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Topic 5 – Global Population and Migration. A – Global Demography B – International Migration C – Health and Epidemics. A – Global Demography. Demographic History Population Trends Demographic Transition Population Distribution. Diffusion of Modern Humans.
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Topic 5 – Global Population and Migration A – Global Demography B – International Migration C – Health and Epidemics
A – Global Demography Demographic History Population Trends Demographic Transition Population Distribution
World Population, 1000BC-2050AD (in billions) Population “explosion” A process of strong demographic growth. Started after the Second World War. About 80 million people added each year.
20 years 15 years 13 years 12 years 13 years 15 years 37 years 118 years World Population 1804-2048 (in billions)
Demographic Transition Theory Explain the demographic transition theory and its impacts on global population growth.
Survivorship of the British Population, 17th and 20th Centuries
Relationship Between Fertility and GDP per Capita, Selected Countries, 2007 With is the relationship between TFR and GDP and to what this relation may be attributed to?
World Population Density and Distribution, 2005 Typical concentrations along major river systems. Areas of large concentrations: South Asia, East Asia, Western Europe, Northeastern North America. “Empty” areas are attributed to: harsh physical landscapes and harsh temperature.
Main Demographic Issues • Fast demographic growth in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia • Lack of resources such as arable land and water as well as economic opportunities. • Acute migration pressures towards developed economies (Europe). • Demographic decline and ageing in advanced economies • Particularly Europe and East Asia (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China). • Emerging trends for the Americas. • Welfare and social security issues. • Urbanization • Urban areas as an outcome of migration in developing economies. • Large cities and infrastructure issues. • Unskilled labor force • Globalization relied on low wage / low skill labor. • Automation and robotization undermining work prospects for low skilled workers.
Essay: Global Demography Based upon the material seen in class, elaborate about the world’s major demographic challenges in the coming years.
B – International Migration Types of Migration Migration Patterns Brain Drain Migration Policy Refugees
Types of Migration • International Migration • Emigration is an indicator of economic and/or social failures of a society. • Three types of migration: • Internal and rural to urban migration. • International labor migration (legal and illegal). • Refugees. • Crossing of a national boundary. • Easier to control and monitor; Laws to control / inhibit these movements. • Between 2 million and 3 million people emigrate each year. • In 2015, 244 million people (3.3%) of the world's population, lived outside their country of origin / birth.
Types of Migration • Emigration and immigration • Change in residence. • Relative to origin and destination. • Requires information • People and conditions. • Two different places (Geographical). • Two different times (Temporal). • Duration • Permanent. • Seasonal / Temporary. • Choice / constraint • Improve one’s life. • Leave inconvenient / threatening conditions. A Problems or benefits? Emigrant Immigrant B Problems or benefits?
Types of Migration • Gross migration • Total number of people coming in and out of an area. • Level of population turnover. • Net Migration • Difference between immigration (in-migration) and emigration (out-migration). • Positive value: • More people coming in. • Population growth (44% of North America and 88% of Europe). • Negative value: • More people coming out. • Population decline. Gross migration Immigration Emigration Net migration
2. Global Net Migration (2010-2015) Read this content
Immigration to the United States, 1820-2017 (Millions) Latin America Asia Southeast Europe Germany Scandinavia British Isles Explain the different waves of immigration the US has been subject to.
FRONTIER EXPANSION: 1830-1880 • Cheap farmland and the promise of economic growth in the first Industrial Revolution spurred large-scale immigration from Britain, Germany, and other parts of Central Europe. • The Irish Potato Famine from 1845 to 1849 drove many immigrants from Ireland over to the U.S. • The 1848 Treaty of Guadalupe ended the Mexican-American war, and extended U.S. citizenship to over 70,000 Mexican residents. • INDUSTRIALIZATION: 1880-1915 • Immigrant mobility increased with the introduction of large steam-powered ships. The expansion of railroads in Europe also made it easier for people to reach oceanic ports. • The Chinese Exclusion act in 1882 prohibited Chinese laborers from entry. • In 1892, the Ellis Island opened; the first federal immigration station provided a gateway for over 12 million people. • THE GREAT PAUSE: 1915-1965 • The Immigration Act of 1924 enacted quotas on immigrant numbers, restricting groups from countries in Southern and Eastern Europe, and virtually all immigrants of Asian origin. • The Great Depression, and subsequent World Wars also complicated immigration matters as many came to seek refuge in the United States. • POST-1965 IMMIGRATION: 1965-Present • The Hart-Cellber (Immigration and Naturalization Act) of 1965 overturned all previous quotas based on national origin. Family unification and an increase in skilled labor were two major aims of this act. • This decision significantly impacted the U.S. demographic makeup in the following decades, as more immigrants of Latin, Asian, and African descent entered the country.
