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Jim Hosler, Owner Demographic Decision Dynamics, LLC demographic3d jim@demographic3d

Hillsborough County Deserves Better Why the One Percent Sales Tax For Transit Should Not Be On the Ballot. Jim Hosler, Owner Demographic Decision Dynamics, LLC www.demographic3d.com jim@demographic3d.com. So, why not let the public vote?.

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Jim Hosler, Owner Demographic Decision Dynamics, LLC demographic3d jim@demographic3d

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  1. Hillsborough County Deserves BetterWhy the One Percent Sales Tax For Transit Should Not Be On the Ballot Jim Hosler, Owner Demographic Decision Dynamics, LLC www.demographic3d.com jim@demographic3d.com

  2. So, why not let the public vote? • Vote on what? Cost? Revenue? Operating and maintenance? • If Tampa wants it, let them pass it…incredible disservice to unincorporated Hillsborough County • There is no business plan, voters deserve respect • The reputation of the BOCC…it is HC’s institution • Elected bodies should only transit technically and financially sound proposals to the voters… • IF we need transit in the future, another failure won’t help • Transit is for congestion…what congestion for transit? • The underlying demographic data supporting the need for transit are a SCIENTIFIC FRAUD…outside peer review? • Stop Staff From Spending Anymore $$$ on This NOW!!!

  3. Problems with rail transit…in general • No scientific evidence of a benefit to the economy • Greatest positive impact within .25 miles of station stops • Economic benefits of mass transit always involve a TRANSFER of wealth or jobs within a region • FTA – cost overruns are a “common phenomenon” • Harms the bus component if revenue and ridership drops…most flexible component

  4. Problems with rail transit…specific examples • All the current evidence in support is anecdotal • Boston – cannot support itself with a one percent sales tax • D.C. Metro -- $36 million in Stimulus funds and $150,000,000 in more Federal funds this year • Charlotte – 51% increase in cost of future expansions…$48 million per mile for first 9 miles, $101 million per mile for expansion • Phoenix – Expansion is on hold due to decline in sales taxes and increase in costs

  5. What is the Theory behind all the hype and enthusiasm??? • New Urbanism and/or Neo-Traditional Planning • A return to the good ole days when we all road trains to work and walked to the store? • We are all SUPPOSED TO desireDisney’s Celebration • Land Planning was invented at the University of Chicago as a reaction to “Big Business”…evil big business • The AICP designation was invented in the 1970’s…a professional designation to control lives • “They know better”…permeates the 1% tax proposal • It is like a RELIGION…non-believers simply can’t see the light…two types of hubris

  6. Current events… • Article in Forbes… • Tampa Bay has the worst commute in the country • Really…look at the methodology • If the article supports anything, it supports a regional approach • Our 1% Tax is only for Hillsborough… • High Speed Rail half-promise • Judge the likelihood of the follow-on money…2010?? • Look at the source…the Fed’s don’t have the money • Another reason to wait on the politics

  7. Current events continued… • The Mayor “suggests” how the BOCC can spend it’s tax money…the 25% going to roads • Proposes that the 25% will equal $2.4 Billion over 30 years…don’t worry about the details of the offer • $2.4 Billion is 25% of $9.7 Billion over 30 years • Assumes an average annual collection $324 Million • At it’s peak in 2006, the CIT was collecting the 1% equivalent of $214 Million • Can any of this current bureaucracy be trusted? • BOCC is dancing to the tune of the Mayor

  8. “Bureaucratic Inertia”…change since the Task Force formed in 2006 • Max Weber, 1921, “Once a bureaucracy is fully established, it is the hardest to change” • Coupled with ideology and a compliant press, bureaucracy steamrolls common sense • Those bureaucracies with the most to gain – MPO and HART – are using tax dollars to promote the tax by “educating the public” • Scientific fraud, yes fraud • The BOCC is feeling the weight of this inertia…where are their spines?

