Appraisal of Residential Real Estate in Declining Markets 市场下跌时, 如何评估住宅房地产

1. Appraisal of Residential Real Estate in Declining Markets 市场下跌时, 如何评估住宅房地产 主讲人: Mark Rattermann, MAI, SRA 联系方式Mark@Educationresource.com China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

2. Seminar Learning Objectives主要内容 • Recognize general sources of market information that may give indications of market trends.识别反映市场趋势的市场信息 • Recognize a decline in a local market when it occurs.及时发现当地市场出现的下跌趋势 • Measure the value losses in local markets.估算市场中的价值损失 • Apply the measured rate of change in the analysis of real estate using the cost approach, income capitalization approach, and sales comparison approach.在使用成本法, 收益法, 市场比较法分析房地产时, 如何考虑价值的变化 • Illustrate the tools necessary to show your clients the results of the research and analysis (numeric and graphic).给客户演示研究和分析结果的工具(数字和图表) • Apply various methods to recognize and adjust for market change.使用不同的方法, 分析和调整市场的变化 • Apply these techniques in simulated real estate situations through case studies. 案例分析 China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents Slide 2 Page vii

3. Section 1 第一部分 Part 1. Declining Markets 下跌的房地产市场 Part 2. General Market Data 市场数据 Part 3. Identifying the Market 深入了解市场 Part 4. Measuring the Market—Tools 市场分析的工具 Part 5. Case Studies (optional) 案例 China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents Slide 3

4. Part 1. Declining Markets第一节: 下跌的房地产市场 • Introduces the issues 简介 • Defines the terms 定义 • Discusses possible reasons for declining markets and associated problems.市场下跌的原因和相关问题 • Recognize the signs of a declining market.识别反映市场趋势的市场信号 • Recognize the problems created for real estate buyers and sellers by declining markets.认识买方和卖方在下跌市场中存在的问题 • Recognize the impact of falling value on equity interests.了解价值下降对自有资金收益的影响 • Identify the appropriate locations on the commonly used residential appraisal forms to explain market conditions.通用表格式估价报告中如何说明市场市场条件 China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents Slide 4

5. “Last to Know” • Appraisers study historical data to support current values. 通过研究历史数据, 研究当前的价值 • We need to recognize existing tools and explore new ones. 现有的工具和开发新的工具来分析市场变化 • Use a combination of tools (old and new) 同时使用各种工具(新, 旧) • Appraisers need to be able to develop “trend analysis tools”.估价师应该有能力开发“分析市场的工具”. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents Slide 5

6. Analytical Tools Help Appraisers分析工具对估价师的帮助 China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents Slide 6 • Recognize economic problems when they occur. 及时发现经济中存在的问题 • Analyze the impact on real estate of general economic changes. 分析经济变化对房地产市场的影响 • Reconcile the mixed messages. 综合考虑各类信息 • Report your opinion. 在估价报告中说明你的观点

7. When a Market Is Appreciating Rapidly市场快速上升时 China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents • It is more difficult to overvalue a property. 很难不高估房地产的价值 • The effective date of value reflects the market conditions 估价时点反映了市场条件 • It is also common for appraisers to be “forgiven” when prices are increasing. See 1.1 Example. 当价格上升时, 估价师的错误经常被掩盖. 见下一案例

8. 1.1 Example—Appreciation Cures a Lot of Ills • An appraiser erroneously appraises a property for ￥300,000 that is worth only ￥275,000. • In this market, values are increasing at 10% per year. • Less than one year after the original date of appraisal, the property is now worth ￥300,000. • Any previous complaint about overvaluing is diminished by its current worth. • This appraisal might be regarded as a problem by the appraiser’s peers, but not by the public. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

9. When a Market Is Declining市场下跌时 China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents • It is natural to overvalue a property. 高估是正常的 • An overpriced property on the market for a long time moves further away from market value each day. See 1.2 Example. 高估的市场价值每天都在减少

10. 1.2 Example—Chasing the Value Down the Hill • The subject is in a market where prices are falling by about 3% per year. • The property was correctly appraised at ￥300,000, but it was overpriced and did not sell. • The seller aggressively lowered the price by .25% each month. • As a result of the declining market, the seller kept even with the changes. • The property was never priced within this competitive market. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

