Future of opportunity
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Future of opportunity

The fonts, font sizes, colours & styles

have been

set according to the guidelines laid down by the Marketing Division.

Please do not change any of the above.

Future of opportunity

AgriSeta Awards 2010

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Agenda

AGENDA

Where does the sector find itself?

  • Macro economic environment

    • Global

    • Domestic

  • Agricultural economic environment

  • The consumer and future trends

    • BFAP

    • Other global trends

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The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Recession costs

Global Economy

Recession costs

Crisis not costless and recovery not certain?

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The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Imf forecasts

Global Economy

IMF forecasts

Economic activity on the mend

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The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Recovery profile of advanced economies

Global Economy

Recovery profile of advanced economies

How long will it take the SA economy to close the “output gap”

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The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Still experiencing a hangover

Domestic Economy

Still experiencing a hangover?

......deviation in GDP relative to trend last 3 downswings

  • Recent recession somewhere between downswings of ’81 and ‘96.

  • Surprisingly strong GDP growth in Q1 probably not sustainable.

  • Do not expect double dip

  • BUT growth could be relatively slow.

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The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Not creating jobs fast enough

Domestic Economy

Not creating jobs fast enough

Jobless growth

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The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Household debt

Domestic Economy

Household debt

How long will deleveraging of consumers take

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The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Household deleveraging

Domestic Economy

Household deleveraging

Can take up to 5 years??

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The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Agric in a squeeze

Agriculture

Agric in a squeeze

Agriculture’s terms of trade is at it’s lowest levels in more than a decade

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The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Gross income earned

Agriculture

Gross Income Earned

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The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Gross income earned1

Agriculture

Gross Income Earned

Field crops

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Source: DoA, 2010

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Gross income earned2

Agriculture

Gross Income Earned

Livestock

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Source: DoA, 2010

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Gross income earned3

Agriculture

Gross Income Earned

Horticulture

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Source: DoA, 2010

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Food consumption forecast in sa

Agriculture

Food consumption forecast in SA

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Source: BMI, SA Food and Drink Report

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


What does the sa consumer look like

Consumer Trends

What does the SA consumer look like?

The SAARF LSM Segments: Proportion of SA adult population and average monthly household income in 2009

Source: SAARF (2010a)

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Source: BFAP, Agricultural Outlook 2010

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


The sa consumer class mobility

Consumer Trends

The SA consumer – class mobility

LSM class mobility: All adults during the period 2004 to 2008

Source: SAARF AMPS data for the period 2004 to 2009

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Source: BFAP, Agricultural Outlook 2010

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Global perspective

Consumer Trends

Global Perspective

Trend- “Pattern of gradual change in a condition, output or process, or average or general tendency of a series of data points to move in a certain direction over time, represented by a line or a curve on a graph.”

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  • Global trends:

  • Health/ Wellbeing

  • Indulgence

  • Ethical and environmental concerns

  • Simplicity

  • Convenience

“successful food products usually rely on ‘double-positioning strategies’, where food products are designed to address at least two (or more) consumer food trends”

Source: BFAP, Agricultural Outlook 2010

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Future trends

Global Trends

Future trends......

  • BRAND FABRIC

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Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Future trends1

Global Trends

Future trends......

  • BRAND FABRIC

  • INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.

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Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Future trends2

Global Trends

Future trends......

  • INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.

  • Wine vendor donates clean water

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Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Future trends3

Global Trends

Future trends......

  • INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.

  • In Japan Kit Kat releases 9 regional favourites

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Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Future trends4

Global Trends

Future trends......

  • INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.

  • Organic soups delivered weekly by bicycles

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Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Future trends5

Global Trends

Future trends......

  • INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.

  • British retailer issues bonds with returns paid in chocolate

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Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Future trends6

Global Trends

Future trends......

  • BRAND FABRIC

  • INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.

  • URBANY

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Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Future trends7

Global Trends

Future trends......

  • URBANY

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Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Future trends8

Global Trends

Future trends

  • BRAND FABRIC

  • INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.

  • URBANY

  • ECO EASY

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Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Future trends9

Global Trends

Future trends......

  • ECO EASY

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Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Future trends10

Global Trends

Future trends......

  • BRAND FABRIC

  • INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.

  • URBANY

  • ECO EASY

  • TRACKING AND ALERTING

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Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011

The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


What would the crystal ball hold for agriculture over the medium term

Global Trends

What would the crystal ball hold for Agriculture over the medium term?

  • More partnerships/ JV’s and linkages throughout the value chain

  • Food prices will probably increase

  • Consolidation to continue

  • Global demand and supply transitions

  • Shift in traditional marketing strategies

  • Energy opportunity

  • Water challenge

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The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.


Medium term forecasts standard bank group economics

Medium term Forecasts – Standard Bank Group Economics

Source: Standard Bank Group Economics

South Africa, Macroeconomic perspectives, 6 September 2010


Future of opportunity

  • Thank you for your time.

  • Lumé Kleynhans

  • [email protected]


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