Carbon cycle modeling
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Carbon Cycle Modeling. Global Carbon Cycle. Carbon Budget: missing sink. Biosphere-atmosphere exchange: photosynthesis and respiration. 6 CO2 + 12 H2O + light → C6H12O6 + 6 O2 + 6 H2O Carbon Dioxide + Water + Light energy → Glucose + Oxygen + Water C6H12O6 + 6O2 → 6CO2 + 6H2O.

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Carbon Cycle Modeling

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Carbon cycle modeling

Carbon Cycle Modeling


Global carbon cycle

Global Carbon Cycle


Carbon budget missing sink

Carbon Budget: missing sink


Biosphere atmosphere exchange photosynthesis and respiration

Biosphere-atmosphere exchange:photosynthesis and respiration

  • 6 CO2 + 12 H2O + light → C6H12O6 + 6 O2 + 6 H2O

    • Carbon Dioxide + Water + Light energy → Glucose + Oxygen + Water

    • C6H12O6 + 6O2 → 6CO2 + 6H2O


Fire emissions

Fire emissions


Carbon cycle modeling

computed using the mean monthly distribution of sea-air pCO difference,

the climatological NCEP 41-year mean wind speed. The yellow-red colors indicate a region characterized by a net release of CO to the atmosphere, and the blue-purple colors indicate a region with a net uptake of CO from the atmosphere. This map yields an annual oceanic uptake flux for CO of 2.2 ± 0.4 Pg C yr .


Carbon cycle modeling

Annual national wood harvest aggregated to continental values, for 1700 – 2000.

Total global integrated wood harvest 1700-2000 is 86 Pg C.


Modeler s view of the carbon cycle

Modeler’s View of the Carbon Cycle

Fossil Fuels

Atmosphere

CO2 = 280 ppmv (560 PgC) + FF

4yr

90±

60±

Ocean Circ.

+ BGC

Biophysics

+ BGC

100-102 yr

100-103 yr

2000 Pg C

37400 Pg C + FF

…equilibrium takes 103-104 yrs


A model

A Model

  • Model is a theoretical construct that represent a set of particular processes and phenomena

    • a set of variables – input, output, state, parameters

    • a set of logical and quantitative relationships between them

    • a set of assumptions

  • Idealized logical framework to test hypothesis and to ask scientific questions


Carbon cycle modeling

CO2 change

Lands use changes


Grid and resolution

Grid and Resolution

  • Gaussian

  • Lat x Lon

    • 2 ° x 2.5 °

    • 1° x 1 °

  • Time step:

    30 Minutes

  • Simulation:

    centuries


Lm3v functionality

LM3V Functionality

  • Land surface parameterization

    • energy, water, and momentum exchange

  • Hydrological processes

    • River flow, water resource development and use, extreme events

  • Ecological processes

    • vegetation functioning, structure, distribution, and disturbance (natural and anthropogenic)

  • Carbon cycling

    • CO2 fluxes, vegetation and soil carbon pool

  • Land use and management


Lm3v structure

LM3V structure


Lm3v structure1

LM3V structure


Cumulative discharge from nov 1986 to nov 1987 log scale in the new river routing model

Cumulative Discharge from Nov 1986 to Nov 1987 (log scale)in the New River Routing Model


Carbon cycle modeling

Why do we need a model of

vegetation dynamics

and biogeochemical cycles?


Climate change

Climate change

Hypotheses for the terrestrial sink:

1. CO2 Fertilization

2. Climate Change

3. Land Use

Solving the carbon problem is

twice as hard if the missing sink is caused by land use instead of CO2 fertilization.


Nutrients delivery to the coasts

Nutrients delivery to the coasts

Courtesy C. Vorosmarty, UNH


Scientific questions

Scientific Questions

  • How did recent changes in climate, CO2 and land use shape the present day distribution of land carbon and nitrogen sources and sinks?

  • What are the influences of land cover changes on continental precipitation and runoff?

  • What are the implications of climate change for the distribution and functioning of terrestrial vegetation ?

  • What are the terrestrial biosphere feedbacks on climate?

  • What is the role of plants diversity in the global biogeochemical cycles and climate system?


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