Temporary Blemishes or Lifelong Scars? Cohort fluctuations in Education and Stratification in France and United-States (1980-2005). Louis Chauvel Pr at Sciences Po Paris [email protected] http://www.louischauvel.org. My aims Theory: Cohorts, Hysteresis & Resilience
Norman Ryder 1923-2010
Methodology : the base A = P – C
BUT ! How to distinguish durable scarring effects and fads ???
Hysteresis = stability versus Resilience = resorption of scars
Methodo : Intrinsic Estimator for Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
The standard APC : identification problem solved (Wilmoth 2002)
The intrinsic estimator APC
Yang Yang, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Wenjiang J. Fu, and Kenneth C. Land. 2008. “The Intrinsic Estimator for Age-Period-Cohort Analysis: What It Is and How To Use It.” American Journal of Sociology,113(May).
% of bachelor (and+) degree owners
Cohort coefficents of the APC model of bachelor (and+) degree owners
h<0 => “resilience”: decreasing cohort fluctuations over life course.
h=0 => “hysteresis”: stability of cohort effect over life course
h>0 => “cohort Matthew effect”: increasing cohort fluctuations
Examples there :
3. Substance: diffusion of diploma and occupational prestige/class in France and the US
The file is a 1975-2008 United States Current population survey. There is no intersection with the previous file. The size of the extract containing population between age 20 and 64 is n= 1.285.367. It is an extract from IPUMS-CPS Minnesota site.
The French file is similar: a « Enquête Emploi » (1975-2008) cumulative file (size of the extract containing people between age 20 and 64 is n=942 550).
Source : Enquêtes emploi 1970-2005 N= 774.424
4. Results: strong effects in France with no resilience weak effect in the US and resilience
H = -.1986096 CI=[-.2959371; -.1012821]
4. Results: strong effects in France with some resilience weak effect in the US and hysteresis
H = -.1053799 CI = [-.2738079 ; .063048]
H not sign diff to 0
5. Discussion: France (Mediterranean europe) and the problem of youth
In France http://www.louischauvel.org/frenchpolcultsoc.pdf
In the U.S.