2012 elections in maryland
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2012 Elections In Maryland. Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli. National Results. National Results. How did the pollsters do? Gallup Tracking Poll – Sept. – Nov. 4.

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2012 Elections In Maryland

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2012 elections in maryland

2012 Elections In Maryland

Dan Nataf, Ph.D.

Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community College

www2.aacc.edu/csli


National results

National Results


National results1

National Results


How did the pollsters do gallup tracking poll sept nov 4

How did the pollsters do?Gallup Tracking Poll – Sept. – Nov. 4

Registered voters – add 3+/- to Romney for likely voters

Oct 11

Oct 3


Washington post abc daily tracking poll likely voters

Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll (Likely voters)


Map of battleground states

Map of Battleground States

NH

Wis

Iowa

Ohio

Nev.

Va.

Colo.

NC

Fl.


Battleground vote estimates 11 1

Battleground Vote Estimates 11-1


Dem margins ec vs pv 1952 2012

Dem Margins: EC vs. PV (1952-2012)


Popular vote 1952 2012

Popular Vote: 1952-2012


Electoral college percentages 1952 2012

Electoral College Percentages: 1952-2012


Exit poll demographics

Exit Poll: Demographics

http://reporting.sunlightfoundation.com/2012/return_on_investment/


Exit poll issues

Exit Poll: Issues


National demographic lessons

National Demographic Lessons

  • Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, African-Americans, Latinos, seculars, single, under 30

  • Lean Democratic: moderates, 30-44, women,

  • Uncertain: Suburban, Catholics

  • Lean Republican: unaffiliated/indep., white, Protestants, married, males, 45-64, 65+

  • Solid Republican: Conservatives, rural


Senate

Dems: 55 (with 2 independents)

Reps: 45

Senate:


National results election findings

National Results: Election findings

  • Presidential races lean Democratic but without clear hegemony

  • Senate races lean Democratic, but depends on local candidates

  • House – resists Democratic trend due to Republican gerrymandering (based on 2010 state legislative election results)

  • Shifting coalitions – “new emerging Democratic majority” underlies trend

  • Elections close enough – perfect ground game needed to win


Maryland presidential results

Maryland: Presidential Results


Presidential vote by county supporting

Presidential Vote by County, % Supporting


2012 elections in maryland

Presidential Vote by County, 2012


Dream act by county supporting

Dream Act by County, % Supporting


Redistricting by county supporting

Redistricting by County, % Supporting


Same sex marriage supporting

Same Sex Marriage, % Supporting


2012 elections in maryland

All Votes by County, % Supporting (ranked by “overall”)


Lessons for state elections

Lessons for State Elections

  • Democratic hegemony remains unchanging

  • Solid Democratic jurisdictions – Montgomery, PG, Charles, Baltimore City

  • Lean Democratic - Howard, Baltimore County

  • Battleground Counties: Anne Arundel, Kent, Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester


Anne arundel county presidential vote 2008 vs 2012

Anne Arundel County:Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012

Libertarian: ‘08 = .5 ‘12 = 1.4 Green: ’08 = .7 ‘12 = .7 Total: 1.2/2.1


Anne arundel county presidential vote 2008 vs 20121

Anne Arundel County:Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012


Aa county early vote 2012

AA County: Early Vote - 2012


Aa county lessons

AA County Lessons

  • County has purple qualities – support some Democratic initiatives (SSM, redistricting) but less so others (Dream, Casinos)

  • Maximum turnout election still results in Democratic electoral minority for top of ticket

  • Local Democratic candidates still need to be cautious about distancing themselves from national and statewide candidates

  • Council districts seem evenly split: Dem: 1, 4, 6; Rep: 3,5, 7. Battleground district is 2


Aac obama vote by demographics

AAC: Obama Vote by Demographics


Dream act by demographic variables

Dream Act by Demographic Variables


Same sex marriage by demographics

Same Sex Marriage by Demographics


Dream act by demographic variables1

Dream Act by Demographic Variables


Aac demographic lessons

AAC: Demographic Lessons

  • Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, Blacks (except SSM), Jews, $0-50k, seculars, single, under 30

  • Lean Democratic: moderates, 31-40, women, $150-250k

  • Uncertain: some college, BA, PostGrad work, 61-70

  • Lean Republican: unaffiliated, HS Diploma, $50-150k, >$250k, white, Protestants, Catholic, married, males, 41-60, 71+

  • Solid Republican: Conservatives, 2 year degree, Other Christians, White Evangelicals


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