July 5-9, 2009, Univ. of Bologna, Italy
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July 5-9, 2009, Univ. of Bologna, Italy HARP - A Software Tool for Fast Assessment of Radiation PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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July 5-9, 2009, Univ. of Bologna, Italy HARP - A Software Tool for Fast Assessment of Radiation Accident Consequences and their Variability Petr Pecha and Radek Hofman [email protected]

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July 5-9, 2009, Univ. of Bologna, Italy HARP - A Software Tool for Fast Assessment of Radiation

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July 5 9 2009 univ of bologna italy harp a software tool for fast assessment of radiation

July 5-9, 2009, Univ. of Bologna, Italy

HARP - A Software Tool for Fast Assessment of Radiation

Accident Consequences and their Variability

Petr Pecha and Radek Hofman

[email protected]

Institute of Information Theory and Automation v.v.i., Czech Academy of Sciences, 182 08 Prague, Pod vodarenskou vezi 4, Czech Republic


July 5 9 2009 univ of bologna italy harp a software tool for fast assessment of radiation

Pollution transport in atmosphere


July 5 9 2009 univ of bologna italy harp a software tool for fast assessment of radiation

  • Main features of the HARP system

  • Designed for fast assessment of radiological consequences of accidental releases of radionuclides into the living environment.

  • Transport of toxic agens is studied from initial atmospheric propagation up to 100 kilometeres from the source of pollution.

  • Deposition and successive radioactivity transport toward human body is modeled.

  • Deterministic estimation of consequences is superseded by probabilistic approach.

  • The product is intended for its utilization e.g. for staff training or students' education.


July 5 9 2009 univ of bologna italy harp a software tool for fast assessment of radiation

THE FINAL GOAL OF DEVELOPMENT

Integration of assimilation subsystem ([5],[4]) for improvement

of model predictions using observations incoming from terrain


July 5 9 2009 univ of bologna italy harp a software tool for fast assessment of radiation

HARPFLOWCHART –

deterministic and probabilistic

components


July 5 9 2009 univ of bologna italy harp a software tool for fast assessment of radiation

INTERACTIVE INPUTS

Interactive regime offers wide range of input data and model parameters alternative options thus enabling fast examination of their variability and uncertainty on random fluctuations of resulting outputs.

INTERACTIVE INPUT SUBSYSTEMS:

1) Atm. dispersion model and release scenario

definitions

2) Ingestion parameters definitions

3) LHS – (Latin Hypercube Sampling) for simulation of

uncertainty propagationthrough the model


July 5 9 2009 univ of bologna italy harp a software tool for fast assessment of radiation

ADM input panel


July 5 9 2009 univ of bologna italy harp a software tool for fast assessment of radiation

Ingestion data


July 5 9 2009 univ of bologna italy harp a software tool for fast assessment of radiation

Example of the HARP applications – „red eye“due to local atmospheric precipitation

Spatial distribution of 137Cs activity deposition on terrain [Bq /m2]. Deterministic „best estimate" (left) is compared with probabilistic calculation of sample mean (right - 5000 samples).

The „red eye“ in deposited activity is caused by local atmospheric precipitation, which occurred between hours 5 to 6 after the release start (random rain intensity has uniform distribution U[0; 6mm / hour] ). Signifiance of probabilistic assessment approach is evident. It enables generate more informative probabilistic answers on assessment questions.


July 5 9 2009 univ of bologna italy harp a software tool for fast assessment of radiation

Example of the HARP applications – significance of discrimination between

local or global character of uncertainty effect

Cross section through the model error covariance matrix for the „red eye“

scenario with local rain

dark: strong positive

covariance

white: negative covariance

(without detail scale)

Covariances of the fixed point in the

centre of rain zone with all other nodes

( only one random input parameter

assumed → rain intensity)


July 5 9 2009 univ of bologna italy harp a software tool for fast assessment of radiation

Example of the HARP applications - 137Cs deposition on terrain : result of long-term

release with duration 3 month (real weather

statistics was used)


July 5 9 2009 univ of bologna italy harp a software tool for fast assessment of radiation

Example of the HARP applications– TWIN experiment for assimilation

(measurements locations in black squares selected artifically)


July 5 9 2009 univ of bologna italy harp a software tool for fast assessment of radiation

Example of the HARP applications– arrangement for TWIN experiment for data

assimilation with real receptors of the Czech Early Warning system (red squares)


July 5 9 2009 univ of bologna italy harp a software tool for fast assessment of radiation

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION


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