2012 elections in maryland
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2012 Elections In Maryland. Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli. National Results. National Results. How did the pollsters do? Gallup Tracking Poll – Sept. – Nov. 4.

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2012 Elections In Maryland

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2012 Elections In Maryland

Dan Nataf, Ph.D.

Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community College

www2.aacc.edu/csli


National Results


National Results


How did the pollsters do?Gallup Tracking Poll – Sept. – Nov. 4

Registered voters – add 3+/- to Romney for likely voters

Oct 11

Oct 3


Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll (Likely voters)


Map of Battleground States

NH

Wis

Iowa

Ohio

Nev.

Va.

Colo.

NC

Fl.


Battleground Vote Estimates 11-1


Dem Margins: EC vs. PV (1952-2012)


Popular Vote: 1952-2012


Electoral College Percentages: 1952-2012


Exit Poll: Demographics

http://reporting.sunlightfoundation.com/2012/return_on_investment/


Exit Poll: Issues


National Demographic Lessons

  • Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, African-Americans, Latinos, seculars, single, under 30

  • Lean Democratic: moderates, 30-44, women,

  • Uncertain: Suburban, Catholics

  • Lean Republican: unaffiliated/indep., white, Protestants, married, males, 45-64, 65+

  • Solid Republican: Conservatives, rural


Dems: 55 (with 2 independents)

Reps: 45

Senate:


National Results: Election findings

  • Presidential races lean Democratic but without clear hegemony

  • Senate races lean Democratic, but depends on local candidates

  • House – resists Democratic trend due to Republican gerrymandering (based on 2010 state legislative election results)

  • Shifting coalitions – “new emerging Democratic majority” underlies trend

  • Elections close enough – perfect ground game needed to win


Maryland: Presidential Results


Presidential Vote by County, % Supporting


Presidential Vote by County, 2012


Dream Act by County, % Supporting


Redistricting by County, % Supporting


Same Sex Marriage, % Supporting


All Votes by County, % Supporting (ranked by “overall”)


Lessons for State Elections

  • Democratic hegemony remains unchanging

  • Solid Democratic jurisdictions – Montgomery, PG, Charles, Baltimore City

  • Lean Democratic - Howard, Baltimore County

  • Battleground Counties: Anne Arundel, Kent, Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester


Anne Arundel County:Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012

Libertarian: ‘08 = .5 ‘12 = 1.4 Green: ’08 = .7 ‘12 = .7 Total: 1.2/2.1


Anne Arundel County:Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012


AA County: Early Vote - 2012


AA County Lessons

  • County has purple qualities – support some Democratic initiatives (SSM, redistricting) but less so others (Dream, Casinos)

  • Maximum turnout election still results in Democratic electoral minority for top of ticket

  • Local Democratic candidates still need to be cautious about distancing themselves from national and statewide candidates

  • Council districts seem evenly split: Dem: 1, 4, 6; Rep: 3,5, 7. Battleground district is 2


AAC: Obama Vote by Demographics


Dream Act by Demographic Variables


Same Sex Marriage by Demographics


Dream Act by Demographic Variables


AAC: Demographic Lessons

  • Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, Blacks (except SSM), Jews, $0-50k, seculars, single, under 30

  • Lean Democratic: moderates, 31-40, women, $150-250k

  • Uncertain: some college, BA, PostGrad work, 61-70

  • Lean Republican: unaffiliated, HS Diploma, $50-150k, >$250k, white, Protestants, Catholic, married, males, 41-60, 71+

  • Solid Republican: Conservatives, 2 year degree, Other Christians, White Evangelicals


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