Commuter rail ridership update
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 31

Commuter Rail Ridership Update PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 64 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Commuter Rail Ridership Update. An addendum to the updated Commuter Rail Report released in February 2008. Prepared by: Dean Del Mastro - Member of Parliament, Peterborough Riding May 2008.

Download Presentation

Commuter Rail Ridership Update

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Commuter rail ridership update

Commuter RailRidership Update

An addendum to the updated Commuter Rail Report released in February 2008.

Prepared by:

Dean Del Mastro - Member of Parliament, Peterborough Riding

May 2008


Commuter rail ridership update

  • Peterborough/Toronto Commuter Rail is a high priority commitment of the Federal Government as indicated in the 2008 Federal Budget.

  • No other level of government has been asked to contribute toward the necessary rail infrastructure upgrades.

  • The funding for the infrastructure portion of the project has been set aside within Ontario’s share of Building Canada and will be released once Ontario signs onto the agreement.


Commuter rail ridership update

  • The 2006 Provincial Transportation for Tomorrow Survey found that over 40,000 people travel between the Peterborough – Kawartha Lakes area and the Toronto-Durham area each day.

  • While 979 of these travelers currently use transit, there remains 40,000 commuters that are traveling by car daily excluding the significantly higher number from Durham and York regions.

  • The initial report on Commuter rail suggested daily ridership of 903 persons/day from all regions along the route.

  • New data dictates that the actual rider numbers will be much greater than initially projected.


Commuter rail ridership update

  • If 3% of the current commuters traveling by car switched to rail the ridership from Peterborough and Kawartha Lakes alone will exceed 2000 persons daily.

  • Market conditions such as increased traffic congestion, substantial population growth throughout the Eastern Greater Golden Horseshoe Region as well as the new environmental reality and increased cost of gasoline dictate that past experience ridership totals cannot be used to project expected ridership for the new commuter line.

  • The population of the Peterborough-Toronto corridor has increased by 320,000 since 1990. York and Durham alone have grown 22.4% and 10.6% respectively between 1996 and 2001.


Commuter rail ridership update

  • Ontario’s population grew 6.6% between 2001 and 2006. This growth is expected to continue.

  • The Places to Grow Act, must be revised to reflect actual and expected growth of the Peterborough and Kawartha Lakes regions.

  • Rail bed structural improvements would greatly enhance commercial freight service to manufacturers and industry along the line supporting economic growth, productivity and low emission transport of goods.


Commuter rail ridership update

  • Peterborough, England is similar to Peterborough, Ontario.

  • A new city vision, including Commuter Rail was developed in 1965 and they have seen dramatic sustainable growth.

  • It now has a population of 168,000 (doubled since 1965) and over 13,700 people commute to London, England daily with 3.7 million annual rail users.

  • Peterborough, England has also benefited by major employers relocating from London to benefit from Peterborough’s skilled workforce.


Commuter rail ridership update

  • The new service - which has been committed to by the Federal Government has received the emphatic support of the following Municipal governments:

    Town of Markham

    Town of Whitby

    Region of Durham

    City of Peterborough

    City of Kawartha Lakes

    County of Peterborough

    Township of Cavan Monaghan

    Township of Smith Ennismore Lakefield

    Township of Douro Dummer

    Township of Otonabee South Monaghan


Commuter rail ridership update

Transportation Tomorrow Survey Data

  • Almost 42,000 people travel between the Peterborough-Kawartha Lakes area and the Toronto-Durham-Halton-Hamilton area each day, according to figures the Peterborough Examiner obtained from a preliminary provincial 2006 transportation study.

  • That would be the target market for the planned Peterborough-Toronto commuter rail link.

  • The Ministry of Transportation, 18 municipal governments, GO Transit and the Toronto Transit Commission conducted the survey of travel patterns.


