Analyzing Industry Employment Characteristics Presented by Greg Weeks, Ph.D.

1. Analyzing Industry Employment Characteristics Presented by Greg Weeks, Ph.D. Washington State Employment Security Department Director Labor Market and Economic Analysis April 10, 2008 Doubletree Guest Suites Hotel Phoenix, AZ

2. QCEW LEHD Industry Projections Staffing Patterns Sources of Industry Information Available from LMI Shops

3. QuarterlyCensus of Employment and Wages (QCEW)

4. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages • Funded by BLS. • There is a QCEW program in every state. • The data is collected and published at the national level by BLS.

5. QCEW began as result of Social Security Act of 1935 Officially started in 1938 with the inception of the national UI system Collected data to determine if UI programs were in compliance with the Act QCEW History

6. In 1972 technical responsibility transferred to BLS. During the 1980’s BLS launched several projects to improve the quality of the data. Including adding new data elements and multiple worksite locations. QCEW History (cont)

7. What isn’t covered/included: Sole proprietors Domestics under $1000 per quarter Family farms under $20,000 quarterly payroll Exempt corporate offices College work-study students Church employees Self employed Independent Contractors Certain commissioned salespeople Active Military Railroad Employees Covered vs Non-covered Employment

8. According to the BLS website, “QCEW, best describes this program, as we are a virtual census of employment in the United States, covering 99.7% of wage and salary civilian employment.” Covered vs. Non-covered (cont)

9. Quarterly Press Releases, Annual Employment and Wages • Job Creation/Destruction • Size Class Dynamics • Business Survival Rates Geocoded Establishments Industrial Price Program National Compensation Survey Current Employment Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics Occupational Safety and Health Statistics Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey Uses Of Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Data • Local Economic Development Indicators • Clusters Analysis • Shift Share • Industry Diversity Indexes • Location Quotients Current Employment Statistics Gross Domestic Product (BEA) Occupational Employment Statistics Personal Income (BEA) Minimum Wage Studies State Revenue Projections Occupational Safety and Health Statistics Economic Forecasting Jobs Openings & Labor Turnover Survey General Economic Uses Benchmarking (Employment Base) Quarterly Census of Employment & Wage Data Analytical Uses Sampling • Interagency Data Uses • Improve CPS After 2000 Census • LEHD • Industry Code Sharing Programmatic Uses Local Government Services Planning UI Tax Rate & Actuarial Analysis Local Economic Impact Response Planning UI-Covered Employment Local Area Unemployment Local Transportation Planning Mass Layoff Statistics Federal Funds Allocation $175 Billion (HUD, USDA, HCFA/CHIP)

10. Industry detail Number of companies, employment, wages Historic benchmark County, State, national Ability to do custom geographies QCEW is available through state LMI websites, BLS website, and through the state LMI economic analysts

11. Industry distribution for an area Summary and details Employment trends over time Comparisons between industry /area Rates of change Employment by size of company Small area analysis QCEW will reveal:

12. Industry distribution

13. Employment over time

14. Comparisons

15. Rates of change

16. Employment by size

17. Small area analysis

18. Industry distribution for an area Summary and details Employment trends over time Comparisons between industry /area Rates of change Employment by size of company Small area analysis QCEW will

19. The LED program is a partnership between the member states (soon to be all but MA) and the Census Bureau. States contribute UI wage files and the QCEW data. Census contributes age and gender information and a LOT of data processing and data analysis. The program returns a lot of easily accessible data and state specific databases, which we will summarize in a few minutes. The data returned to the states are not microdata. The LED data is “fuzzed” so that detailed data can be presented for very small geographies and detailed industry level (up to 4-digit). Hallmarks of the program include: shared governance (Census Bureau staff plus elected state representatives); a Culture of Innovation; QCEW program provides baseline industry data, but LED goes several steps further

33. LMI Shops have access to detailed LED databases

34. . tab yearqtr if sex == 0 & agegrp == 0 & county == 0 & naics == "31-33", summa > rize (emp) | Summary of Emp yearqtr | Mean Std. Dev. Freq. ------------+------------------------------------ 19902 | 336808 0 1 19903 | 343100 0 1 19904 | 340617 0 1 19911 | 319957 0 1 19912 | 320757 0 1 19913 | 329689 0 1 19914 | 330409 0 1 19921 | 313766 0 1 19922 | 318013 0 1 19923 | 322543 0 1 19924 | 320413 0 1 19931 | 307187 0 1 19932 | 313342 0 1 19933 | 318629 0 1 19934 | 317335 0 1 19941 | 302381 0 1 19942 | 307925 0 1 19943 | 316260 0 1 19944 | 319463 0 1 19951 | 307931 0 1 19952 | 313107 0 1 19953 | 314671 0 1 19954 | 298291 0 1 19961 | 305734 0 1 19962 | 313205 0 1 19963 | 325220 0 1 19964 | 333329 0 1 19971 | 325441 0 1 19972 | 338960 0 1 19973 | 354261 0 1 19974 | 356826 0 1 19981 | 348432 0 1 19982 | 352670 0 1 19983 | 359502 0 1 19984 | 356134 0 1 19991 | 341338 0 1 19992 | 340996 0 1 19993 | 343972 0 1 19994 | 341028 0 1 20001 | 327127 0 1 20002 | 327209 0 1 20003 | 330008 0 1 20004 | 328245 0 1 20011 | 305568 0 1 20012 | 303081 0 1 20013 | 306430 0 1 20014 | 296730 0 1 20021 | 275456 0 1 20022 | 277000 0 1 20023 | 281247 0 1 20024 | 274047 0 1 20031 | 263161 0 1

37. Industry Projections UI Claims Occupations within Industry Current Employment Statistics Other Data Sources

38. QCEW and LEHD lead the way Detailed industry level information Multiple characteristics Industry, size, age, gender Trend and Compare County based plus.. Other In Summary

39. THANK YOU! Greg Weeks (360) 438-4804 gweeks@esd.wa.gov