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EGSA “Pulse” Report: 2009

Market Trends Committee. EGSA “Pulse” Report: 2009. John Hoeft Advanced Marketing & Technology Insight. Topics. Survey Need Methodology Results Conclusions Outlook Market Trends Committee Tools. Methodology. Direction and objectives Develop the plan Target companies/members

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EGSA “Pulse” Report: 2009

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  1. Market Trends Committee EGSA “Pulse” Report: 2009 John Hoeft Advanced Marketing & Technology Insight

  2. Topics • Survey Need • Methodology • Results • Conclusions • Outlook • Market Trends Committee Tools

  3. Methodology • Direction and objectives • Develop the plan • Target companies/members • 1368 Members • 700 member companies • 15% participation • Obtain approval • Conduct the market research • Analyze and summarize

  4. Estimated power generation related sales in 2008?

  5. Which of the following best describes your business? The majority (81.8%) of the respondents are from an OEM or in an OEM’s dealer network (n = 105).

  6. Which of the following best describes your role? The majority of the participants (91%) are in executive management or sales & marketing related positions.

  7. Company's employee growth (or reduction) in the past 6 months?

  8. Company's employee growth (or reduction) in the next 12 months?

  9. Company’s anticipated power-gen sales growth: 2009 vs2008?

  10. Company’s capacity changes (i.e. floor space, assembly, machinery): past 6 months?

  11. Company’s capacity changes (i.e. floor space, assembly, machinery):next 12 months?

  12. Other than your own company, whom do you consider to be your best supplier/vendor of power gen related equipment and/or services?

  13. Why is this supplier/vendor the best in your opinion?

  14. SURVEY CONCLUSIONS The respondents from the EGSA survey represented a wide cross section of the market. Survey responses displayed a good distribution of the data. Many of the business related answers were “unchanged” (neutral) responses. • As expected, sales are down in most cases. The impact of the weakened power gen market seems significant with over 54% of respondents indicating either no change or negative sales growth from 2008 to 2009. • The major engine and genset manufacturers have collectively laid-off thousands of assemblers and office personnel. They have implemented furloughs or rolling layoffs in an effort to conserve cash flow and avoid additional layoffs of additional key company talent. • Based on indications from declining employee growth, changes in sales from 2008 to 2009 and capacity changes over the past year, it appears the power generation market is down as much as 30%. • Survey respondents do, however, seem relatively optimistic that the market for power generation will rebound somewhat in the coming year. This conclusion is supported by the fact that over 41% of respondents expect their employee workforce to increase during the next year and 34.3% are planning for capacity increases.

  15. Outlook • “Trough” - hit between April and August depending on where you are in the power gen supply chain • Bottoming in the July-August time frame • Quoting activity is increasing • Even More Optimism than “Pulse” Report • Expecting a “flat-reverse” with 2010 vs 2009 • 2011 Emissions Rules: “Another game changer”

  16. Outlook: Global Economic Indicators 11 Indicators: Real federal fund rates, Interest rate yield curve, Corporate bond spread, Hours worked, Building Permits, Non-defense capital goods orders, Money supply, Stock prices, Stock prices, ISM export orders index, Crude oil prices, Light vehicle sales

  17. Outlook: Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI)

  18. Outlook: Copper (London Metal Exchange)

  19. Survival Tips in (or on the way out of) a Recession • Stick to fundamentals. Know your customer base. Get out in the field more. Don’t forget to define longer term strategy during these difficult times. • Stop wringing your hands and get out there, understand what the current needs are and find ways to reconfigure your expertise to serve those needs. • Look for affordable ways to get the message out… grassroots marketing. Do not lower prices but add value to what you are doing. Those who live by price will die by price. • Measure. Measure. Measure. Wouldn’t invest in anything without a clear metric for success.

  20. Market Trends Committee Brian Berg – Bergari Solutions John Hoeft – Advanced Marketing &TI Kyle Tingle – John Deere Chuck Westhofen – Atlas Copco Roddy Yates – Baldor Joe Zirnhelt – Power Systems Research Greg Linton – JRS Custom Fabrication A Special “Thank you” All of the Participants Winner of the $200 Gift Card: Tom Clifford, Clifford Power Systems

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