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EFCC Weather Outlook. 5 June 2012. Fire Season Key Elements. From NWCC. Below normal snowpack Early snowmelt Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August

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Presentation Transcript

Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack

  • Early snowmelt

  • Long term drought

  • Below normal June rainfall

  • Dry July / August

  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)


Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack

  • Early snowmelt

  • Long term drought

  • Below normal June rainfall

  • Dry July / August

  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)


Snow Water Equivalent

By River Basin


Snow Water Equivalent

By River Basin


Snow Water Equivalent

By River Basin


Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES

  • Early snowmelt

  • Long term drought

  • Below normal June rainfall

  • Dry July / August

  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)


Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES

  • Early snowmelt

  • Long term drought

  • Below normal June rainfall

  • Dry July / August

  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)


Snow Water Equivalent

Mt. Hood Test Site

Last Year

So Far

Average


Snow Water Equivalent

Cascade Summit (Central Cascades)

Last Year

Average

This Year


Snow Water Equivalent

Wolf Creek (NE Mountains)

Last Year

Average

This Year


Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES

  • Early snowmelt - YES

  • Long term drought

  • Below normal June rainfall

  • Dry July / August

  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)


Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES

  • Early snowmelt - YES

  • Long term drought

  • Below normal June rainfall

  • Dry July / August

  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)


Drought Monitor

May 29th, 2012


Drought Monitor

May 29th, 2012


Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES

  • Early snowmelt - YES

  • Long term drought – YES (South Central)

  • Below normal June rainfall

  • Dry July / August

  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)


Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES

  • Early snowmelt - YES

  • Long term drought – YES (South Central)

  • Below normal June rainfall

  • Dry July / August

  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)



Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES

  • Early snowmelt - YES

  • Long term drought – YES (South Central)

  • Below normal June rainfall - No

  • Dry July / August

  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)


Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES

  • Early snowmelt - YES

  • Long term drought – YES (South Central)

  • Below normal June rainfall - No

  • Dry July / August

  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)


Precipitation Probability

July, August, September


Temperature Probability

July, August, September


Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES

  • Early snowmelt - YES

  • Long term drought – YES (South Central)

  • Below normal June rainfall - No

  • Dry July / August - YES

  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)


Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES

  • Early snowmelt - YES

  • Long term drought – YES (South Central)

  • Below normal June rainfall - No

  • Dry July / August - YES

  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)


Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES

  • Early snowmelt - YES

  • Long term drought – YES (South Central)

  • Below normal June rainfall - No

  • Dry July / August - YES

  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

  • Remains to be Seen


El Niño/La Niña Predictions

Various Forecasting Techniques

El Niño

La Niña


El Niño/La Niña Predictions

Various Forecasting Techniques


ENSO Neutral Summers

500mb Height


ENSO Neutral Summers

500mb Height Anomaly


ENSO Neutral Summers

850mb Temperature Anomaly


Analog Years

El Niño/La Niña


Analog Years

El Niño/La Niña

Paul Werth

1951

20091963

1976


Analog Years

El Niño/La Niña

Paul Werth

1951

20091963

1976

Pete Parsons

1951

19722009


Analog Years

El Niño/La Niña

Paul Werth

1951

20091963

1976

Pete Parsons

1951

19722009

Jim Little

1963

19722001

2009

1975

2000



EFCC Weather Outlook

Bottom Line

  • In many respects a rather “average” summer

  • Driest areas east of Cascades

  • Driest months August and September

  • Best chances for dry lightning August and September


EFCC Weather Outlook

5 June 2012

Questions?

Contact [email protected]


EFCC Weather Outlook

5 June 2012

Questions?

Contact [email protected]


EFCC Weather Outlook

5 June 2012

Questions?

Contact [email protected]


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