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Carbon Cycle Modeling. Global Carbon Cycle. Carbon Budget: missing sink. Biosphere-atmosphere exchange: photosynthesis and respiration. 6 CO2 + 12 H2O + light → C6H12O6 + 6 O2 + 6 H2O Carbon Dioxide + Water + Light energy → Glucose + Oxygen + Water C6H12O6 + 6O2 → 6CO2 + 6H2O.

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Biosphere atmosphere exchange photosynthesis and respiration
Biosphere-atmosphere exchange:photosynthesis and respiration

  • 6 CO2 + 12 H2O + light → C6H12O6 + 6 O2 + 6 H2O

    • Carbon Dioxide + Water + Light energy → Glucose + Oxygen + Water

    • C6H12O6 + 6O2 → 6CO2 + 6H2O



computed using the mean monthly distribution of sea-air pCO difference,

the climatological NCEP 41-year mean wind speed. The yellow-red colors indicate a region characterized by a net release of CO to the atmosphere, and the blue-purple colors indicate a region with a net uptake of CO from the atmosphere. This map yields an annual oceanic uptake flux for CO of 2.2 ± 0.4 Pg C yr .


Annual national wood harvest aggregated to continental values, for 1700 – 2000.

Total global integrated wood harvest 1700-2000 is 86 Pg C.


Modeler s view of the carbon cycle
Modeler’s View of the Carbon Cycle values, for 1700 – 2000.

Fossil Fuels

Atmosphere

CO2 = 280 ppmv (560 PgC) + FF

4yr

90±

60±

Ocean Circ.

+ BGC

Biophysics

+ BGC

100-102 yr

100-103 yr

2000 Pg C

37400 Pg C + FF

…equilibrium takes 103-104 yrs


A model
A Model values, for 1700 – 2000.

  • Model is a theoretical construct that represent a set of particular processes and phenomena

    • a set of variables – input, output, state, parameters

    • a set of logical and quantitative relationships between them

    • a set of assumptions

  • Idealized logical framework to test hypothesis and to ask scientific questions


CO values, for 1700 – 2000. 2 change

Lands use changes


Grid and resolution
Grid and Resolution values, for 1700 – 2000.

  • Gaussian

  • Lat x Lon

    • 2 ° x 2.5 °

    • 1° x 1 °

  • Time step:

    30 Minutes

  • Simulation:

    centuries


Lm3v functionality
LM3V Functionality values, for 1700 – 2000.

  • Land surface parameterization

    • energy, water, and momentum exchange

  • Hydrological processes

    • River flow, water resource development and use, extreme events

  • Ecological processes

    • vegetation functioning, structure, distribution, and disturbance (natural and anthropogenic)

  • Carbon cycling

    • CO2 fluxes, vegetation and soil carbon pool

  • Land use and management


Lm3v structure
LM3V structure values, for 1700 – 2000.


Lm3v structure1
LM3V structure values, for 1700 – 2000.


Cumulative discharge from nov 1986 to nov 1987 log scale in the new river routing model
Cumulative Discharge from Nov 1986 to Nov 1987 (log scale) values, for 1700 – 2000. in the New River Routing Model


Why do we need a model of values, for 1700 – 2000.

vegetation dynamics

and biogeochemical cycles?


Climate change
Climate change values, for 1700 – 2000.

Hypotheses for the terrestrial sink:

1. CO2 Fertilization

2. Climate Change

3. Land Use

Solving the carbon problem is

twice as hard if the missing sink is caused by land use instead of CO2 fertilization.


Nutrients delivery to the coasts
Nutrients delivery to the coasts values, for 1700 – 2000.

Courtesy C. Vorosmarty, UNH


Scientific questions
Scientific Questions values, for 1700 – 2000.

  • How did recent changes in climate, CO2 and land use shape the present day distribution of land carbon and nitrogen sources and sinks?

  • What are the influences of land cover changes on continental precipitation and runoff?

  • What are the implications of climate change for the distribution and functioning of terrestrial vegetation ?

  • What are the terrestrial biosphere feedbacks on climate?

  • What is the role of plants diversity in the global biogeochemical cycles and climate system?


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