1 / 5

Conference Call

Conference Call. November 19, 2006. The Economy. Housing markets have not reached a bottom yet New housing starts fell 14.6% in October lowest level since July 2000 Building Permits  leading indicator for housing starts permits fell 6.3% in October  the largest decline in 7 years

illias
Download Presentation

Conference Call

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Conference Call November 19, 2006

  2. The Economy • Housing markets have not reached a bottom yet • New housing starts fell 14.6% in October • lowest level since July 2000 • Building Permitsleading indicator for housing starts • permits fell 6.3% in Octoberthe largest decline in 7 years • Housing starts are down 27.4% YTD • Building permit are down 28% YTD

  3. The Economy • Consumer prices seem to be better recently • CPI declined 0.5% in Octobersecond straight monthly decline • Decline was due to falling prices for gasoline and automobiles • The core CPI rose 0.1% in Octobersmallest increase in 8 months • Core CPI is up 2.7% YTD • Federal Reserve still is not satisfied with numbers • Median CPI, another way to measure CPI without excluding food and energy prices, is up 3.6% YTD • The Federal Reserve believes consumer prices are relatively stable when they rise less than 2% yearly

  4. The Market • The major stock indexes were up for the 2nd week • Decline in energy prices are cause of rally in stock prices • Crude oil has declined 25% since July • How much more can global energy prices fall? • Investors hope the Fed will cut short-term interest rates to stimulate economy

  5. The Markets • Best-performing sectors in Q306 are Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, and Materials • Historically, these sectors have led the stock market after Fed cut interest rates • Stock investors are ahead of Fed in this business cycle • Business cycle model still in Easeoff, but economy may be close to changing to the Plunge phase

More Related