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FCHLPM Standards Revisions and Monroe County Realities

FCHLPM Standards Revisions and Monroe County Realities. A Presentation to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodologies Prepared by the Grassroots Organization FIRM Fair Insurance Rates in Monroe September 2008. Outline.

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FCHLPM Standards Revisions and Monroe County Realities

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  1. FCHLPM Standards Revisions and Monroe County Realities A Presentation to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodologies Prepared by the Grassroots Organization FIRM Fair Insurance Rates in Monroe September 2008

  2. Outline • Additional and updated data requested by FCHLPM from FIRM during the August 12-13, 2008 Meeting • Claims Data from Equivalent Storms • Wind Swath Data • Strike Probabilities • Changes to FCHLPM Standards • Impact of Non-U.S. Land Masses • Local Building Codes • Metal Roofs • Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses • Geography • Conclusion • Appendices • Background of FIRM • FIRM Board of Directors • Reference Contact Information Slide 2 May 24, 2014

  3. FIRM’s Assertion • Most models predict that the highest windstorm insurance rates in the state should be charged in Monroe County. • Actual experience does not support these high rates. • The models do not accurately reflect the realities of Monroe County and thus inaccurately predict our risk. Slide 3 May 24, 2014

  4. Actual Claims Experience When winds blow equally strong throughout the state, property damage from wind is lower in Monroe County than elsewhere. Wilma and Katrina are prime examples. TO READ: In Katrina, windstrengths were lower in St. Lucie County than Monroe County, yet Citizens windstorm claims paid were higher. SOURCE: Citizens Property Insurance claims as of February 28, 2006, and the National Weather Service Note: FIRM has not yet been able to acquire updated claims data by storm from Citizens Property Insurance Corporation. Slide 4 May 24, 2014

  5. Actual Experience: Hurricane Katrina 2005 Maximum Winds In Hurricane Katrina, Gusts and Sustained Winds in Palm Beach, Collier and St. Lucie Counties were lower than in Monroe County, yet claims were higher. SOURCE: Tropical Cyclone Report, Hurricane Katrina, 23-30 August 2005, by Richard D. Knabb, Jamie R. Rhome, and Daniel P. Brown, National Hurricane Center, 20 December 2005. Note: There were no observation locations in St. Lucie County listed in the report. Slide 5

  6. Actual Experience: Hurricane Katrina 2005 Wind Swaths • Maximum wind speeds in Collier, Palm Beach and St. Lucie counties were equal to or less than those in Monroe County during Hurricane Katrina 2005. • Paid wind claims in Collier, Palm Beach and St. Lucie counties were higher per thousand dollars of exposure than in Monroe. St. Lucie $32.83 Palm Beach $5.42 Collier $5.06 Monroe $2.63 SOURCE: NOAA / AOML Hurricane Research Division, http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/katrina2005/wind.html Slide 6

  7. Actual Experience: Hurricane Wilma 2005 Maximum Winds In Hurricane Wilma, Gusts and Sustained Winds in Dade County were lower than in Monroe County, yet claims were higher. SOURCE: Tropical Cyclone Report, Hurricane Wilma, 15-25 October 2005 by Richard J. Pasch, Eric S. Blake, Hugh D. Cobb III, and David P. Roberts, National Hurricane Center, 12 January 2006 Slide 7

  8. Actual Experience: Hurricane Wilma 2005 Wind Swaths • Maximum wind speeds in Miami-Dade County were comparable to those in Monroe County during Hurricane Wilma in 2005. • Paid wind claims in Miami-Dade County were higher per thousand dollars of exposure than in Monroe. $6.38 $2.67 SOURCE: NOAA / AOML Hurricane Research Division, http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/wilma2005/wind.html Slide 8

  9. Actual Claims Experience: 2005 Storm Season Updated claims data by storm for 2005 has not yet been provided by CPIC. However, looking at data as of July 2008 for the season in total, we again see that Monroe County had the lowest loss per $1,000 of exposure in South Florida. SOURCE: Citizens Property Insurance claims as of July 2008 and NOAA Coastal Services Center Slide 9 May 24, 2014

