The New Economics of Oil

1. The New Economics of Oil www.bicea.edu.cn

2. Contents • Pre-reading • Appreciate an Episode of A Crude Awakening – The Oil Crash • Global reading • Text Structure • Language Points • Detailed reading • Word Study • Post-reading • Exercises BICEA

3. Pre-reading Task • Let’s enjoy an episode of A Crude Awakening – Oil Crash. • Q1: What is oil referred to as? • Q2: what does the speaker compare our dependence on oil to? • Q3: What situation are we in now? • Q4:What will the consequences be if the oil runs out? BICEA

4. Pre-reading Tasks- An Episode BICEA

5. Oil is the excrement of the devil. • Source: • “Ten years from now, 20 years from now, you will see," former Venezuelan Oil Minister and OPEC co-founder Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo predicted in the 1970s, "oil will bring us ruin." It was an oddball statement at a time when oil was bringing Venezuela unprecedented wealth--the government's 1973 revenues were larger than all previous years combined, raising hopes that black gold would catapult Venezuela straight to First World status. But Perez Alfonzo had a different name for oil: "the devil's excrement." (FORTUNE Magazine) BICEA

6. Today he seems a prophet. • When it hit the jackpot, Venezuela had a functioning democracy and the highest per-capita income on the continent. Now it has a state of near-civil war and a per-capita income lower than its 1960 level. BICEA

7. Q1: What is oil referred to as? • Oil is Black Blunt. • Oil is the blood of Dinosaurs. • Oil is the blood stream of world economy. • Oil is blood of the Earth. BICEA

8. Question 2 • Q2: According to the speaker, what did the speakers say about our dependence on oil? • We are making ourselves dependent on some extremely unstable regimes of some very nice parts of the world. • Keeping the world dependence on oil as long as possible is important. BICEA

9. Question 3 • Q3: What situation are we in now? • We’re moving from an era of cheap, abundant energy to an ear of scarce and hard to get, expensive energy. • We enter into an entirely new world of quite unbelievable dimensions. And that is only a few years away. BICEA

10. Question 4 • Q4:What will the consequences be if the oil runs out? • Increased unemployment • Poverty Bankruptcy • Starvation • All kinds of things that happen when the society collapses. • Back BICEA

11. Summary of the text • The article aims at establishing the idea that oil price will not rise even as demand soars. To begin with, the author shows the increasing consumption of oil around the world and the impact of technology on oil industry. By giving several examples, he draws the conclusion that the need for cash and dependence on technology leads to the fact that oil prices BICEA

12. will even fall. Furthermore, technological updating, slashing the costs of finding, producing, and refining oil, is also a reason to support the author’s point. There is evidence that technology lets the world companies maintain healthy earnings at lower oil prices. In conclusion, cheap oil accelerates the world economy, and a downside price scenario is increasingly likely.  Summary of the text BICEA

13. II. Background information • A heated argument on whether our earth will be depleted of oil has been going on in newspaper, magazines and websites and it is closely related with the careening oil prices. According to some investors like Rainwater, oil price will inevitably go up as the non-renewable resource is dwindling. However, there are economists who hold the idea that human will give up exploring oil when it becomes too costly. Oil, therefore, will never be used up. Technology is the driving force that will help to produce more BICEA

14. oil than people could imagine. According to the principle of economics, prices are determined by the interaction between supply and demand. But the author of the text insists that oil price won’t rise even as demand soars owing to the developing technology. OPEC The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was founded in Sept. 1960 by the five initial countries: Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait. Now OPEC has 11member countries. II. Background information BICEA

15. Text Structure • Part I (para. 1-4) • Even through oil consumption is _____ than before, its prices won’t rise for several reasons. • Part II (para. 5-12) • With the increasing of ________________ and the __________ of technology, oil price is ______ to rise. higher measured oil reserves development unlikely BICEA

16. Part III (para. 13-16) falling down • Part III The ________ of oil prices has _________ on the world economy. • Back good effect BICEA

17. BICEA

18. Language Points • Crude-oil prices have been careening like steel balls in a pinball machine this autumn in response to news and rumors from the Middle East. (Para.1) • With the influence of the news and rumors from the Middle East, the crude-oil prices have been unsteady. • 今年秋天，原油价格就像弹球游戏中的钢珠，呼应着来自中东的各种各样的新闻和谣言，摇摆不定。 BICEA

19. Pinball: a game played on a machine with a sloping board which a ball rolls down while the player tries to prevent it from reaching the bottom. BICEA

20. Language Points • Americans have fallen in love with gas guzzlers such as the Ford Expedition. (Para.2) • Gas guzzler refers to the vehicle which consumes a great amount of gasoline. • 美国人爱上了像福特探险这样的耗油车。 BICEA

