrangement without certainty of the economic benefits”2.5%

Fact 1. peak sharing can reduce peak by only 2.5%


Fact 2 cheap hydropower is only an assumption not findings from studies
Fact to an expensive, long-term electricity trade arrangement without certainty of the economic benefits” 2.”Cheap hydropower” is only an assumption, not findings from studies


Fact to an expensive, long-term electricity trade arrangement without certainty of the economic benefits” 3.No competition

  • Stage 4 is difficult/impossible to reach and there is no set timeline for it to happen

  • With no competition, there is opportunity for price gouging as seen in California


Conclusion extremely risky investment
Conclusion: Extremely risky investment to an expensive, long-term electricity trade arrangement without certainty of the economic benefits”

  • Total investment200,000 million baht (incld. Building dams)

  • May result in benefits worth 90,000 million baht but highly uncertain

  • What is certain is consumers in the GMS have to pay 48,000 billion Baht


2 regulatory body
2 to an expensive, long-term electricity trade arrangement without certainty of the economic benefits”. Regulatory body

  • Balance interests of investors against consumers

  • RPTOAsuggests against having a highly independent regulatory

  • No public participation

  • No consideration of other greener, cheaper alternatives


3 extremely difficult and expensive to harmonize grid standards across the region
3. Extremely difficult and expensive to harmonize grid standards across the region

  • Split-second decisions by operators in one country can affect the whole region

  • The Canadian economy lost 16,000 million Baht in August 2003 when a negligent USA utility caused a massive blackout.



Who gains who loses
Who gains, who loses? situation

  • GMS consumers are sure to foot the bill of 48,000 million baht to build the grid

  • Economic benefits are highly uncertain and unlikely

  • High risks: technical, environmental & social, political

  • Benefits from dam construction go to multinational corporations, investors, contractors



Win win trade
Win-win trade? situation


Without gms grid thailand s energy security would be at risk

บันทึกความเข้าใจ situation

แนวทางการดำเนินงานตามข้อตกลง

ด้านการปฏิบัติการเพื่อการซื้อขายไฟฟ้าระหว่างประเทศในกลุ่มอนุภูมิภาคลุ่มแม่น้ำโขง ระยะที่ 1

Without GMS Grid, Thailand’s energy security would be at risk?


Adb peak demand in 2020
ADB: situation Peak demand in2020

Source: Norconsult, Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in GMS Countries, June 2002



Thailand s current demand forecast jan04 annual increases mw
Thailand’s current demand forecast (Jan04) situation Annual increases (MW)


ที่มา: กรมพัฒนาพลังงานทดแทนและอนุรักษ์พลังงาน


Biogas from pig farms

Reduces air and water pollution กรมพัฒนาพลังงานทดแทนและอนุรักษ์พลังงาน

Produces fertilizer

Produces electricity

Biogas from pig farms


Village scale microhydro
Village-scale microhydro กรมพัฒนาพลังงานทดแทนและอนุรักษ์พลังงาน

  • Mae Kam Pong village, Chiang Mai

  • 40 kW

  • Community cooperative

  • Expected gross revenues: 30,000 baht/month


2000 mw
2000 กรมพัฒนาพลังงานทดแทนและอนุรักษ์พลังงานMW = ?

  • เขื่อนภูมิพล 780 MW

  • เขื่อนปากมูล 136 MW

  • แม่เมาะ 2400 MW

  • จะนะ 700 MW


ad