  10. Strike Probabilities • Strike Probabilities vary based on data sets, time frames and other criteria used by statisticians. • While Monroe County may be more vulnerable to tropical activity than other areas, the magnitude of the difference in vulnerability is not as great as models and windstorm insurance rates would suggest. SOURCE: www.floridahurricane.net Slide 10 May 24, 2014

  11. Strike Probabilities: Category 1 Return Frequency by Storm Intensity • While there is some discrepancy in the numbers of storms by category, it is clear that the Keys are about as likely as most of south Florida to be hit with a Category 1 hurricane. SOURCE: National Hurricane Center Slide 11 May 24, 2014

  12. Strike Probabilities: Category 2 Return Frequency by Storm Intensity • A Category 2 Storm will hit Miami-Dade/Broward once every six years, and hit the Keys once every seven or or eight years. SOURCE: National Hurricane Center Slide 12 May 24, 2014

  13. Strike Probabilities: Category 3 Return Frequency by Storm Intensity • A Category 3 storm is likely to hit southeast mainland Florida more frequently than the Keys. SOURCE: National Hurricane Center Slide 13 May 24, 2014

  14. Strike Probabilities: Category 4 Return Frequency by Storm Intensity • A Category 4 storm is likely to hit southeast mainland Florida more frequently than the Keys. SOURCE: National Hurricane Center Slide 14 May 24, 2014

  15. Strike Probabilities: Category 5 Return Frequency by Storm Intensity • A Category 5 storm is likely to hit southeast mainland Florida more frequently than the Keys. SOURCE: National Hurricane Center Slide 15 May 24, 2014

  16. Strike Probabilities: Return Frequency by Category in Key Coastal Areas per FSU According to an historical study by Florida State University, low intensity storms occur in the Keys about as frequently as in panhandle counties, and higher intensity storms occur more frequently in other southeast Florida counties than in Monroe. Note that according to this study, no Category 5 storms occurred anywhere other than Monroe. Hurricane Andrew was a Cat 5 storm that hit Miami-Dade in 1992. Data used in modeling should be fully vetted for accuracy. SOURCE: Data extrapolated from maps of storms by frequency at FSU study online at http://gis.coaps.fsu.edu/httpdocs/Rtrn.php Slide 16

  17. Strike Probabilities: Return Frequency by Category in South Florida per CSU Data from a Colorado State University study of storms between 1900 and 2006 paints a different picture for strike probabilities in the Keys. However, this study includes the large, unpopulated and uninsured portion of Monroe County that is on the mainland. SOURCE: United States Landfall Probability Webpage By Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, Colorado State University, With Assistance From Uma Shama, Larry Harman, and Daniel Fitch, GeoGraphics Laboratory, Bridgewater State College,http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/Full%20Data%20Table.xls Slide 17

  18. Assertion & Recommendation • Actual wind claims are lower in Monroe County due to a combination of engineering, meteorological and geographical factors. Thus, rates in Monroe County should not be the highest in the state. • The FPHM and private models that are employed in rate-setting do not adequately reflect Monroe County realities. • Proposed changes to modeling standards would address these issues for Monroe and other coastal barrier communities. Slide 18 May 24, 2014

  19. Impact of Non-U.S. Land Masses on Intensity: Cuba • The 100-mile coastline of the Florida Keys has been hit by a Category 5 storm only once, in 1935. • The mountains of Cuba are 90 miles away from the Florida Keys. Mountainous regions create friction and generally reduce the intensity of storms that pass over them, and this has frequently been the case in the Keys. Ninety miles is too short a distance over open water for most storms to re-build in intensity. Florida Keys Cuba Slide 19 May 24, 2014

  20. Impact of Non-U.S. Land Masses: Cuban Mountains • There are three mountainous areas of Cuba in particular that can weaken a storm that crosses over them. Slide 20 May 24, 2014