Commuter rail ridership update

Existing Weekday Travel Patterns in Area of Proposed Rail Line to Peterborough

Based on Preliminary 2006 TTS Data

2006 Daily Person Trips Using GO Transit


Commuter rail ridership update

Existing Weekday Travel Patterns in Area of Proposed Rail Line to Peterborough

Based on Preliminary 2006 TTS Data

2006 Daily Person Trips Using Other Transit


Commuter rail ridership update

Existing Weekday Travel Patterns in Area of Proposed Rail Line to Peterborough

Based on Preliminary 2006 TTS Data

2006 Daily Person Trips – Auto (including passengers)


Commuter rail ridership update

Existing Weekday Travel Patterns in Area of Proposed Rail Line to Peterborough

Based on Preliminary 2006 TTS Data

2006 Daily Person Trips – All Modes


Commuter rail ridership update

  • In interpreting the previous tables, it appears there is currently just under 1000 person trips daily using public transit which would presumably benefit immediately from the rail line.

  • However, the interesting projection will be what percentage of the 40,000 auto trips can be enticed to switch to transit.  

  • Even a small percentage would have a large impact on ridership.


Commuter rail ridership update

2006 and 2001 Censuses

Municipality 20062001

The City of Markham (52.5%)169,642111,27677,000

City of Whitby (20.5%)135,893112,80236,698

City of Kawartha Lakes (7.0%)119,141115,83369,179

(Includes Haliburton)

Ajax-Pickering (16.9%)117,183100,24852,346

Peterborough C&C (5.7%)116,626110,887102,452

Total337,675658,485551,046


Commuter rail ridership update

  • The Peterborough-Toronto Rail Corridor population has increased by 320,810 since the VIA cancelled service in 1982. This compares to a Barrie population of 130,000. This is almost double the population from the time VIA was operating its commuter rail service. The number of commuters has also grown significantly, jamming the high capacity 401 corridor.

  • In perspective, the Station at Locust Hill serves Markham, Claremont Station services Pickering and Ajax, Myrtle Station is in Whitby and Pontypool is in the City of Kawartha Lakes. The City of Peterborough has set aside 10 acres for a new station and Wayside Power Facility.


Commuter rail ridership update

  • In the planning horizon of the Places to Grow Act, there would be an additional 563,000 jobs created along the Peterborough-Toronto Rail Corridor. However, most of the jobs are located in York and Durham with very few in the City of Kawartha Lakes and the County of Peterborough.

  • In fact, according to the report, Peterborough is not showing any job growth in the last ten years of the projections.


Commuter rail ridership update

  • Historically, the highest density of employment has been in the central area of the City of Toronto (Planning District 1 or PD1). Over 16% of the employment in the GTA is located in this area.

  • Future projections of employment suggest that the Toronto Central Area will still be the dominant employment centre, but that suburban municipalities will account for over 70% of the new employment growth to 2031.

  • The City of Toronto from 2001 to 2031 is showing an increase in 200,000 jobs. Thus the demand for commuter travel to the centre of Toronto as well as to York Region from the Region East of Durham will intensify.


Commuter rail ridership update

  • The 2020 Move Ontario Plan announced in June 2007, only included a small reference to the Peterborough-Toronto Rail Corridor. The 52 construction projects announced include 17 GO Transit commuter rail projects, of which 5 are new commuter lines.

  • Improving the Peterborough-Toronto Rail Corridor from Union Station to Claremont would serve the same purpose as the report’s proposed Claremont station which would serve Ajax and Pickering as well as the proposed Pickering Airport site.

  • Given the low additional cost of completing the upgrades through to Peterborough it is surprising that the entire project was not a part of the provinces 2020 Move Ontario Plan.


Commuter rail ridership update

Proportion of workers using public transit to get to work, census metropolitan areas, 1996, 2001 and 2006


Commuter rail ridership update

Proportion of the median commuting distance and commuting distance of workers, census metropolitan areas, 2001 and 2006

Proportion of the median commuting distance and commuting distance of workers, census metropolitanareas, 1996, 2001 and 2006


Commuter rail ridership update

  • The previous table shows that 30.8% of the workers in Oshawa travel 25 km and over to get to work.

  • The commuting distance for Peterborough shows 16.8% travel more than 25 km.

  • In Barrie, 35.2 % travel more than 25 km.

  • Interestingly, 13% of Torontonians travel more than 25 km. to get to work.


