CLIMATE CHANGES IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-EASTERN PART OF FORMER POLAND FROM 1 656 TO 1 685

1. CLIMATE CHANGES IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-EASTERN PART OF FORMER POLAND FROM 1656 TO 1685 Rajmund Przybylak Department of Climatology, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Lwowska 1, 87-100 Toruń, Poland, rp11@umk.pl

2. INTRODUCTION (1) • Instrumental meteorological data for Poland are available for the last 220-232 years. For this period two air temperature series (from Warsaw and Cracow) are available (Trepińska 1997, Lorenc 2000), • To reconstruct the history of pre-instrumental climate in Poland the three types of proxy data have been used: documentary evidence, dendrochronological data and geophysical data (Przybylak et al. 2004, 2005, 2010), • The majority of the reconstructions is based, however, on documentary evidence (e.g. Sadowski 1991; Bokwa et al. 2001; Limanówka 2001; Przybylak et al. 2004, 2005, 2010).

3. INTRODUCTION (2) • The aim of the present paper is to reconstruct climatic conditions and climate changes in the central and north-eastern parts of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (hereafter Poland) for the period 1656-1685 based on a diary written by Jan Antoni Chrapowicki. • Chrapowicki was a nobleman who was a Vitebsk Voivode and a member of the Polish parliament. He began keeping his diary in 1656 and continued it up to his death on 3rd November 1685.

4. Jan Antoni Chrapowicki

5. Jan Antoni Chrapowicki – Diariusz, first part 1656-1664

6. Examples of weather notes from Diariusz (after Nowosad et al. 2007)

7. Number of days in a year for which weather notes are available in the Chrapowicki’s diary(after Nowosad et al. 2007)

8. Area of investigations(after Przybylak et al. 2010) 1 – Masovien region (Warsaw), 2 – Podlasie region (Grodno) and southern Lithuania, 3 – Minsk region, 4 – Vitebsk and Mscislav region

9. Periods of stays of Jan Antoni Chrapowicki in different regions of Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (after Nowosad et al. 2007)

10. DATA and METHODS (1) -Original diary written by J.A. Chrapowicki (1656-1664) and its 19th century copy (1665-1667) as well as the 18th century copy (1667-1685) have been used to reconstruct daily, monthly, seasonal and annual temperature and precipitation conditions, - Temperature characteristics of each day were classified as above normal (index +1), below normal (-1) or normal (0),

11. Register of Chrapowicki’s notes which were base for indexation of thermal conditions (after Nowosad et al. 2007)

12. DATA and METHODS (2) - For each month the average thermal index was calculated using the simple arithmetic mean of the daily indices and then, working from all the monthly indices, the annual average index was calculated, - On the other hand, seasonal indices were calculated using the proposal made by Pfister et al. (1994) of adding the monthly indices for each season (DJF, MAM etc.). In this way seven different thermal characteristics of seasons have been obtained: extremely warm (+3), very warm (+2), warm (+1), normal (0), cold (-1), very cold (-2) and extremely cold (-3). - For the general category of “days with precipitation” we classified those days for which, in Chrapowicki’s notes, information about different kinds of precipitation (rain, snow, drizzle etc.) was recorded, regardless of the intensity of this precipitation.

13. DATA and METHODS (3) • Up to now, climatic reconstructions based on Chrapowicki’s diary were made only for the period 1656-1667 for which original diary and its 19th century handwritten copy exist (e.g. Bokwa et al. 2001; Nowosad et al. 2007). • The 18th century handwritten copy of the Chrapowicki’s diary contains many shortenings and simplifications and, as a result, some omissions of information concerning weather in notes have been documented (for details see Nowosad et al. 2007). Thus, without correction, this rich source of information cannot be used.

14. Comparison of contents of notes from the same days in 18th and 19th centuries handwritten copies of Chrapowicki’s Diary (after Nowosad et al. 2007)

15. DATA and METHODS (4) • Temperature and precipitation corrections have been introduced based on the hypothesis that during the whole period of Chrapowicki’s diary (1656-1685) the climate was stationary. The existing climate reconstructions for this period (e.g., Briffa et al. 2002; Przybylak et al. 2005) confirm the correctness of this hypothesis.

16. DATA and METHODS (5) Number of days with temperaturebelow normal (blue line), normal (green line), and above normal (red line). In 1668 the homogeneity of the series was break.From this year onward there is significantly more/less normal/below normal days. Original data.