  21. Impact of Non-U.S. Land Masses: Hurricane Charley 2004 • Charley originated from a tropical wave, developing into a tropical depression on August 9 about 115 miles south-southeast of Barbados. The depression strengthened within a low-shear environment to a tropical storm early the next day in the eastern Caribbean, and became a hurricane on the 11th near Jamaica. Charley's center passed about 40 miles southwest of the southwest coast of Jamaica, and then passed about 15 miles northeast of Grand Cayman as the hurricane reached category 2 strength on the 12th. • Charley turned to the north-northwest and continued to strengthen, making landfall in western Cuba as a category 3 hurricane with 120 m.p.h. maximum winds. Charley weakened just after its passage over western Cuba; its maximum winds decreased to about 110 m.p.h. by the time the center reached the Dry Tortugas around 8 am on the 13th. SOURCE: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml#charley Slide 21 May 24, 2014

  22. Impact of Non-U.S. Land Masses: Hurricane Charley 2004 • Hurricane Charley did not have the opportunity to draw energy from warm water and build in intensity as it crossed Cuba, and it actually diminished in intensity. Key West SOURCE: National Weather Service Slide 22 May 24, 2014

  23. Impact of Non-U.S. Land Masses: Hurricane Dennis 2005 • Hurricane Dennis weakened from a Category 4 to a Category 1 storm as it crossed Cuba. SOURCE: www.wunderground.com Slide 23 May 24, 2014

  24. Impact of Non-U.S. Land Masses: Hurricane Gustav 2008 • Likewise, Hurricane Gustav emerged weaker after crossing the western Cuban mountains and never regained its pre-Cuba strength. SOURCE: www.wunderground.com Slide 24 May 24, 2014

  25. Impact of Non-U.S. Land Masses: Hurricane Ike 2008 • As of Monday, September 8, 2008, at 4:30 p.m., Hurricane Ike had weakened from a Category 4 to a Category 1 storm as it crossed Cuba. SOURCE: www.wunderground.com Slide 25 May 24, 2014

  26. Local Building Codes & Conventions • Monroe County has had the strictest building code for all construction (residential, commercial-residential, and commercial) in the state for the longest period of time. • As of 1982, the Standard Building Code required Monroe County to have the state’s highest windspeed rating for a 3-second gust. • Since 2002, Monroe County structures have been constructed and renovated to withstand 150 MPH gusts. • Shutters are the norm, not the exception, in the Keys, and have been required for all new construction in Monroe County since 1990. Slide 26 May 24, 2014

  27. Local Building Codes and Conventions: Monroe County • Monroe County follows the wind speed standards set by ASCE 7. • 1987: Monroe County’s minimum wind load standard was 115mph. • 1990: all new construction required shutters. • 1998: ASCE 7 upgraded from 115 to 135MPH (for fastest wind speed). • Monroe County currently has the highest wind load in the state (Monroe is now 150 vs. Miami-Dade at 146). • Compared to other nearby counties, Monroe County buildings would better withstand winds from a strong hurricane such as Andrew because Monroe County has: • No mass production • Properties that are site-built and therefore individually inspected • Stronger codes • Height restrictions SOURCE: August 26, 2008 interview with Joe Paskalik, Monroe County Building Official Slide 27 May 24, 2014

  28. Local Building Codes and Conventions: Key West • As long ago as 1969, new construction in Key West in particular exceeded extant code, requiring: • All hollow masonry walls to be a minimum of 8” thick • Tie beams at each floor and roof, with four #5 reinforcing bars and #3 stirrups not less than 8” x 12“ apart • Corners cast in place with five #5 bars and #3 ties at 12”, and poured solid • At all doors and windows, one #5 reinforced bar, poured solid and tied to the footer beam SOURCE: Key West Building Department Slide 28 May 24, 2014

  29. Local Building Codes and Conventions:Gable and Hip Roofs • In the Keys, many gable roofs are strapped or tied to the walls to prevent uplift. Current code requires this. • In addition, there are many hip roofs (proven to be more wind-worthy) in the Keys which receive mitigation credits. Gable Roofs Hip Roofs Slide 29 May 24, 2014

  30. Local Building Codes and Conventions: Monroe County Roof Types The majority of roofs in the Keys are gable or hip roofs. SOURCE: Monroe County Property Appraiser, August 28, 2008NOTE: Properties are visited approximately once every 5 years, so data may not be real-time. Slide 30 May 24, 2014

  31. Metal Roofs • Metal roofs have been proven to be more wind-worthy than shingle or asphalt roofs which are standard in the Florida Building Code. • Keys construction conventions require plywood rather than manufactured products as the sheathing material. • Metal roofs are more impervious to UV degradation than other materials. • V-crimp metal roofs do not produce wind-borne debris to the extent that shingle or tile roofs do. SOURCE: Annalise Mannix, P.E., City of Key West Slide 31 May 24, 2014

  32. Metal Roofs: Predominance in Monroe County Metal roofs are the most prominent in the Keys, followed by Asphalt Shingles (FBC standard). Concrete and clay tile roofs that are more likely to contribute to wind-borne debris are rare. SOURCE: Monroe County Property Appraiser, August 28, 2008NOTE: Properties are visited approximately once every 5 years, so data may not be real-time. Slide 32 May 24, 2014

  33. Metal Roofs: Predominance in Key West • Metal roofs are increasingly common in Monroe County, particularly in Key West. • Between 2002 and 2006, 95% of roofs replaced in Key West were V-crimp metal roofs compliant with the FBC’s 150MPH gust standards. • Nearly one-third of all Key West roofs are under 10 years old. SOURCE: Key West Building Department Slide 33 May 24, 2014

  34. Local Building Codes and Conventions: Development Constraints • Development in Monroe County is subject to a Rate of Growth Ordinances (ROGO). • A limited number of permits is issued yearly. • Property owners earn “points” to help them qualify for building permits. • Prior to adoption of the FBC in 2002, building to meet and exceed standards for wind-worthiness helped property owners earn more ROGO points. SOURCE: Monroe County Building Department Slide 34 May 24, 2014

  35. Local Building Codes and Conventions: Sturdy Older Structures • Key West is the most densely populated region of Monroe County. • Key West has one of the largest collection of historic wood-frame homes (2,350) in the country. • The density of historic structures in “Old Town” Key West helps minimize wind damage there. • These homes have withstood storms for well over 100 years due to specific construction conventions, including: • Pin and dowel joinery • Metal roofs • Sheer interior walls • Relatively low height • Heavy beams • Double wood wall construction SOURCE: Diane E. Silvia, Ph.D., Executive Director, Historic Florida Keys Foundation, September 11, 2008 Slide 35 May 24, 2014

  36. Local Building Codes and Conventions: Sturdy Older Structures • Further, at least half of these homes have been substantially reinforced during renovation with the addition of features such as hurricane clips, creating a much younger effective age than “age of home” (determined by original construction date) would suggest. When homes are significantly remodeled, they must meet current building codes. • Average year of construction for all Keys homes: 1976 • Average effective age of all Keys homes: 11 years SOURCE: These ages were calculated from data provided on August 28, 2008 by the Monroe County Property Appraiser’s office from data collected 1900 through 2008. “Effective age” takes into account significant renovations such as new roofs, kitchen/bath remodels, etc. Slide 36 May 24, 2014

  37. Local Building Codes and Conventions: Height Restrictions • Monroe County’s Comprehensive Plan places a 35-foot limit on building height in the Keys. The only exceptions to this regulation are equipment towers and certain equipment on the roofs of commercial structures. • Most residential structures in Key West, the most densely populated area of the Keys, are under 25 feet tall. • Wind speeds are measured at 10 meters (~33 feet), and intensify with increasing height. Slide 37 May 24, 2014

  38. Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses • The Keys are a low-lying chain of islands, with the highest elevation at 14 feet. (1) • According to meteorologists at the National Weather Service, the greatest threat to the Keys from Category 3 and higher hurricanes predicted by SLOSH models is from storm surge, not wind. Any wind damage that would occur would be washed away by the surge.(2) Thus, flood insurance would pay first and most for the greatest portion of damage occurring from a significant hurricane. • Wilma, a storm many consider to be the “100-year storm,” demonstrated this. • NOAA Satellite and Information Service, http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/georges/georges.html • Matt Strahan, Meteorologist in Charge, National Weather Service, Key West Slide 38 May 24, 2014

  39. Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: SLOSH Model • Storm surge predictions are generally based on the SLOSH Model. This model does not necessarily work in the Keys. • The SLOSH model covers inland areas. The Keys have none. • The SLOSH model does not take into account the wave action that we experience in the Keys due to our low elevation. • Experience in direct-hit storms bears this out: Models predicting surge based on the SLOSH model may under-predict flooding in the Keys, thus leading to over-prediction of wind damage. SOURCE: Matt Strahan, Meteorologist in Charge, National Weather Service, Key West

  40. Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: Inundation by Hurricane Strength Most of the Florida Keys would flood in a storm of Category 2 or greater. A Category 3 or higher storm would cause significant flood damage. SOURCE: Monroe County Emergency Management Slide 40 May 24, 2014

  41. Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: Hurricane Donna 1960 in Marathon • Marathon is a community in the center of the Keys. • The average elevation of Marathon is 3 feet (1) to 7 feet (2) above sea level. (1) http://www.city-data.com/city/Marathon-Florida.html (2) http://www.usacitiesonline.com/flcountymarathon.htm Slide 41 May 24, 2014

  42. Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: Hurricane Donna 1960 Hurricane Donna was a Category 4 storm that struck Marathon in the center of the Florida Keys in 1960 with peak winds of 140 mph and a storm surge of 12 to 14 feet. SOURCE: National Weather Service, Key West, September 11, 2008 Slide 42 May 24, 2014

  43. Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: Hurricane Donna 1960 Much of the damage from Hurricane Donna was caused by storm surge. When storm surge (flood) and wind both cause damage, flood pays first. SOURCE: National Weather Service, Key West, September 11, 2008 Slide 43 May 24, 2014

  44. Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: Key West Inundation by Hurricane Strength Only a few blocks in Old Town Key West would escape flooding in a Category 5 storm. SOURCE: Monroe County Emergency Management Slide 44 May 24, 2014

  45. Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: Hurricane Wilma in Key West, 2005 • Hurricane Wilma passed Key West approximately 75 miles to the north as a Category 3 storm. • The storm surge flooded 60% of the island. SOURCE: National Weather Service,http://www.srh.noaa.gov/key/HTML/wilma/wilma.html: City of Key West Engineering Department Slide 45 May 24, 2014

  46. Geographic Factors:Linear Geography Due to the 120-mile long linear geography of populated and insured Monroe County, it is likely that a storm could impact one area of the chain and not impact another at all. PML calculations should take this into account. Key Largo Tavernier Islamorada Marathon Big Pine Key Key West Slide 46 May 24, 2014

  47. Geographic Factors:Category 1 Storm Tracks Actual storm tracks suggest that it is unlikely that a single storm will equally impact the entire island chain. Assertions that storms routinely “track” along US1 in the Keys and thus impact all the insured properties in Monroe County are not supported by experience. Historically, only two category one storms have taken a track that would make landfall in the Keys more than once: Floyd and Inez. SOURCE: NOAA Coastal Services Center, http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html Slide 47 May 24, 2014

  48. Geographic Factors:Category 2 Storm Tracks The not named storm of 1929 is the only Cat 2 storm that intercepted Monroe County twice, once in Key Largo and a second time in the uninhabited area of Monroe north of Flamingo in the Everglades. SOURCE: NOAA Coastal Services Center, http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html Slide 48 May 24, 2014

  49. Geographic Factors:Category 3 Storm Tracks The not named storm of 1909 followed along the coastline of the middle Keys but not the lower Keys. SOURCE: NOAA Coastal Services Center, http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html Slide 49 May 24, 2014

  50. Geographic Factors:Category 4 Storm Tracks No category 4 storms hit the Keys in more than one area. Note that Hurricane Andrew is included here as a Category 4 storm, even though it was upgraded to a Category 5 storm in February 2005. Also note that the “not named” storm of 1935 is listed here as a Category 4 storm. SOURCE: NOAA Coastal Services Center, http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html Slide 50 May 24, 2014

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