  9. Just Say No, Because… • Bureaucratic Inertia…Staff are still spending Millions and will not stop unless the BOCC votes no on the ballot initiative • The Sales Tax is regressive and unstable • The underlying demographic projections are, scientifically fraudulent • Too many unknowns…no methodology, just politics and the City of Tampa, selected Transit Routes One and Two • Local governance issues – TBARTA, Eminent Domain and City of Tampa interference

  10. If raising taxes is necessary, timing is horrible…BIG IF!!! • And, transit will not create permanent, private jobs • Nearly half of local homeowners are upside-down in mortgages • Tampa Bay record # of bankruptcies 2009 – 28,504 December 2006 (HC) • 570,121jobs • 18,808unemp. • 3.2%unemp. rate November 2009 (HC) • 530,839 jobs • 70,143unemp. • 12.1%unemp. rate

  11. Timing horrible…continued • Raising local taxes will add to the uncertainty coming from Washington and Tallahassee • Value-Added-Tax coming from the Feds? • Health care and carbon tax increases? • Why put ourselves at a local disadvantage for planning theory? • Florida – lost a net of 31,179 residents due to net out-migration 08-09…1st to 45th in migration since 2000

  12. Sales Tax is Regressive and Unstable • Unstable 1st: 75 Recession & 81 Recession in Fla.? • Unitary Tax and the Sales Tax on Services proposed in the early 1980’s • In FY2006, we collected $107,000,000 in CIT, and in FY2009 we collected $89,000,000 • 6% annual increases prior to 2006 have turned into 10% annual declines… • Debt Service? $29 Million in 08/09 – 1/3 of the Collection – they will want to bond this 1% • At what cost?

  13. CIT Trend Line…Collections for 0.5 Cent Since Inception Does this look stable? What is the trend-line? Is this bondable, and at what cost? Demographic Decision Dynamics, LLC www.demographic3d.com jim@demographic3d.com Source: Hillsborough County Finance

  14. Sales Tax is Regressive… • Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, 11/09 • Florida: Second most REGRESSIVE TAX SYSTEM – Fla. poor pay a much larger share of income to taxes • Sales Tax already consumes 9.4% of income for LT $17,000 in Fla.…almost 14% with property taxes • How would you like to pay 10% of your income in Sales Tax? • The new one cent will make Hillsborough County the most regressive county in the second most regressive state!! • And, for what? Planning theory??

  15. Underlying Demographic Projections are a Scientific Fraud…known for over a year • Admittedly created to be “transit friendly” • Hillsborough has had net out-migration for at least two years…need to wait on the 2010 Census benchmark • 2000-2009: 18.4% of growth in City of Tampa • 2006-2025: 38.6% of growth in the City of Tampa, according to new fraudulent projections • What incentives would be needed to make this shift happen? Cash and the City’s Land Development Code for a future Mayor • NW Hills. & Greater Brandon built-out??

  16. Fraudulent data continued… • Tampa’s Core: South of Hillsborough and North of SR60 (including downtown and Harbor Island) in City limits • Net of 91,000 residents added (06-25) – over 38,000 new homes –”taken from” Unincorporated HC • Net of 100,000 new jobs added to Tampa’s Core • Inconsistent with the rest of all the comp. plans & elements – water, wastewater, schools, parks, etc. • Would existing Tampa Core residents want the growth if they knew about it? • Are the Unincorporated County’s water & wastewater bonds or future bonding capacity in jeopardy?

  17. Bad investment due to unknowns • Routes seem to change every month • No business plan…why should the public loan money when a bank would not? • Why were transit routes 1 and 2 selected? Politics… • Does the State have the 25% match? • What if we pass the 1% tax, and the Feds or State don’t contribute? • HART grant application with FTA is apparently only for transit routes 1 and 2 • What about the other routes…Another penny(s)?? Bait and Switch??

  18. BAIT AND SWITCH? HOW MANY MORE 1% SALES TAXES NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM?

  19. Governance issues, and Odds and Ends • Why isn’t TBARTA in the lead? Why not share the risk? • Does our MPO and HART have the organizational capacity? • A citizens committee as oversight – – it will still be getting its data from the MPO and HART, trust us?? • Which agency is going to conduct the many years-worth of eminent domain actions? • Rail transit needs replacement like roads…how will it be funded? Substitute for the user’s fee of the gas tax? • Odds and ends… • Tampa-Centrist proposal…Urban Service Area FOREVER?? • USF employment HUB…more grant $$ don’t = jobs • Cars are not going away…serious emergency evacuation issues

  20. THANK YOU FOR LISTENINGPlease join me in asking the BOCC to stop spending $$$ on this on March 17 Jim Hosler Demographic Decision Dynamics, LLC www.demographic3d.com jim@demographic3d.com

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