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Modeling Updates CRFS—Technical Meeting November 14, 2012

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Modeling Updates CRFS—Technical Meeting November 14, 2012. Forecasting and Modeling Updates. 24-Month Study Recent Enhancements (implemented May 2012) Potential Enhancements Mid-Term (Probabilistic) Operations Model (MTOM). Recent Enhancements (implemented May 2012).

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Modeling Updates

CRFS—Technical Meeting

November 14, 2012

forecasting and modeling updates
Forecasting and Modeling Updates
  • 24-Month Study
    • Recent Enhancements (implemented May 2012)
    • Potential Enhancements
  • Mid-Term (Probabilistic) Operations Model (MTOM)
24 month study recent enhancements
24-Month Study Recent Enhancements
  • No changes to methods or modeling assumptions
  • No changes to model results
  • Purpose of enhancements
    • “Clean Up” Model Workspace
    • Improve Transparency, Consistency, Efficiency
24 month study recent enhancements1
24-Month Study Recent Enhancements
  • “Clean Up” Model Workspace
    • Remove unused data objects
    • Remove “unused” and misleadingly named reach object
  • Improve transparency of model
    • Rename objects to more intuitive and descriptive names
  • Make 24-Month Study and MTOM more consistent
    • Yearly data slots vs repetitive monthly data slots
  • Added efficiencies to process
    • Ruleset in “reverse” priority order
    • Added Lower Basin Surplus rules
24 month study potential enhancements
24-Month Study Potential Enhancements
  • Lees Ferry Intervening flows
    • Changes to reporting
    • Changes to model configuration to support reporting
  • No changes to methods or modeling assumptions
  • No changes to model results
  • Purpose of enhancements
    • More accurately project future flow at Lees Ferry streamgage
    • Fix “double reporting” of historic flows between Glen Canyon Dam and Lees Ferry streamgage
    • Improve transparency and consistency
24 month study report lake powell page
24-Month Study Report Lake Powell Page
  • Lees Ferry Column
    • Current:

Future Flow = GCD release

  • Potential Change:

Future flow = GCD release + 5-yr avg of intervening flow

slide9

24-Month Study Report Lake Mead Page

  • Side Inflow Column
    • Current:

Side Inflow = 5-yravg of (side inflows above Lees Ferry + side inflows below Lees Ferry)

  • Potential Change:
  • Side Inflow = 5-yr avg of side inflows below Lees Ferry
slide10

24-Month Study Model Configuration

  • Add additional Reach to PowellToMead Aggregate Reach
    • Separates out flows
    • Sum of reaches remains the same
  • Modify Data Management Interfaces (DMIs)
    • move data from model to report

“Mock up” of potential change to model

24 month study potential enhancements1
24-Month Study Potential Enhancements
  • Lees Ferry Intervening flows
    • Changes to reporting
    • Changes to model configuration to support reporting
  • No changes to methods or modeling assumptions
  • No changes to model results
  • Potential Implementation: Jan/Feb 2013
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