Version 03

1. Version 03 Earth observation for monitoring and assessment of the environmental impact of energy use

2. Project overview Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up Seventh Framework Programme Theme 6 - Environment FP7-ENV-2008-1 GA No. 216364 12 partners from 6 countries Project duration: 11/2009 – 10/2013 EC contribution: € 6 010 930 Coordinator: Dr. Martijn Schaap, TNO Website: http://www.energeo-project.eu

3. Consortium Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up

4. Project background Worldwide demand of energy is growing and will continue to do so for the next decades to come. The International Energy Agency IEA has estimated that global primary energy demand will increase by 40 – 50 % from 2003 to 2030 (2005 estimates) depending on the fact whether energy policies are directed towards energy-saving and fuel-diversification will be effectuated. Since energy production, transportation and consumption place considerable pressures on the environment, there is serious concern regarding the sustainability of the current and future pattern of energy consumption.  EnerGEO develops products and methodologies that provide energy companies, consultants and policy makers (local, regional, global) with the tools to evaluate the environmental impact of changes in energy use in terms of the complete life cycle including exploration, development, exploitation, maintenance and decommissioning. Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up

5. Project objectives EnerGEO develops a strategy for a global assessment of current and future impacts of the exploitation of energy resources on the environment and ecosystems based on the use of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) capacities. This strategy is demonstrated for a variety of energy resources worldwide (fossil fuels, biomass, solar and wind energy). EnerGEO combines: 1. Existing energy systemmodelsandmodels capable of assessing and forecasting environmental impactsand costs of energy exploitation 2. Existing global earth observation datasetsfromwhich environmental indicators are derived in order to quantify changes to freshwater systems, biosphere, ecosystems, atmosphereandoceans Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up

6. Project objectives 4 Pilots were selected for testing and demonstrating the observation system and developed scenarios: Fossil fuels: impact on atmospheric composition and land degradation Biomass: impact on ecosystems, biodiversity and food security Solar energy: select optimum power plant locations and support electricity grid integration Wind: assess the potential (net) energy, assess environmental impacts of the substitution of fossil energy by wind power all pilotoutputs will beconvertedintoEnvironmental Impact AssessmentsandtentativelyintegratedthroughthePlatform Integrated Assessment (PIA) Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up

7. Project logic Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up

8. GEO Context EnerGEO represents a major contribution of the European Commission to GEOSS, in particular to the Societal Benefit Area (SBA) Energy and the GEO-tasks EN-01 (Energy and Geo-Resources Management) and SB-05 (Impact Assessment of Human Activities) (or any GEO Workpackage derived from these). By developing a distributed systembased on the recommendations of the GEO-Architecture and Data Committee (ADC), global collection and dissemination ofdata relating to the impact of energy use on the environmentwill be supported. Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up The SBAs of GEOSS

9. DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up

10. Fossil Fuels – origin of air pollution Particulate matter (PM) has a negative impact on human health. We improve the modeling of PM concentrations over Europe including the development of a source apportionment tool to assess the contribution of fossil fuel combustion. These results were compared to Positive Matrix Factorisation results. Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up Share of PM2.5 concentration caused by coal burning Comparison of carbon concentration ascribed to burning of heavy fuel oil PMF and LOTOS-EUROS Share of EC2.5 concentration caused by diesel burning

11. Fossil Fuels – Mercurymodelingandemissions Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up Coal fired power plants are an important source of (reactive) mercury. A mercury module for air quality model Polyphemus was developed and tested Emission databases are lacking detail in both type of Hg emitted and source sectors and report quite different mercury emissions. Schematic of Mercury module developed Emission of Hg divided over source sectors for three different databases % of emissions from the power sector to overall concentration of particulate mercury

12. Fossil Fuels – Energy Transition Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up Large scale energy transitions have a significant impact on air quality. Generally air quality will benefit from less emissions, but there are some issues: Large-scale production of biomass will affect ozone concentrations Because solar and wind energy revenue is dependent on meteorology, the timing of emissions from the back-up fossil fuel combustion will change as well. This may impact air pollution from fossil fuel use. When change in emission timing is included, power plant pollution is more persistent Model used: air quality model LOTOS-EUROS Increased isoprene emissions from biomass production will increase ozone concentrations and damage indicators

