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EFCC Weather Outlook. 5 June 2012. Fire Season Key Elements. From NWCC. Below normal snowpack Early snowmelt Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August

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Presentation Transcript
slide3

Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack
  • Early snowmelt
  • Long term drought
  • Below normal June rainfall
  • Dry July / August
  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
slide4

Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack
  • Early snowmelt
  • Long term drought
  • Below normal June rainfall
  • Dry July / August
  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
slide5

Snow Water Equivalent

By River Basin

slide6

Snow Water Equivalent

By River Basin

slide7

Snow Water Equivalent

By River Basin

slide8

Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES
  • Early snowmelt
  • Long term drought
  • Below normal June rainfall
  • Dry July / August
  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
slide9

Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES
  • Early snowmelt
  • Long term drought
  • Below normal June rainfall
  • Dry July / August
  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
slide10

Snow Water Equivalent

Mt. Hood Test Site

Last Year

So Far

Average

slide11

Snow Water Equivalent

Cascade Summit (Central Cascades)

Last Year

Average

This Year

slide12

Snow Water Equivalent

Wolf Creek (NE Mountains)

Last Year

Average

This Year

slide13

Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES
  • Early snowmelt - YES
  • Long term drought
  • Below normal June rainfall
  • Dry July / August
  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
slide14

Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES
  • Early snowmelt - YES
  • Long term drought
  • Below normal June rainfall
  • Dry July / August
  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
slide15

Drought Monitor

May 29th, 2012

slide16

Drought Monitor

May 29th, 2012

slide17

Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES
  • Early snowmelt - YES
  • Long term drought – YES (South Central)
  • Below normal June rainfall
  • Dry July / August
  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
slide18

Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES
  • Early snowmelt - YES
  • Long term drought – YES (South Central)
  • Below normal June rainfall
  • Dry July / August
  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
slide20

Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES
  • Early snowmelt - YES
  • Long term drought – YES (South Central)
  • Below normal June rainfall - No
  • Dry July / August
  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
slide21

Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES
  • Early snowmelt - YES
  • Long term drought – YES (South Central)
  • Below normal June rainfall - No
  • Dry July / August
  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
slide22

Precipitation Probability

July, August, September

slide23

Temperature Probability

July, August, September

slide24

Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES
  • Early snowmelt - YES
  • Long term drought – YES (South Central)
  • Below normal June rainfall - No
  • Dry July / August - YES
  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
slide25

Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES
  • Early snowmelt - YES
  • Long term drought – YES (South Central)
  • Below normal June rainfall - No
  • Dry July / August - YES
  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
slide26

Fire Season Key Elements

From NWCC

  • Below normal snowpack - YES
  • Early snowmelt - YES
  • Long term drought – YES (South Central)
  • Below normal June rainfall - No
  • Dry July / August - YES
  • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
  • Remains to be Seen
slide27

El Niño/La Niña Predictions

Various Forecasting Techniques

El Niño

La Niña

slide28

El Niño/La Niña Predictions

Various Forecasting Techniques

slide30

ENSO Neutral Summers

500mb Height Anomaly

slide31

ENSO Neutral Summers

850mb Temperature Anomaly

slide32

Analog Years

El Niño/La Niña

slide33

Analog Years

El Niño/La Niña

Paul Werth

1951

20091963

1976

slide34

Analog Years

El Niño/La Niña

Paul Werth

1951

20091963

1976

Pete Parsons

1951

19722009

slide35

Analog Years

El Niño/La Niña

Paul Werth

1951

20091963

1976

Pete Parsons

1951

19722009

Jim Little

1963

19722001

2009

1975

2000

slide37

EFCC Weather Outlook

Bottom Line

  • In many respects a rather “average” summer
  • Driest areas east of Cascades
  • Driest months August and September
  • Best chances for dry lightning August and September
slide38

EFCC Weather Outlook

5 June 2012

Questions?

Contact [email protected]

slide39

EFCC Weather Outlook

5 June 2012

Questions?

Contact [email protected]

slide40

EFCC Weather Outlook

5 June 2012

Questions?

Contact [email protected]

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