21. Language Points • 2007 Ford Expedition- a kind of oil-consuming vehicle BICEA

22. Language Points • Fort Worth investor Richard E. Rainwater has 30% of his $1.5 billion net worth sunk in oil and gas investments because he expects prices to rise 50% to 75% in the next 5 to 10 years. (Para. 2) • 福特沃兹的投资家理查德 E. 雨水将自己15亿净资产的30%投入石油天然气,因为他预料价格在未来5-10年内会上涨50%-75%。 • 石油经济界的著名理论“雨水高价理论”就是由Richard E. Rainwater提出的。 • Fort Worth: a town in Texas in the United States BICEA

23. Richard E. Rainwater: (born 1943) is an investor and billionaire fund manager. With an estimated current net worth of around $2.5 billion, he is ranked by Forbes as the 335-richest person in the world BICEA

24. Language Points • And the supply curve for oil--the amount offered at any given price--is being pushed steadily outward, thanks to technology. (Para. 4) • 由于科技的进步，石油供给曲线 — 在任何既定价格下的供应量 — 将不断向外移动。 • Supply curve being pushed outward suggests that the quantity of supply for oil is increasing. BICEA

25. The new alchemy runs from three-dimensional seismology to exotic wells that sit on the ocean floor, in some cases eliminating the need for billion-dollar offshore production platforms. (Para. 5) • 新型技术从以前的三维地震学一跃发展到能够位于海底的国外的油井进行探测，这在很多请款下身去了大件海上生产平台所需的巨额资金。 BICEA

26. Language Points • “Oil-price forecasters make sheep seem like independent thinkers.”(para.12) • if people behave like sheep, they do not think independently, but follow what everyone else does or thinks. • Tourists were led around like sheep, from shrine to souvenir shop. • This is an analogy. It suggests the change of oil prices is not an intellectual process as those oil forecasters analyzed. • 油价预测专家能使绵羊看起来都想独立思考者。 • Back BICEA

27. Word study • careen:v. [vi. + adv. / prep] • to go forward quickly while moving from side to side 歪歪斜斜地疾驶；猛冲； • The driver lost control of his car when the brakes failed, and it went careening down the hill. • 因司机失控，那辆汽车就横冲直闯地冲下山去。 • His life was spiraling out of control and he was careening from drugs to alcohol and back to drugs. BICEA

28. Word study • in response to • something that is done as a reaction to something that has happened or been said: 作出反应，响应 • The law was passed in response to public pressure. • 由于消费力减弱，制造商都在十一月份裁员。 • Manufacturers cut jobs during November in response to weak consumer spending. BICEA

29. Word study • vulnerable adj. • able to be easily physically, emotionally, or mentally hurt, influenced or attacked易受攻击的；脆弱的；敏感的 • His divorce makes him politically vulnerable. • be vulnerable to something • Tourists are more vulnerableto attack, because they do not know which areas of the city to avoid. BICEA

30. Word study • be in for: unable to avoid; sure to happen (不可避免地）将要遭遇 • That country is in for a prolonged period of instability. • 那个国家免不了要经历一个漫长的动荡时期。 • 恐怕他要失望了。 • I’m afraid he is in for a bit of a disappointment. BICEA

31. Word study • scenarion. • a situation that could possibly happen （有可能出现的）情景；场面 • Imagine a scenario where only 20% of people have a job. • possible/likely/plausible scenario • Under a likely scenario, world population will double by 2050. • 到2050年世界人口可能翻番。 BICEA

32. Word study • scenario n. • a situation that could possibly happen （有可能出现的）情景；场面 • worst-case/nightmare scenario (=the worst possible situation) • 最糟的情况是他必须做手术。 • The worst-case scenario was that he would have to have an operation. BICEA

33. Word study • skirmishn. • (1) a fight between a small number of soldiers which is usually short and not planned and which happens away from the main area of fighting in a war. • (2) a short argument • That afternoon saw slight skirmishes between the people for and against Chen in Tainan. • 贝茨由于和裁判有了冲突被罚下场。 • Bates was sent off after a skirmish with the referee. BICEA

34. Word study • slash v. • 1) to cut or try to cut something violently with a knife, sword etc. • We slashed through the dense jungle. • 我们从茂密的丛林里劈出了一条路。 • The man slashed her face with a knife. • 那男子用刀给她毁了容。 BICEA

35. Word study • 2）to greatly reduce an amount, price etc [synonym: cut] 大幅度地裁减或消减 • Congress has slashed the budget for programs to help poor families. • 国会大幅削减规划预算以帮助贫困家庭。 • 劳动力被裁减了50% 。 • The workforce has been slashed by 50%. BICEA