13. Biomass - Energy potentials G4M is used to produce global energy potentials from forestry EPIC is used to produce global energy potentials from crops Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up Energy potentials from forests as computed with the G4M model. Values in TJ/y/grid cell of 0.5x0.5º. White: no forest. Red: tropical forests and savannahs. Bioenergy potentials for 2090 derived from barley, grain maize, oats, rapeseed, rye and wheat. Modeled on 10 km2 resolution with the EPIC model 13

14. Biomass Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up BETHY/DLR uses remote sensing data to derive biomass maps from which net primary productivity maps can be computed. A landuse / landcover database for Pakistan was constructed The use of LIDAR data for the identification of vegetation types was tested but not yet successful. A landcover / landuse database for Pakistan was developed

15. Solar energy: Siting support The aim of this part of the solar energy pilot is to provide a web service with information on the best locations to build a solar park. Inputs used are solar radiation, land use, population density, infrastructure, electricity grid, etc. Output is available as maps and as location-specific raster diagrams. Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up Left: examples of input maps (electric grid, population, irradiance) to calculate best sites to locate a solar power plant. Right: example of output of the web service: map with potential for solar power plants and raster diagram for one location.

16. Solar energy: Grid planning support • Focus on grid planning support by providing information about the reliability of solar energy specific weather forecasts. This is important because good forecasts are needed to estimate how much solar energy will be produced and how much other electricity is needed at each time. Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up Error estimate of direct normal irradiation, forecast 12 hours ahead: Root mean square error divided by mean DNI. Left: based on ECMWF forecast; Right: based on 2day persistance method, which assumes yesterday’s weather conditions and electricity generation also for the following day

17. Wind - Potential wind energy High-resolution meteorological models are used to analyse potential energyyields, accountingfor wind speeds, maintenanceschemesandtransport Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up

18. Wind - Potential wind energy Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up Correlation between wind speeds at location off the coast of Norwich and the rest of the area. This correlation is important in view of availability of electricity: what is the chance that there is wind in one wind park when the other is not producing because of lack of wind? Mean wind power potential

19. Wind - LCA Results:Environmental impacts / kWh produced at the high-voltage onshore grid • Main assumptions: • 50 Wind Turbines per farm and per HV transformer • Load factor: 53% • WT lifetime : 20 years • HV transformer lifetime: 35 years • Submarine cables lifetime: 40 years • Distance to shore: 50km • O&M scheme: inspection 4 times per year by helicopter + 1 return transport farm/harbor by transoceanic tanker during the life time of the farm • No additional recycling scheme considered (Ecoinvent already include recycled materials in its inventories) Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up Environmental impacts per kWh energy produced for all aspects of building and maintenance of wind mills.

20. Wind - Life Cycle Assessment Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up LCA results are also available on maps via http://viewer.webservice-energy.org/energeo_wind_pilot/index.htm Example of result from LCA analysis: primary energy required to build a park of 40 wind mills.

21. EnerGEO portal – link to GEOSS Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up EnerGEOPortal Architecture is linked to GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI)

22. EnerGEO portal - example Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up http://energeo.researchstudio.at/ Example of web service available through EnerGEO portal: Climate change impact of solar panels

23. Platform forIntegrated Assessment: PIA • Following the DPSIR (Drivers, Pressure, State, Impact, Response) concept • Focus on the conversion from STATE indicators into IMPACT indicators through damage functions • A display of pilot results through graphical Web clients and depository process Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up Example of PIA result: web service for health impact due to PM2.5 pollution. Concentrations feed in from GAINS and LOTOS-EUROS model, these are weighted by population (age specific) and damage functions

24. PIA – Energy Scenarios • Four energy scenarios for Europe are defined and will be assessed in the PIA Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up Top: ‘Open Europe’ energy scenario, characterised by a relatively large share of electricity from biomass, calculated with the GAINS model. Left: Electricity production time profile for a summer week in June in a scenario using 80% renewable electricity. For all scenarios such time profiles are calculated using the REMIX model.

25. Wrap up Linking Energy Use and Environmental Impact by making use of state of the art environmental, energy and scenario models Collecting the necessary datasets and deriving indicators from them by connecting to current GEO-contributions and state-of-the-art in-situ global networks Enabling the collection of and access to EnerGEO-data by building a portal within the context of GEO and based on GEO-ADC-recommendations Testing the EnerGEO approach through dedicated pilots making our approach viable and supportive Proposing perspectives from Pilot-scale to Global Scale enabling to run global scenarios on energy use and environmental impact Introduction Objectives Project logic GEO context DPSIR framework in EnerGEO Pilots EnerGEO portal PIA Wrap up

26. Thank you http://www.energeo-project.eu/