17. DATA and METHODS (6) Procedure of temperature corrections for the period 1668-1685. Annual data. 1. The original annual number of days with particular indices (-1, 0, +1) were multiply by values of the ratio between their frequencies in the periods 1656-1667 and 1668-1685. 2. If the obtained number of days for a given year was different than 365 or 366 than the corrections were introduced using the average relations between the frequencies of occurrence of particular indices.

18. DATA and METHODS (7) Number of days with temperaturebelow normal (blue line), normal (green line), and above normal (red line). Corrected data

19. DATA and METHODS (8) Procedure of temperature corrections for the period 1668-1685. Monthly data. 1. Monthly average values of indices have been calculated separately for the periods 1656-1667 and 1668-1685 based on the original data, 2. Monthly average differences of values of indices have been calculated between periods 1656-1667 and 1668-1685, 3. The average differences calculated in this way have been added to the original values of monthly indices from the period 1668-1685.

20. DATA and METHODS (9) Procedure of precipitation (number of days with precipitation) corrections for the periods 1656-1657 and 1668-1685. Monthly and annual data.

21. DATA and METHODS (10) 1. Gaps in the monthly series have been filed using their average values calculated for the period 1671-1684, excluding 1680, 2. Average monthly numbers of days with precipitations have been calculated for the periods 1658-1667, 1671-1684 (except 1680) and five years : 1656, 1657, 1668, 1669, 1680 having significantly more precipitation days (>95 days) than other corrected years,

22. DATA and METHODS (11) 3. Ratios between average monthly numbers of precipitation in the period 1658-1667 (homogeneous series) and the aforementioned two groups of years have been calculated, 4. Ratios calculated in this way have been used as a multiplier to correct wrong values in the periods 1656-1657 and 1668-1685.

23. RESULTSAIR TEMPERATURE

24. Annual relative frequency of occurrence of days with below normal (blue line), normal (green line) andabove normal (red line)thermal conditions in the central and north-eastern part of Poland from 1656 to 1685

25. Annual average values of thermal indices in the central and north-eastern part of Poland from 1656 to 16851 – correction based on monthly data, 2 – correction based on annual data

26. Monthly average values of thermal indices in the central and north-eastern part of Poland from 1656 to 1685

27. Annual course of average values of thermal indices in the central and north-eastern part of Poland, 1656-1685

28. Values of thermal seasonal indices in the central and north-eastern part of Poland from 1656 to 1685

29. The April-September temperature anomalies in reference to 1961-1990 mean for the central and north-eastern Poland, Belarus and Lithuania (estimated by the first author using maps of grid-box anomalies published by Briffa et al. 2002)

30. RESULTSPRECIPITATION

31. Annual number of days with precipitation in the central and north-eastern part of Poland, 1656-1685(upper figure – before correction, and lower figure - after correction)

32. The driest year - 1676 The figure shows that in 1676 occurred the lowest number of days with precipitation (112) of all analysed 30 years from the period 1656-1685. This is in accordance with the note written by Chrapowicki in his diary: „Tego roku straszne Panowały Susze, że zboża wypalało w Polach” (ang. ‘This year terrible droughts prevailed, that cereals were burned on fields’.

33. Annual course of number of days (n) with precipitation in the central and north-eastern part of Poland from 1656 to 1685

34. Annual courses of number of days (n) with snowfall, rainfall and rainfall with snowfall in the central and north-eastern part of Poland from 1658 to 1667

35. Annual courses of number of days (n) with precipitation in the north-eastern part of Poland and in Belarus from 1931 to 1960 (for Vitebsk: 1971-2000)

36. Annual courses of number of days (n) with snow in the north-eastern part of Poland from 1931 to 1960

37. Differences in number of days with precipitation (n) between historical (1658-1667 (a), 1656-1685 (b)) and modern (1931-1960) periods

38. Differences in number of days with snowfall (n) between historical (1658-1667) and modern (1931-1960) periods

39. Diary of Chrapowicki is a very valuable source of information about weather and climate in second half of the 17th century in Poland, It seems to us that the index method is useful for study of this kind of documentary evidence, The analysis showed that the thermal conditions in the study period were colder than present, and also colder than the average weather conditions during Chrapowicki’s life (1612-1685). CONCLUSIONS (1)

40. CONCLUSIONS (2) • The greatest negative temperature anomalies occurred in spring (in particular in April) and autumn (October), while summer and winter were near the historical norm. However, in comparison to the present conditions historical winters were significantly colder, while summers were slightly warmer (see Przybylak et al. 2004, 2005), • Precipitation conditions, estimated according to their frequency of occurrence, seem to be similar to the present conditions.

41. Thank you very much for your attention