11. 1.2 Example—Chasing the Value Down the Hill • Optimism in a declining market has its costs. • In a declining market, an accurate value opinion today may not be valid tomorrow. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

12. Negative Equity • If there is negative equity, selling the property and paying off the mortgage may not be an option. • There is an old real estate axiom, “Negative equity breeds foreclosure.” • The only option may be to hold the property as long as possible and then allow a foreclosure. • Declining values bring to light many problems that are otherwise hidden by appreciation. • Even if the broker can sell the property for more than the mortgage amount, there may not be a payday. See 1.3 Example. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

13. 1.3 Example—Negative Equity Breeds Foreclosure China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents • The subject property is listed for sale at ￥349,900. • The broker thinks it will sell for ￥345,000 in this market. • The broker fee is 6% and other costs add 1%. • The broker turned down the listing because the sellers did not have any more money. • The broker did not think she could sell the property for more than ￥345,000.

14. 1.3 Example—Negative Equity Breeds Foreclosure • In other words, the sellers did not have the money to close. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

15. Part 2. General Market Data第二节: 市场数据 Learning Objectives • Define market data terms. 市场数据的定义 • Identify sources of general market data for appraisers to research market conditions.市场数据的来源 • Define the weaknesses of applying general market data to a specific market. 市场数据中存在的缺陷 • Illustrate how some markets function when there are significant supply and demand swings.分析供需变化 China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

16. Contract Rate on 30-Year Fixed-Rate Home Mortgages贷款的浮动利率和固定利率 • The above-listed interest rates are fairly high in the early 1980s. • The rates generally decline in 1982–1983, 1986, 1994, and 1999–2000. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents Page 2-18

17. Contract Rate on 30-Year Fixed-Rate Home Mortgages • An applicant who qualifies for a ￥1,000 per month mortgage payment at a 6% interest rate could borrow ￥166,791.61. • At 14.5%, that same applicant could borrow only ￥81,662.26. • Higher interest rates inhibit demand because buyers do not want to pay higher rates • Buyers may even choose to wait for lower rates. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

18. National Association of Realtors (NAR), national database of sales and listings China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

19. Median Sale Price - Existing Single-Family Home Sales (NAR) China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

20. Median Sale Price Existing Single-Family Home Sales (000’s omitted) China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

21. Existing Single-Family Home Sales (NAR) China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents Page 2-20

22. All State Data (NAR) China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents Slide 22

23. City Median Sale Price Trends

24. Tracking Building Permits can give a clue to a change in demand in the beginning of a downturn market. If the market has changed for a while permits bottom out and then are not a good clue. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

25. Tracking Building Permits from Dept. of Commerce. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents 25

26. New Privately Owned Housing Unit Permits x 1,000 China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

27. What Kind of Markets Exist? The first market in this graph is a volatile one where large increases in prices occur and then large declines. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

28. Relevance of General Data to Local Appraisers “Although this general data is interesting, how can it be applied to appraisal practice?” • When combined with data from other markets, cannot be used to discern local market conditions. • Appraisers can rely on these data sources to help identify a change in market conditions that COULD be happening locally. • This is excellent data for underwriters who review appraisals throughout China. • It is possible for a local market to be substantially different due to changes in employment, housing, or even school ratings. • The local market data may be misleading if the statistics are not calculated on an ongoing basis. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

29. Part 3. Identifying the Market深入了解市场 • Identify criteria that buyers use to select a property to purchase 分析买方购买物业的原因 • Recognize that an oversupply in one market may not mean an oversupply in another market or submarket 一个城市供给过度另一个城市供给并不一定过度 • Be able to divide a market into submarkets to identify trends that affect one segment but not all of them 将市场细分, 分析局部对整体的影响 China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

30. Is Information from One Market Applicable or Transferable to Another?一个市场的信息可以应用到另一个市场吗 • If an appraiser sees prices falling in one market, can it be assumed they are falling in all parts of the same geographic area? • In any market, prices can increase or decrease significantly if a basic economic factor changes. • Is the market in one province or region the same as in other provinces or regions? • There is only one thing certain in this discussion—there is no “one size fits all” market. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