Region of Birth of the Foreign-Born Population: 1850 to 2015
Top 10 Countries of Origin for US Permanent Residents, 2005-2017
Brain Drain • Definition • Relates to educationally specific selective migrations. • Globalization: • Requires additional pools of skilled labor force. • Easier to migrate. • Some countries are losing the most educated segment of their population. • Can be both a benefit for the receiving country (brain gain) and a problem to the country of origin.
Brain Drain • Receiving country • Tap various labor pools. • Highly qualified labor contributing to the economy right away. • Promotes economic growth in science and technology. • Not having to pay education and health costs. • It costs about $300,000 to educate an average American. • 50% of skilled migrants go to the US. Only 5% go to Europe. • 30% of Mexicans with a PhD are in the US.
Brain Drain • Country of origin • Education and health costs not paid back. • Losing potential leaders and talent: • Developing countries lose 15% of their graduates. • 15 to 40% of a graduating class in Canada will move to the US. • 50% of Caribbean graduates leave. • Long term impact on economic growth. • Possibility of remittances. • Many brain drain migrants have skills which they can’t use at home: • The resources and technology may not be available. • The specific labor market is not big enough.
Brain Drain • A reverse migration trend • High costs in developed countries. • New opportunities in developing countries. • Part of the offshoring process of many manufacturing and service activities. • Qualified personnel coming back with skills and connections. • Particularly for South Korea, Taiwan, China and India. • Increasing number of Americans working overseas. Explain the nature, causes and possible consequences of brain drain.
Migration Policy • Growing level of temporary migration schemes • Work permits. • More in tune with seasonal and economic cycles. • Skilled migrants are increasingly sought after • Lower costs. • Cannot be easily recruited by another corporation. • Growing anti-immigration stance in many countries • Health: carry endemic diseases (e.g. tuberculosis). • Economic: depress wages and increase social burden. • Nationalism: undermine the cohesion of nation-states. • Environment: cause additional population burdens.
Refugees • The United Nations definition • The 1951 Convention Regarding the Status of Refugees and the 1967 Protocol on the Status of Refugees: • “..... any person who, owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for any reasons of race, religion, nationality, member of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country.…” . • The problem lies in the definition of who is a refugee. • There are no international agreements to protect people who cross boundaries for their economic survival.
Refugees • Conditions to qualify for refugee status • Political persecution must be demonstrated: • Race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group (even gender), or political opinion. • An international boundary must be crossed: • Domestically displaced persons do not qualify. • Protection by one’s government is not seen an alternative: • The government may be the persecutor. • Could be incapable of protecting its citizens from persecution.
Refugees • Origins • The first recorded refugees were the Protestant Huguenots who left France to avoid religious persecution. • About 200,000 at the end of the 17th century. • Went to England, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the English colonies in North America. • Pre-WW II and during WW II • Primarily political elites: • Fleeing repression from the new government, which overthrew them. • Usually small in number and often had substantial resources available to them. • War-driven refugees: • About 12% of the European population displaced. • Usually could be expected to repatriate after the war ended.
Refugees • Post WW II • Change in the patterns of refugee flows: • The majority of refugees are now coming from the developing world. • De-colonization in Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean: • Political unrest in many newly independent states. • Multi-ethnic nature of those states. • The result of the drawing of colonial boundary lines by Europeans. • Cold War and political instability: • Latin America (Cuba, San Salvador, Nicaragua, etc.). • Asia (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc.). • Middle East (Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, etc.) • New kind of refugee flow: • Large and of long (or permanent) duration.
Refugees • Current issues • Enduring internal conflicts creating a constant stream of refugees: • Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan in recent years. • Occasionally from Latin America: Honduras, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador. • Blurred distinction between political and economic refugees. • Refugees are a controversial issue: • Especially in the developed world. • Only a small share of the asylum seekers are granted the refugee status. • Less than 20% for the European Union. • Increasingly, refugees are no longer accepted. • Economic refugees resorting to asylum as the only way to get a legal status.
Essay: Global Migration Global migration is a complex issue linked with differences in levels of economic development. What could be the trends shaping global migration in the coming decades?
C – Health and Epidemics The Spread of Diseases Major Epidemics The Threat of Pandemics
The Spread of Diseases Explain the differences between, endemic, epidemic and pandemic
Major Epidemics • Black Death • Europe, 14th century (the Plague) • Bacteria (Yersiniapestis) originating in Asia. • Moved through the trade routes. • Entered Europe in 1347. • Transmission by rats, fleas and coughing / sneezing: • Debate between bubonic (lymphatic system) and pneumonic (respiratory system) plagues. • 90% death rate of those infected: • Death between 4 to 7 days. • 20 million deaths; 25-33% of the European population. • May have killed 70% of the population of England. • 75 million deaths in Eurasia out of a population of 300 million.