36. Word study • 3) to criticize sharply 尖刻地批评 • The work of the composer has been slashed by the reviewers. • 这名作曲家的作品受到批评家严厉地批评。 BICEA

37. Word study • alchemyn. a seemingly magical power or process of transmuting 魔力，似有的魔力或变幻过程 • What alchemy have you worked on the boy? • 你在那孩子身上施了什么法术了？ • He wondered by what alchemy it was changed, so that what sickened him one hour, maddened him with hunger the next. • “他想知道是什么样的魔力导致了这样的变化，一小时前使他厌恶的东西，现在却发疯似地想得到它。” BICEA

38. Word study • drive something ↔ down: to make prices, costs etc. fall quickly: (价格、成本等)迅速下降 • We must drive down costs to keep the project going. • But we must drive inflation down so that it no longer affects the decisions made by ordinary people, businesses and government. • 我们必须使物价涨幅将下来使其不再影响百姓、企业及政府的决定。 BICEA

39. Word study • short of doing: without actually doing 若无…; 除非… • Short of locking her in her room, he just couldn’t stop her from seeing Jack. • 除了召集会议外，我不知道还有什么办法能使我们的计划得以批准。 • Short of calling a meeting, I don’t know how to get our plan approved. BICEA

40. Word study • curtail v. to stop something before it is finished, or to reduce or limit something 缩短，减少，消减 • Budget cuts forced schools to curtail after-school programs. • 时间不够用了，他只好缩短讲话内容。 • He had to curtail his speech when time ran out. BICEA

41. Word study • notwithstandingprep. • in spite of (fml.)虽然；尽管 • Language difficulties notwithstanding, he soon grew to love the country and its people. • 虽然语言不同，他还是很快就爱上这个国家及该国的人民。 • Fame and fortune notwithstanding, Donna never forgot her hometown. • 虽然名利双收，Donna从来也没有忘记她的家乡。 • Notwithstanding differences, there are clear similarities in all of the world's religions. • adv. • We proceeded, notwithstanding. • 尽管如此，我们还是继续前行。 BICEA

42. Language Points • cold war : a state of extreme unfriendliness existing between countries, especially with opposing political systems, which expresses itself not through fighting but through political pressure and threats. The expression is usually used of the relationship between the US and the Soviet Union after the Second World War. BICEA

43. add to:1) to become a particular amount: 使总数达到/增加到 • The various building programs add up to several thousand new homes. • 各类建筑项目加在一起又增加了上千个新住宅. • 我们觉得买了很多吃的，但是摆在桌上并没有多少。 • We thought we'd bought lots of food, but it didn't add to much when we'd spread it out on the table. BICEA

44. 2) to make a feeling or quality stronger and more noticeable：使增加…; 使更加… • This show will no doubt add to his growing reputation. • 遵照新的条例将增加该项目的成本。 • Conforming to the new regulations will add to the cost of the project. BICEA

45. to add insult to injury • to make a bad situation worse • The bank not only refused to refund the money but, to add insult to injury, charged me for the letter telling me so! add fuel to the fire/flames • to make an argument or disagreement worse • Rather than providing a solution, their statements merely added fuel to the fire. BICEA

46. Language Points • mind-boggling adj. extremely surprising and difficult to understand or imagine 不可思议的，难以想象的 • The amount of money that some countries spend on weapons is mind-boggling. • His salary is nothing compared to the mind-boggling figures earned by some sportsmen. BICEA

47. Word study • mind/imagination-boggles • （idiom） • one can hardly accept or imagine (an idea, suggestion etc.) • （对某一想法，建议等）难以接受或难以想象 • My neighbor wears his dressing-gown to work. The mind boggles! • 我的邻居穿着睡衣去上班，真不可思议！ BICEA

48. Word study • boggle v. • (infml. 口语 ） • hesitate (at sth.) in alarm or amazement , to shy away or be overcome with fright or astonishment • （因为惊慌或惊奇）犹豫不决, 畏缩不前 • My mind boggles at the amount of work still to do. • He boggled at the thought of swimming in winter. • 他想到要在冬天游泳就有些犹豫不决。 BICEA

49. Word study • understate v. • to describe something in a way that makes it seem less important or serious than it really is • The press have tended to understate the extent of the problem. • 轻描淡写的陈述，不完全的陈述 • She believes the research understates the amount of discrimination women suffer. BICEA

50. Word study • [Antonym]: overstate 夸大 • The impact of the new legislation has been greatly overstated. • The shareholders seem to think that the executive board is overstating the case for a merger (合并). BICEA