31. Is Information from One Market Applicable or Transferable to Another? • Are the same market conditions applicable to all communities within the same region of a province? • Increasing or declining prices result from shifts in supply and demand in the short run. • There are many factors that will impact one community more than another. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

32. Is Information from One Market Applicable or Transferable to Another? • Are market conditions in a community applicable to all price ranges? • The factors causing high or low demand do not have to be applicable to all demographics. • Is the market for four-bedroom homes the same as the market for two-bedroom homes? • Since the demographic is different, the market conditions could also be much different. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

33. Markets and Submarkets市场和市场细分 • An opinion of market value via sales comparison is research based on what prior market participants have done. • This requires the appraiser to identify the market and any submarkets. • The possible criteria used to identify and segregate a market reflect the criteria by which buyers choose properties to view. • An appraiser cannot count the number of buyers and sellers without knowing their criteria. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

34. Examples of Criteria Used in Purchase Decisions • School system • Municipal government services • Park district • Library district • Location • Fire protection districts • Police districts • Lot size • Utilities available China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents Page 3-39

35. Examples of Criteria Used in Purchase Decisions • Quality of improvements • Age of improvements • Condition of improvements • Size of improvements • Basement and basement finish • Energy efficiency • Car parking • Other features China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents Page 3-39

36. Search tools can compile data from a small, local market area. Some of this data is compiled and graphed for the broker or appraiser as shown on the following graph. Part 4. Measuring the Market—Tools - Local Databases市场分析的工具 China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents 36

37. Local Database Information – pre-calculated analysis China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents 37 37 Page 2-22

38. Local Database Information当地数据信息 China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents 38 Some databases allow appraisers to download large amounts of sales information. This data can be interpreted and presented by the appraiser to support conclusions. There are graphic tools and regression tools available. For example;

39. Local Database Information for a specific subdivision. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents 39 39

40. Graph with regression (trend) line from local database information for a specific subdivision. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents 40 40 Page 2-23

41. Local Database Statistics – Carmel Indiana China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents 41 41

42. Tools—Supply and Demand Study • The first sign of a changing market can be verified by the appraiser while developing the supply and demand study. • Measure the monthly sales rate, e.g. the annual number of sales in the market divided by 12. Divide the number of current for sale (listings) by the monthly sales rate. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

43. To Use This Tool, the Appraiser Must • Assess the attributes of the subject. • Decide who the typical buyer is in the designated market. • Design a search to count the number of competing properties for each potential buyer. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

44. To Use This Tool, the Appraiser Must • Count the number of • Current listings available within those buyer criteria • Comparable sales that have closed in the last 12 months • Divide the number of listings by the monthly absorption rate. • Either an excess or a lack of pending sales could indicate a change. • Pending sales and expired/withdrawn listings do not have to be included. • This analysis can be done for 6 or 12 months. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

45. 4.1 Example—Supply and Demand Analysis of Oversupply • The subject property is improved with a two-story house built in 1997 with a full basement and an attached two-car garage. • The appraiser’s analysis indicates the home should sell for about ￥350,000. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

46. 4.1 Example—Supply and Demand Analysis of Oversupply • This is probably the best tool available to easily research, analyze, and report an oversupply problem. • The data implies that there is currently a 37-month supply of homes for sale in this market. • Appraisers who feel the need to report the perimeters of the search should not include bedrooms, a school system, or other attributes that may cause fair housing concerns. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

47. 4.2 Example—Supply and Demand Analysis of Undersupply • The subject is a one-story home built on slab with a detached four-car garage. • It was constructed in 1930. The appraiser has valued the home at ￥550,000. China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents

48. 4.2 Example—Supply and Demand Analysis of Undersupply • This example shows a market favoring sellers that would probably cause prices to increase. • If the comparable sales used in an appraisal are recent, they would already reflect the impact of such a market. • The question raised by both 4.1 Example and 4.2 Example is, “Does this reflect the market for the subject as of the effective date of appraisal?” Page 4-50 China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents Slide 48

49. Tools—Using Comparable Listings in Addition to Sales • Another tool used by many appraisers to ensure they are aware of a decline in the market is including two or three current comparable listings in the analysis. • An example of an analysis with comparable listings appears on the next two slides. Page 4-50 China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents Slide 49

50. Comparables 1 and 2 China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents