Indonesia the world s next economic power
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KOMITE EKONOMI NASIONAL REPUBLIK INDONESIA. Indonesia - The World’s Next Economic Power. Chairul Tanjung Chairman of National Economic Committee (KEN). July 2011. Indonesia Future Outlook Key Economic Drivers. Looking to the long term, Indonesia will become a high income country.

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Indonesia the world s next economic power

KOMITE EKONOMI NASIONAL

REPUBLIK INDONESIA

Indonesia - The World’s Next Economic Power

Chairul Tanjung

Chairman of National Economic Committee (KEN)

July 2011


Indonesia the world s next economic power

  • Indonesia Future Outlook

  • Key Economic Drivers


Looking to the long term indonesia will become a high income country

Looking to the long term, Indonesia will become a high income country

PREPARATION

ACCELERATION

CONTINUATION

Indonesia becomes a high income country with GDP per capita USD 14,250-USD 15,500

GDP Nominal per capita

GDP Nominal (US$ Billion)

711

1,335

2,416

4,257

6,793

9,706

12,989

16,578

Population (Million people)

237

253

269

286

302

319

336

353


Indonesia s economic growth has far surpassed the projections of the indonesia forum foundation

Indonesia’s economic growth has far surpassed the projections of the Indonesia Forum Foundation

Projected GDP per capita - Indonesia Vision 2030

1992

2015

2023

Lower Middle

Income Country

Upper Middle

Income Country

High

Income Country

Economic Projection 2011 - 2045

Indonesia Vision 2030

GDP per capita reached US$3,005in 2010

Source: Indonesia Forum Foundation (Yayasan Indonesia Forum), team analysis


Indonesia the world s next economic power

IMF projects Indonesia to achieve the second fastest growth amongst the world’s 18 largest economies during 2009-2015

GPD Nominal Growth (2009 – 2015)

Russia

Indonesia

China

India

Brazil

South Korea

Turkey

USA

Japan

ASEAN (excl. Indonesia)

Source:International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011


Indonesia s economy will become more dominant in asean and larger than several countries in europe

Indonesia’s economy will become more dominant in ASEAN and larger than several countries in Europe

Indonesia Economic Growth (nominal)

(USD Billion)

CAGR 14.5%

Indonesia’s economy as % of

ASEAN-6

40%

48%

53%

ASEAN (Total 11 Countries)

38%

46%

52%

European Countries:

Spain

50%

60%

91%

91%

105%

165%

Netherlands

Source:International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011; Proyeksi Ekonomi Indonesia 2011 – 2045; Analisa Tim


Indonesia the world s next economic power

  • Indonesia Future Outlook

  • Key Economic Drivers


The increase of the productive population will fuel stable and rapid economic growth

The increase of the productive population will fuel stable and rapid economic growth

Expected Population Pyramid (2000–2020)

Male

Indonesia–2000

Female

Male

Indonesia–2020

Female

Population (in millions)

Population (in millions)

Total (million)

205

254

102

127

Male (million)

102

127

Female (million)

Productive population

(20–55 years old)

99 (48%)

132 (52%)

Source: 2008 UNDP World Population Prospects


Natural resources infrastructure and consumers will also drive economic growth

Natural Resources, Infrastructure and Consumers will also drive economic growth

  • Economic growth, including key emerging markets driving demand

    • Hard commodities, e.g. metals, oil, coal, etc.

    • Soft commodities, e.g. rubber, palm oil, etc.

Natural Resources

Infrastructure

  • Continued development of infrastructure: transportation, energy, communications, water & waste, etc.

  • Consumer

    • Financial Services

    • Automotive

    • Retail

    • Tourism

    • etc.

    • (as well as supporting sectors such as industry and construction)

  • Based on 2010 GDP per capita (US$3,005), Indonesia has reached the critical threshold  rapid growth in consumption, discretionary and luxury spending

Rise of Consumer Spending Power


This economic growth is also supported by conducive national conditions

This economic growth is also supported by conducive national conditions

Political Environment

  • Maturing democracy

  • Regional autonomy

  • Supportive regulations  balanced open markets

  • Strengthening institutions

Increasingly integrated networks

  • Regional – improving efficiency of domestic production and distribution chains

  • Global – geographic position provides excellent access to India, China, Japan, etc.

Resilient Financial System

  • Government debt and foreign reserves at healthy levels

  • Improving investment climate

  • Indonesian banks performed well during global crisis


Indonesia has entered the golden era of economic growth huge opportunities for businesses

Indonesia has entered the Golden Era of economic growth  huge opportunities for businesses

Projection of Indonesia’s GDP Growth in 2025

(USD Billion)

4,257

3,546

711

711

2010

2025

  • Indonesian economy will grow 5-fold through 2025

  • The stable government combined with strong economic growth will provide great opportunities for all businesses

  • Currently China already has 115 people in Fortune's list of World Billionaires, while Indonesia has only 14 people. By 2025, the number of Indonesian billionaires could surpass 115

Source: Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Indonesia


Closing

Closing

  • Indonesia’s is expected to continues its strong performance

  • This robust growth is driven by favorable demographics, strong natural resources and consumer sectors and developing infrastructure, as well as broad based geographic growth

  • Indonesia is moving forward to address challenges in funding, infrastructure, bureaucracy, human resources, and technology

  • Indonesia’s economy is projected to grow 5-fold by 2025, thereby making Indonesia the world’s next economic power


Thank you

Thank You

Chairul Tanjung

Chairman of National Economic Committee (KEN)


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