Commuter rail ridership update

Proportion of workers using a car to get to work, census metropolitanareas, 1996, 2001 and 2006


Commuter rail ridership update

Median commuting distance (in kilometres) traveled by workers in census metropolitan areas by period of construction of dwelling of residence, Canada, 2006


Commuter rail ridership update

Ridership Estimates

  • A number of ridership forecasts have been prepared for the Peterborough-Toronto service, in 1981 when it was announced VIA would discontinue the service and again in 1990 when the VIA service was discontinued permanently.

  • In 1981, the then Ministry of Transportation and Communications estimated ridership for the Toronto Havelock service would be 500 commuters/day/direction by 1991 if GO Transit were to take over the service and continue with a single train.

  • The IBI Group in 1990 estimated that the total demand on the Peterborough Line under private operation would be about 450 in 1990, 600 in 1995 and 750 by the year 2000, again based on one train per day.


Commuter rail ridership update

  • These ridership estimates were based on the 1986 Census Place of Work/Place of Residence data where the rail patronage was estimated by calculating the number of commuters from each of the communities to be served and then factoring this by the percentage of people who would use the rail service.

  • Rail mode splits of 30% for urbanized areas and 20% for non-urbanized areas were typically used. The estimates assumed that the service would be superior to regular GO Train service as it would have several amenities including full food and beverage services available at the stations.


Commuter rail ridership update

  • The 2001 Census Place of Work/Place of Residence data showed that 9,205 people in Peterborough County and City alone are commuters. If this is factored into the formula used, then the total estimated demand just for eastern portion of the commuter line increases by over 50%.

  • As a result, we estimated that the total demand on the Peterborough-Toronto commuter line would be at least 903 daily if two trains were used.

  • The Transportation Tomorrow Survey from 2006 had 41,935 people traveling from Peterborough and the Kawartha Lakes to the GTA each day.

  • If four trains were commissioned then the number of users could increase substantially with current users of GO from the area numbering 528 and commuters using other forms of transit being 451.


Commuter rail ridership update

  • Therefore there are currently 979 individuals using transit daily to commute to the GTA more than was originally projected in the October report for ridership on the entire route.

  • In the Lakeshore East corridor the estimation of diverted trips is quite complicated. While there are a number of people from north Whitby, Uxbridge and Scugog who currently use the Lakeshore East GO line who would switch to the Toronto-Peterborough service, many in this region would in fact be new transit users given the convenience as well as time and cost savings.

  • This report proposes that there would be no off-peak train service to the Peterborough-Toronto rail stations to insure that the service operates without subsidy.


Commuter rail ridership update

  • Almost 42,000 people travel between the Peterborough-Kawartha Lakes area and the Toronto-Durham-Halton-Hamilton area each day, according to figures obtained from a preliminary provincial 2006 transportation study. That would be the target market for the planned Peterborough-Toronto commuter rail link.

  • The preliminary information from the survey shows 299 people travel to Toronto from Peterborough and Kawartha Lakes using GO Transit each day. There are 229 people going the other way.

  • There are 232 people using other transit services to go to Toronto and Durham from Peterborough and Kawartha Lakes. There are 219 people going the other way.

  • Thus 531 people are using transit to go to the GTA from Peterborough and the Kawartha Lakes and 448 come from the GTA using transit.


Commuter rail ridership update

  • Therefore the base that should be considered for a reintroduced commuter rail service should be 979 riders per day from the Peterborough and Pontypool stations versus the 300 projected for the Barrie service from Barrie itself.

  • When the additional riders from Myrtle, Claremont and Locust Hill are factored in, the 903 per day estimate from the October Commuter Rail Report was far below the actual usage expected.


Commuter rail ridership update

Conclusions

  • The material presented here further reinforces the viability of the Peterborough-Toronto commuter rail service. The plan is exciting because it will meet the present and future needs of the Eastern Greater Golden Horseshoe region along the established Havelock sub-route.

  • While the original study suggested 2 trains daily in each direction, 4 trains daily in each direction can be easily justified and expected to run at capacity. That will be one of the items that needs to be examined by the joint federal-provincial implementation study.

  • I trust that this additional information clears up any confusion as to the projected ridership along the Peterborough-Toronto commuter rail corridor.

    Dean Del Mastro – Member of Parliament, Peterborough


Commuter rail ridership update

  • For more information please visit…

    www.deandelmastro.ca


  • Login